Asked whether there is ground at the moment for Ukraine and Russia to begin considering peace talks, Professor Ghosn told Express.co.uk: “For any two states to reach an agreement, they must prefer the agreement to the current status quo. In other words, they must feel that they will get the benefits they want with less cost than continuing with the violence.
“However, currently, neither side of the conflict feels it can achieve any of the goals it wants from an agreement.
“More importantly, this conflict is no longer just between Russia and Ukraine; United States, United Kingdom, and members of the EU have also become participants. Therefore, while the decision to continue or end the conflict in Russia maybe in the hands of President Putin, unfortunately, President Zelensky does not have the same ability as at minimum, US and the UK, would need to be consulted given how much they have already invested in the conflict.
“Given all of these factors, I do not believe that President Ramaphosa will be successful at this point in time.”
President Ramaphosa announced in mid-May both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky had given him the go-ahead to “commence the preparations” to host an “African leaders’ peace mission”.
The South African politician didn’t share many details about this possible breakthrough, but didn’t hide the African continent would benefit from peace after being badly hit by the rising prices of grain among other consequences following the Russian invasion.
António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, was briefed on the African delegation’s planned meetings, Mr Ramaphosa said, adding he “welcomed the initiative”.
A few days prior, Mr Guterres had said he didn’t believe peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow would be possible at this stage, as “both sides are convinced they can win”.
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Professor Ghosn also believes it’s unlikely the leadership in both Russia and Ukraine think it will be beneficial for them to consider negotiations at the moment.
Asked what should happen for Kyiv and Moscow to accept the idea of ending the conflict, which has killed more than 8,800 civilians so far, she said: “Unfortunately, for any two sides to sit down and start talking they need to believe that they will get something out of the talks.
“Currently, both sides are waging both a physical and psychological warfare for the domestic and international audience and have made it impossible to back down as they will lose legitimacy and will become vulnerable. Therefore, they both need some kind of win.”
The expert added that, given the current conditions both within their borders and internationally, the most likely solutions at the moment are “continuation of the conflict or a stalemate”.
Months before President Ramaphosa’s announcement, President Zelensky dismissed the possibility of negotiating with Putin.
In March, the Ukrainian leader said his country had already put forward a plan – the Ukrainian Peace Formula, which outlined in 10 points Kyiv’s peace conditions – to “get out of this situation, to end the war, according to the law, respecting the UN Charter, international law, people, values”.
Nevertheless, Mr Zelensky has been planning a peace summit for several months, he revealed upon arriving at a gathering of more than 40 European leaders in Moldova on June 1.
He said: “We are organising a summit – we want to involve as many countries as possible, that’s why we did not set the date yet.” The meeting would not include Russia.
Also in March, Putin had called for “peace talks” and “responsible dialogue” over Ukraine as he released a joint statement with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
However, the message placed the blame for the conflict on NATO expansion, criticised sanctions and made no offer to withdraw invading forces.