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Major British oil firms are projected to experience a near $4 billion decline in profits next week, as global energy prices face a downturn following tariff actions. This analysis examines how these market shifts impact industry giants.
Oil Giants Face Profit Dip Amid Tariff Impacts
BP’s Projected Earnings Decline
BP’s profits are anticipated to decrease to $1.6 billion in the initial three months of 2025, a notable drop from $2.7 billion during the same period the prior year. The company is scheduled to release its quarterly financial results on Tuesday.
Shell’s Anticipated Profit Reduction
Shell’s earnings are also expected to diminish, with forecasts indicating a drop to $5.1 billion in the first quarter of this year. This represents a significant decrease from the $7.7 billion reported in the corresponding period of 2024. The figures are based on estimates from market data provider Refinitiv. Shell is slated to announce its results on Friday.
Factors Contributing to the Profit Decline
The decline in profits can be attributed to a steady decrease in global oil prices, largely driven by growing concerns regarding a slowdown in demand from several countries, particularly China, a substantial oil consumer.
- Brent crude, the international benchmark, has decreased by approximately 12% year-to-date, trading at around $67 per barrel.
- Oil prices had been gradually decreasing since January.
- A sharper fall occurred earlier this month following the implementation of extensive tariff measures, aimed at reshaping global trade.
Impact of Tariffs on Demand
The implemented tariffs have raised concerns about potential disruptions to global supply chains, which may reduce shipping and various forms of travel. This, in turn, is expected to lower the demand for fuel.
OPEC+ Production Increases
Further compounding the issue is the decision by the OPEC+ cartel, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates, to elevate crude oil production, leading to a surplus in supply.
Challenges for Oil Companies
BP’s Strategic Pivot
Lower oil prices could pose a substantial hurdle for BP as it seeks to redirect its focus back to fossil fuels, reversing a previous strategy that emphasized green energy under its former leader, Bernard Looney.
Pressure on BP’s Leadership
CEO Murray Auchincloss is facing considerable pressure from activist investors, including Elliott Management, to enhance the company’s performance. The challenge is amplified by the current low oil prices.
Leadership Changes at BP
Chairman Helge Lund is set to resign next year. Recent reports also suggest that Elliott Management is now targeting Giulia Chierchia, BP’s head of strategy, who played a crucial role in the firm’s shift towards green energy.
Shell’s Production Goals
Shell is also encountering difficulties as it aims to boost fossil fuel production under the leadership of CEO Wael Sawan.
Production Forecast Adjustments
Earlier in the month, Shell reduced its oil and gas production forecast for the first quarter, citing unexpected maintenance and cyclone-related disruptions affecting output from certain wells.
Shell’s Strategic Reorientation
Sawan has been instrumental in Shell’s strategic shift towards oil and gas, decreasing the group’s investment in green energy to improve its overall value and better compete with U.S. competitors like Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
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