Importance Score: 72 / 100 🔴
WASHINGTON — House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to steer clear of the tumultuous path walked by his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, two years prior: a protracted, humiliating floor contest for the speaker’s post.
A compact cadre of far-right dissidents threatens to obstruct Johnson’s bid to secure the speakership on Friday. Typically, challenging an incumbent speaker would prove arduous. However, Republicans hold such a razor-thin majority in the new 119th Congress that merely two GOP defectors could impede Johnson, R-La., from securing another term as the top House leader.
Trump’s Endorsement: A Mixed Blessing
Three days ago, Johnson received substantial support when President-elect Donald Trump publicly bestowed his “Complete & Total Endorsement” upon the Louisiana Republican, asserting that Johnson’s election would facilitate the GOP-led Congress in executing his 2025 legislative goals. The speaker noted that he spent New Year’s Day with Trump at his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago, following the Cybertruck explosion near the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas.
GOP Dissenters Emerge
Representative Thomas Massie. R-Ky., publicly announced his opposition to Johnson, citing disagreements over government spending deals, Ukraine assistance, and the revival of a potent surveillance initiative known as FISA Section 702.
Citizen of the House Rep. Victoria Spartz. Her intent remains uncertain, as she has nor yet pledged her support for Johnson, awaiting certain assurances.
A Closer Look at GOP Opposition
“I respect and back President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson might fare as well as his endorsement of former Speaker Paul Ryan,” Massie remarked on X prior to the new year. “We’ve observed Johnson teaming up with Democrats to fund Ukraine, authorize domestic spying, and inflate the budget.”
Johnson’s Confidence Amidst Challenges
Despite the internal strife, Johnson exudes confidence in retaining the gavel during the scheduled public vote at noon on Friday, the inaugural vote of the new Congress. Each House member present must orally cast their vote for speaker.
House Democrats are anticipated to back Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York. Nearly all Republicans are predicted to vote for Johnson, who secured his party’s nomination for speaker shortly after the November 5 election.
Urging Swift Action
Johnson, during a Thursday appearance on Fox News, highlighted Trump’s endorsement and cautioned that power struggles over the speakership could postpone Congress’ confirmation of Trump’s electoral victory on January 6. He also implied that the House could ill-afford delays in organizing itself in the new Congress due to national security risks like the deadly New Year’s Day assault in New Orleans.
The Stakes of the Speaker Vote
The initial House vote of the new Congress is the election of the speaker, and no other legislative activity can proceed until the lower chamber selects its leader. This means House committees cannot be formed, bills cannot be introduced, and other votes cannot occur.
The speaker’s election is pivotal for numerous reasons, including:
- The expedient organization of the new Congress
- Immediate attention to pressing national security concerns
- The commencement of vital legislative processes
“We must accomplish this task. The discussions happening today underscore the serious times we inhabit. We cannot tolerate any political intrigue. Congress must commence tomorrow, and we must promptly commence our work,” Johnson stated on Fox News.
“We must validate the election of President Donald Trump on January 6, and we have numerous critical matters at hand, so there is no time to waste. We must remain united.”
A Familiar Battle: The Numbers Game
Johnson confronts a comparable arithmetic challenge that McCarthy encountered two years ago when a coalition of conservative rebels, spearheaded by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., united with Democrats to prevent McCarthy from securing the speakership. It took 15 rounds of voting over multiple days, combined with personal phone calls from Trump, to convince Gaetz’s faction to retreat.
Due to his slim majority, McCarthy narrowly won the speakership. However, just 269 days later, Gaetz, along with Democrats, again toppled McCarthy, instigating a fierce struggle to replace him that halted all House business for three weeks, including security legislation and funding.
From Chaos to Consensus
In the end, Johnson, then a popular No. 7 GOP leader in the House with few known adversaries, was unanimously elected speaker after several higher-ranking leaders failed in their bids
On Fox, Johnson recognized that he is navigating a challenging “numbers game.” Republicans secured a 220-215 majority in November. Nonetheless, Gaetz stepped down after the election, stating he would not be sworn in for the new 119th Congress on Friday, shrinking the GOP edge to 219-215.
Seeking Unity within the GOP
Johnson requires at least 218 votes—the barest majority—to succeed in his speakership bid if all House members participate on Friday. He reported spending the holidays engaging with “every one” of his GOP critics, emphasizing his qualifications and the urgency of advancing Trump’s legislative agenda, which includes tax cuts and border security.
He recently shared with Fox News’ Sean Hannity that he held a 45-minute phone conversation with one of his most vocal critics, Spartz. “
“From this point forward, we have unified governance. We control the White House, the Senate, and the House—a completely different scenario than we faced over the past 14 months since I’ve been Speaker,” Johnson declared on Fox. “We’re eager to implement the America First agenda.”