Importance Score: 87 / 100 🟢
While Ukraine and Gaza have captured global attention, the likelihood of an even larger conflict looms in Asia. China has not abandoned its ambitions over the neighboring island democracy of Taiwan, a pledge leader Xi Jinping has made and likely needs to address by the next Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in 2027. Beijing also continues to engage in disputes with another U.S. ally – the Philippines – over the pivotal South China Sea. Moreover, despite a current temporary easing of tensions, the border dispute between China and India remains unresolved.
The Geopolitical Stakes in Asia
China’s Strategic Goals
For China, the situation revolves around the concept of ‘encirclement.’ Taiwan is positioned within the ‘first island chain’ of Western-aligned states, which presently hinders the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from expanding its influence into the Pacific. If China fails to breach this barrier, it cannot realize Xi Jinping’s enduring objective of achieving geopolitical equality with the U.S. China cannot afford to delay this ambition.
U.S. Interests and Regional Alliances
Moreover, the U.S. cannot afford to permit this shift in power dynamics. Dominance of Asia by China would jeopardize America’s alliance networks in the region and might even undermine the dollar’s supremacy. This is largely due to the U.S. Navy’s crucial role in safeguarding key maritime routes.
The UK’s Role and Challenges
The Economic and Military Implications
What does this mean for the UK? Besides the economic repercussions for a major trading nation if a global war erupts in Asia, the UK—being the second most powerful Western military—would find it challenging to stay uninvolved.
While the UK managed to remain on the sidelines during the Vietnam War, a new conflict would be distinct, particularly if both the U.S. and nearby Australia become embroiled. At the very least, the UK would almost certainly serve as a major arms supplier.
The UK’s Strategic Preparedness
The recent controversy over relinquishing the UK’s Chagos Islands—home to the critical UK-U.S. bomber base on Diego Garcia—to the Maldives, a key Chinese ally, suggests how the UK might struggle to avoid engagement.
Grappling with underfunding and low morale, numerous reports highlight the British Armed Forces’ lack of readiness for a significant conflict, despite recent commitments to allocate 2.5% of GDP to military spending.
Scaled back since the Cold War, the current global landscape necessitates heightened spending on troops and equipment. Prioritizing UK advancements in weaponry and securing access to critical raw materials are also essential. Although climate change poses a genuine threat, ensuring the UK’s energy security is paramount. Securing access to:
- Fuels
- Water
- Energy
- Other vital resources
is of utmost importance.
The UK is likely unable to maintain splendid isolation in this turbulent era. Instead, Britain must brace for the growing probability of a significant conflict.