Importance Score: 70 / 100 🔴
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices eased on Tuesday morning, trading in a narrow range as warm weather curbed heating demand.
The benchmark Dutch front-month contract (TRNLTTFMc1) was down 0.23 euro to 31.62 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or $11.50/mmBtu, by 0826 GMT, while the June contract (TRNLTTFMc2) was down 0.66 euro at 31.74 euros/MWh, according to LSEG data.
The British front-month contract was down 1.10 pence at 76.00 pence per therm, while the day-ahead contract (TRGBNBPD1) was down 1.20 pence at 76.00 p/therm.
Temperatures across north-west Europe are forecast above-average until next week before dropping from May 5-9. Demand for heating is forecast to decline by 217 gigawatt hours per day (GWh/d) on the day ahead to 1001 GWh/d, LSEG data showed.
Norwegian flows to Northwest Europe fell by 9 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d) due to a maintenance-related cut at Ormen Lange that will last until late May, but this was priced in some time ago and is unlikely to have an additional impact on prices, said LSEG analyst Yuriy Onyshkiv.
“Our price projection today is sideways amid largely unchanged fundamental picture,” he added.
The market is still waiting for signs of progress towards a peace deal between Moscow and Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday declared a three-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine in May to mark the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Soviet Union and its allies in World War Two.
Putin’s move appeared aimed at signalling that Russia is still interested in peace – something that Ukraine and its European allies dispute – as President Donald Trump’s administration in Washington grows impatient with stuttering efforts towards a deal.
EU gas storage facilities are quickly heading to 40% full and staying close to the 2022 trend line which saw aggressive injection rates over the summer months, consultancy Auxilione said in a morning note.
In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) was down by 0.73 euro to 64.58 euros per metric ton.