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A recent study indicates that Iowa residents may face the highest risk of lung cancer within the next decade. Researchers at the University of California San Diego conducted a comprehensive survey of 1.7 million Americans across all 50 states to track cigarette use rates from 1992 to 2022 and project future trends. Projections suggest that Iowa could have the highest rate of smoking in the United States by 2035.
Decline in Smoking Rates Across the US
The study revealed a significant decrease in smoking rates nationwide since the early 2000s, dropping by over 60 percent, from 23 percent to 9.4 percent.
- Utah reported the lowest smoking rate in 2022 at 4.4 percent.
- Maine registered the highest rate at 16.4 percent.
Despite the overall decline, experts predict that by 2035, the national smoking rate will dip to around five percent. However, Iowa’s rate is expected to remain stable at approximately 16 percent, potentially making it the state with the highest smoking prevalence.
The Link Between Smoking and Lung Cancer
Smoking remains the leading cause of lung cancer, accounting for 80 to 90 percent of cases. This devastating disease remains the deadliest and third-most common cancer in America, with approximately 226,000 new cases and 130,000 deaths annually.
Researchers caution that while smoking is decreasing, the impact on lung cancer rates will take significantly longer to manifest in areas with historically high smoking rates.
Study Methodology
The research team analyzed data from the US Census Bureau on smoking habits and tobacco usage from 1992 to 2022. This included survey responses from 1.7 million Americans across 54,000 households. Participants shared their smoking habits and history.
Key Findings: 1992-2022
- From 1992 to 2001, the national smoking rate averaged 23 percent.
- Utah consistently had the lowest rate, while Kentucky had the highest.
By 2022, the national smoking rate had fallen to nine percent, with Utah maintaining the lowest rate and Maine reporting the highest.
States with High and Low Smoking Rates (2022)
Highest Rates:
- Iowa: 16 percent
- West Virginia: 16 percent
- Oklahoma: 15 percent
- South Dakota: 14 percent
Lowest Rates:
- Utah: 4.4 percent
- California: 5.6 percent
- Colorado: 6 percent
- Connecticut: 6.5 percent
- Arizona: 6.7 percent
Projected Smoking Rates for 2035
Based on current trends, researchers project that Hawaii will have the lowest smoking rate in 2035, estimated at 1.4 percent. Colorado, Utah, California, and New Jersey are also projected to have rates below 5 percent.
Conversely, Iowa is anticipated to have the highest rate at 16 percent, followed by Oklahoma, Wyoming, West Virginia, and Maine.
Correlation with Lung Cancer Incidence
These projections correspond with existing patterns of lung cancer incidence. Midwestern and New England states generally experience the highest rates.
Lung Cancer Statistics
- The national average is 54 cases per 100,000 people.
- Maine, with the highest smoking rate in 2022, had the fourth-highest lung cancer rate in 2021.
- Kentucky, West Virginia, and Mississippi had the highest lung cancer rates.
- Iowa’s lung cancer rate is 61 cases per 100,000 residents.
- Utah, with the fewest smokers, had a lung cancer rate of 24.4 cases per 100,000 people.
Concerns About Vaping Trends
Researchers also emphasized the potential impact of increasing e-cigarette use, particularly among younger demographics. The rise in vaping could impede progress in reducing overall tobacco-related health risks.