Concerns over international tourism to the United States are mounting as detentions at US borders, the imposition of steep tariffs, and contentious rhetoric from the Trump administration deter global travelers. These policies are leading many potential visitors to reconsider or cancel their trips, citing feelings of being unwelcome and unsafe. The unease extends to supporting the U.S. economy, with some foreign officials labeling current policies as instigating trade conflicts and destabilizing international alliances. A potential expansion of the travel ban could further restrict entry for citizens from numerous nations, impacting international travel and the perception of the U.S. as a welcoming destination.
Impact of Trump Administration Policies on Tourism
“Many Americans seek respite from the strained and charged environment domestically. Why would individuals choose to visit, particularly now with the unpredictable detentions at immigration points?” questioned Mallory Henderson, a 53-year-old marketing consultant from London. Ms. Henderson, who typically visits the U.S. twice annually, canceled her Easter trip to Boston to see family, reflecting growing anxieties among international travelers.
“The current climate feels hostile and alarming. Frankly, there’s an abundance of alternative, inviting destinations where I can reunite with my family,” she stated, highlighting the shift in sentiment towards travel to the USA.
Pre-Existing Challenges to US Travel Industry
Even prior to the change in administration, the U.S. travel industry faced hurdles in recovering from the pandemic. A strong dollar, making visits more costly for foreign tourists, and extended visa processing times were already significant impediments. The U.S. Travel Association projected that inbound international visitor numbers would not reach pre-pandemic levels until later in the year, and a full recovery in foreign visitor spending was not anticipated until 2026.
Heightened Concerns and Revised Forecasts
Travel experts now suggest these recovery forecasts may be overly optimistic. Tourism Economics, a research firm, initially projected a 9 percent growth in travel to the United States for the current year. However, following recent policy shifts, they revised their outlook in February, anticipating a 5.1 percent decrease in inbound travel and a 0.8 percent decline in hotel demand for 2025. This downturn equates to an estimated $18 billion reduction in spending, largely attributed to a tourism boycott by Canadian travelers. After tariffs were announced, the number of Canadians crossing the border by car decreased by 24 percent in February compared to the same period in 2024.
Airline Industry Response and Economic Impact
Airlines are reacting to the uncertainty in international travel. Several carriers, including Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, have lowered their financial projections for the initial months of the year, citing reduced travel spending. Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, noted the airline has decreased flight frequencies to Canada due to a “significant drop in Canadian traffic” entering the U.S.
Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, explained, “The anticipated negative shift in sentiment is fueled by a combination of Trump administration factors, notably geopolitical friction concerning trade and national security policies, along with confrontational rhetoric and adversarial stances.”
He further commented, “Highly visible border security and immigration policies, coupled with enforcement measures, are also expected to discourage international visits,” impacting the broader travel industry.
International Travel Advisories and Border Uncertainty
The ambiguity at US borders has prompted several nations, including Britain, Germany, and Canada, to update their travel advisories for the United States. These advisories emphasize that visa waivers do not guarantee entry and that foreign visitors suspected of violating entry regulations may face detention or arrest at the border. These warnings follow a series of detentions at U.S. ports of entry involving international tourists and green card holders. Recently, French officials reported that a French scientist was denied entry due to personal opinions about the Trump administration’s policies found on his phone during a search upon arrival. U.S. authorities refuted this claim, asserting the denial was unrelated to “political beliefs.”
Rethinking Travel Plans to the United States
While European travel operators have not yet reported cancellations on the scale observed in Canada, where a significant boycott of travel to the United States is underway, a growing number of travelers are reconsidering their spring and summer plans. Eric Dresin, secretary general of the European Travel Agents’ and Tour Operators’ Associations, anticipates “turbulent times,” particularly if more countries are affected by evolving U.S. policies.
Arrivals to the United States from Western Europe experienced a one percent decrease in February, contrasting with a 14 percent increase during the same period the previous year, according to preliminary data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office.
Christoph Bartel, a 28-year-old German citizen residing in Norway, had intended to visit Arizona national parks this summer. However, he canceled his plans in response to the Trump administration’s dismissal of national park employees and deregulation of environmental protections, reflecting a growing trend of travelers reconsidering US vacations.
Economic Strain on US Travel Businesses
Mr. Bartel articulated, “It feels inappropriate to bolster the American economy when the president is engaged in such destructive actions. It is disappointing to abandon a special trip we planned for months, but we will instead explore Canada or Mexico,” illustrating how political factors are influencing international travel decisions.
Following Canada and Mexico, Britain constitutes the largest group of visitors to the United States, with nearly four million annually. Travel agencies are observing a division among British clients: frequent U.S. visitors remain undeterred by the current political climate, while others actively seek alternative destinations in response to policy changes affecting travel to the USA.
The considerable expense of visiting the United States post-pandemic also appears to be impacting international tourism.
Alan Wilson, managing director of Bon Voyage Travel & Tours, a British company specializing in trips to the U.S. and Canada, noted, “America was traditionally perceived as offering exceptional value.” Besides the strong dollar, hotel prices have increased, and the expectation of substantial tips is problematic for many visitors.
“The British market particularly dislikes the 20 percent tipping expectation and the constant implicit demand for gratuities in America. They would prefer to pay a comprehensive price upfront,” Mr. Wilson added, pinpointing a cultural aspect affecting travel decisions.
Mr. Wilson indicated his company has seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. bookings this year compared to last year. However, he anticipates this figure will remain relatively stable through the summer, as most customers are already booked on multi-destination U.S. itineraries confirmed a year in advance.
Challenges for Small Travel Businesses
The economic strain is particularly acute for small travel businesses in locations like New York, Florida, and California, which had anticipated growth in 2025. Luke Miller, owner of Real New York Tours, a family-operated business, reported significant damage to his business due to cancellations, primarily from Canadian visitors, following tariff announcements.
“I have just experienced 20 busloads of senior travelers cancel their upcoming tours. This translates to thousands of dollars in losses for my small business,” Mr. Miller stated. He added that cancellations extend into the winter holiday season, and European bookings, his second-largest market after Canada, are nonexistent for the summer. He described the situation as “heart-wrenching,” emphasizing the precarious position of small tourism operators.
Marketing Efforts to Reassure Tourists
Major destinations like New York and California are intensifying marketing initiatives to reassure international tourists of their welcome. Visit California, the state’s tourism agency, recently adjusted its overall projections for 2025 visitor spending to $160 billion, down from $166 billion, reflecting the slowdown in international traveler growth and the impact of January wildfires.
Caroline Beteta, president of Visit California, stated, “The positive aspect is that due to California’s strong global brand, international visitors maintain a robust affinity for the Golden State.”
New York has adopted a similar approach. Julie Coker, president of New York City Tourism+ Conventions, addressing concerns about the expense of visiting the city, highlighted the availability of budget-friendly options, which the marketing organization will promote.
“This presents an excellent opportunity to showcase the vibrant outer boroughs and areas of New York City beyond Manhattan, which offer equally impressive and award-winning culinary, arts, and cultural experiences,” she noted. Ms. Coker expressed confidence that New York would overcome current challenges and achieve its goal of recovering international spending by 2026, despite present difficulties within the travel and tourism sector.
However, Mr. Miller of Real New York Tours remains unconvinced. He warned that if bookings do not improve this summer, staff layoffs may become necessary.
“The reality is that we are being disproportionately affected and may not survive this downturn,” he concluded, underscoring the severe impact of current trends on smaller players in the US tourism market.