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Alberta Independence: Western Separatist Movement Gains Momentum in Canada
The surge in separatist sentiment, particularly in Western Canada, is posing a challenge alongside external pressures like those from US President Donald Trump. Frustration over a perceived decade of Liberal governance has fueled calls for separation among some western Canadians.
In Lethbridge, Alberta, Dennis Modry addressed a crowd of around 100 people, posing questions about Alberta’s potential paths forward.
- A small group favored a larger role for Alberta within Canada.
- Roughly half supported a separation to form an independent nation.
- Another considerable portion expressed interest in Alberta joining the United States.
Modry, a retired heart surgeon, co-leads the Alberta Prosperity Project, which champions an independence referendum.
The possibility of a split has been a recurrent theme in this traditionally conservative area. Recent impetus stems from Trump’s suggestion of Canada becoming the 51st state and the ensuing rise in Liberal Party poll numbers before the election.
Modry noted to the BBC that the movement for separation has expanded, partly due to Trump’s pronouncements.
“We’re not interested in that,” he stated, advocating instead for “Alberta sovereignty.”
However, Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer and rancher from Calgary and another co-founder of the project, showed more openness to the idea of joining the US, despite prioritizing independence.
Rath commented, “We have a lot more culturally in common with our neighbors to the south in Montana… [and] with our cousins in Texas, than we do anywhere else.”
Rise of Western Alienation and Calls for Independence
The prospect of a unity crisis, formerly relegated to the fringes, is now part of mainstream dialogue.
Preston Manning, an influential figure in Canadian conservatism with Albertan roots, cautioned in the Globe and Mail that “large numbers of Westerners simply will not stand for another four years of Liberal government, no matter who leads it.”
He criticized the Liberal Party for mishandling national issues and disregarding the concerns of western Canadians, arguing, “A vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession – a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.”
This “western alienation,” a longstanding sentiment of being overlooked by Ottawa politicians, persists. Alberta and Saskatchewan, rich in oil and gas, have long felt underrepresented despite their significant economic contribution
That resentment deepened under the leadership of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as his Liberal government implemented initiatives and environmental regulations that some Albertans considered to be a direct assault on their regional income.
Polls indicate that Liberals, currently under Mark Carney, were possibly aiming for their fourth consecutive victory during election day. The support originated from Ontario and Quebec—eastern provinces hosting most of the population—further amplifying the regional divisions.
Voter Sentiments and Political Challenges
Judy Schneider, whose spouse is employed with an oil entity in Calgary, expressed to the BBC her willingness to vote “yes” to independence if the chance were to arise.
She contested Carney’s claim as a westerner, despite his upbringing in Edmonton, Alberta’s capital, as he had been away from Canada for much of the prior decade.
“He can come and say ‘I’m from Alberta,’ but is he?” Ms. Schneider inquired.
While an independent Alberta remains unlikely—with recent polls indicating that only about 25% of Albertans would vote in favor—a majority of Canadians believe the matter warrants seriousness, as per separate polls.
Political analysts suggest that these divisions pose a hurdle for the forthcoming prime minister, particularly if Carney emerges victorious. Even a triumph for Calgary-raised Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre “would not solve the imbalance that presently exists between the East and the West,” according to Modry.
Fueled by this sentiment, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith of the United Conservative Party has pursued independent trade discussions with the US, despite the federal government and other provincial leaders maintaining coordinated efforts with each other. She also met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
Smith has publicly cautioned of a “national unity crisis” if the new prime minister fails to meet Alberta’s demands—primarily the abolition of Trudeau-era environmental laws to stimulate oil and gas output—within six months post-election.
Despite dismissing outright separation as “nonsense,” critics accuse Smith of inflaming tensions during what many view as a critical juncture for Canada’s future.
Divergent Views Within the Separatist Movement
Even advocates within the movement hold different perspectives on achieving their objectives.
Lorna Guitton, a lifelong Albertan volunteering with the Alberta Prosperity Project, indicated her aspiration of establishing a better rapport with the rest of Canada.
She characterized the current union as “broken” and believes a referendum—or the potential of such—could empower Albertans during future negotiations with Ottawa.
Guitton also refuted any concept of Alberta becoming a 51st US state.
“They’ve got enough of their own problems. Why would I want to be part of that?” She said, “I would rather be my own independent, sovereign province, or a province with a better deal in Canada.”
However, at his ranch outside of Calgary in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, Mr. Rath takes a different perspective.
While tending to his horses, he spoke about the mutual agreement between Albertans and many Americans by mentioning the political view of free enterprise and limited government.
“From that perspective, I would see Alberta as being a good fit within the United States,” he said.
He’s presently assembling a “fact-finding” team to visit Washington DC to directly present the movement to the Trump executives.
Many voters in Alberta, though, completely disregard the concept of independence, even when they see how the province has been disregarded.
Steve Lachlan of Lethbridge acknowledges the underrepresentation of the West in Ottawa but stated: “We already have separation, and we need to come together.”
The Liberals are not entirely excluded from the province either. Surveys that suggest Alberta might be sending more Liberal affiliates for the elections in Ottawa since 2021, partially a direct consequence of demographic shifts which then prompted the new areas in urban Edmonton and Calgary.
James Forrester, residing in the competitive Calgary Centre seat, told the BBC that, in the past, he had regularly voted conservative, however, in recent years, has leaned more toward the left. This moment, he plans to show support due to the “Carney factor.”
“I feel he’s the best guy to deal with Trump,” he said.
As for the separation sentiment, “I’m not worried about it.”