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A Cold War-era probe initially tasked with touching down on Venus in the 1970s is anticipated to plummet back to Earth soon in an uncontrolled descent. The whereabouts of the re-entry and the extent of the debris that may endure the atmospheric plunge remain uncertain, space debris monitoring specialists report.
Predicted Re-entry Date and Velocity
Dutch astronomer Marco Langbroek forecasts that the defunct probe will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10. He predicts a plunging speed of 150 mph (242 km/h) if the object remains undamaged.
Assessing Risks and Probabilities
『While not entirely risk-free, undue concern is unwarranted,』Langbroek conveyed via email.
The object is comparatively small, and even if it remains whole, “the danger is akin to that of an arbitrary meteorite fall, several of which occur annually. You are more likely to be struck by lightning in your lifetime.”
The likelihood of the probe colliding with someone or something is minimal, he further noted. “However, the possibility cannot be absolutely discounted.”
Historical Context: The Kosmos 482 Mission
The probe, designated Kosmos 482 by the Soviet Union, was launched in 1972, part of a sequence of Venus adventures. Nevertheless, a rocket glitch confined it to Earth’s orbit, never releasing it into deep space.
Gradual Orbital Decay
Most of its components fell back to Earth within a decade.
Yet, the landing capsule—an approximately 3ft (1m) spherical entity might have been circling the globe in an elongated orbit for the last 53 years, progressively losing altitude.
Enduring Structural Integrity
Langbroek, an academic at Delft University of Technology, states that the over-1,000lb (nearly 500kg) probe could potentially survive the re-entry. Its conception was to endure the dense, carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere of Venus.
Experts are doubtful about the parachute system’s functionality after such a prolonged duration.
The protective heat shield could also be jeopardized following such an extended orbital voyage.
Prospects for Survival and Impact
Astronomer Jonathan McDowell, affiliated with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, suggested that a malfunction of the heat shield would expedite incineration during the atmospheric dive. However causing the spacecraft to burn up upon re-entry, “If the heat shield remains intact, it will re-enter whole, resulting in a half-ton metal object free-falling from the sky.”
Global Landing Zones
The probe could re-enter anywhere between 51.7 degrees North and South latitude, stretching from London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada—travelling nearly to South America’s Cape Horn. Since most of Earth’s surface is ocean, ” there is a strong likelihood it will descend into some ocean,” Langbroek asserted.
Previous Uncontrolled Re-entries
In 2022, an unmanned Chinese booster rocket made a uncontrolled return to Earth. In 2018, the Tiangong-1 space station re-entered the atmosphere and crashed over the southern Pacific.