Importance Score: 68 / 100 🔴
BANGKOK – Despite declaring a ceasefire following a devastating earthquake in March, the Myanmar junta has sustained a lethal military campaign involving airstrikes and artillery shelling, according to the United Nations and data from a crisis monitoring group. This escalation raises concerns about the junta’s commitment to de-escalation and humanitarian aid efforts during a national crisis.
Ceasefire Announcement and Earthquake Aftermath
The earthquake on March 28, a major disaster for the nation in recent decades, prompted a multinational relief mission to aid hundreds of thousands already affected by conflict. International bodies repeatedly pleaded for a cessation of hostilities.
Following similar actions by opposition forces, Myanmar’s military declared a 20-day truce on April 2 to facilitate humanitarian assistance. This temporary pause was then extended until April 30 after discussions facilitated by the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Escalating Junta Aerial Attacks
However, figures from the United Nations reveal that fighting persisted, and a Reuters analysis of data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) indicates an increase in the rate of junta air assaults since the ceasefire announcement, compared to the preceding six months.
A spokesperson for the junta did not reply to requests for comment from Reuters.
Attacks Detail
Between March 28 and April 24, the military initiated at least 207 offensives, including 140 airstrikes and 24 artillery bombardments, as reported by the UN Human Rights Office, based on received on-the-ground reports.
Since the purported ceasefire, there have been over 172 attacks, with 73 occurring in regions severely impacted by the earthquake.
“It’s business as usual,” noted James Rodehaver, Myanmar head for the United Nations Office on Human Rights.
“The ceasefire…should have involved stopping all military activity and repurposing your military to support the humanitarian response and that has not happened.”
Myanmar in Crisis
Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military coup in February 2021, which ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
The junta’s suppression of opposition fueled a growing civil conflict, even in previously stable areas where protestors resorted to armed resistance.
Civilian Targets
Mid-April witnessed junta aircraft targeting South Kan Ma Yaik village in Karen state during new year festivities. Bombs were dropped, resulting in the death of a pregnant woman and her unborn child, according to a witness account provided to Reuters.
“The first bomb exploded near her house. Then she braced her children for a second bomb and shrapnel hit her body,” explained the witness, who wished to remain anonymous due to safety concerns.
“All the children were bleeding all over.”
Independent verification of the witness’s account was not possible. However, the ACLED data confirms an attack on the village by the junta on April 16 that resulted in one fatality.
Statistics Before and After Ceasefire
- Before Ceasefire: In the six months leading up to April 2, the junta conducted an average of 7.6 daily attacks using aircraft or drones, resulting in over five daily deaths, including civilians, as per ACLED data.
- After Ceasefire: Between April 2 and April 18, the military executed approximately 9.7 aircraft or drone attacks per day, causing more than six daily deaths, according to ACLED data.
In total, junta air raids caused 105 fatalities during this period.
The data indicated that opposition factions conducted only three aerial operations between April 2-18, relying on drones due to the absence of a conventional air force.
Conversely, the Myanmar junta utilizes Chinese and Russian-made fighter and ground attack aircraft, Russian attack helicopters, and heavy unmanned aerial vehicles, as detailed in a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Strategic Objectives of Military Operations
The junta’s airstrikes after the earthquake were directed in the Sagaing region and northern Shan state—areas where the junta is actively trying to reclaim strategic positions—as well as in Kachin and Rakhine states, stated ACLED Senior Analyst Su Mon.
“The military is still conducting aerial strikes that target civilian populations,” she said.
Junta’s Stance
In its ceasefire declarations on April 2 and April 22, the junta affirmed it would retaliate against rebel activities, including recruitment and territorial expansion.
In some cases, information suggested that armed groups attacked the military before the launch of an airstrike, according to U.N.’s Rodehaver.
United Nations Concerns
Referring to the junta, he stated, “Whenever you get attacked by… small arms fire, your response is to launch airstrikes on an area and you end up killing a dozen people who were not involved in the fighting at all. Is that a ceasefire?”