Budget 2023 live: energy bill support extended as Jeremy Hunt prepares to set out economic plans

One of the big tests for a budget is whether it can have a material impact on the opinion polls. Most of them don’t – and when they do, the effect is as likely to be negative as postive.

Two polls are out this morning showing what the baseline position is. YouGov has Labour 22 points ahead of the Conservatives.

And Savanta has Labour 15 points ahead.

Savanta is something of an outlier in the polling industry, in that most firms have been giving Labour much bigger leads. Politico publishes a poll of polls, aggregating what all polls are saying, and this suggests Labour’s lead has been relatively constant since the early days of Rishi Sunak’s premiership.

Steven Swinford from the Times says he is hearing that parents might have to wait a while for the extension of free childcare being announced by the chancellor today.

These are from Ed Conway, economics editor at Sky News.

According to the Telegraph, Jeremy Hunt faces a Tory backlash over his decision to press ahead with the rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25% in the budget. This will take effect from April this year. The increase was first announced by Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor, in his spring budget two years ago.

In theory Hunt could have abandoned the rise, but for the last two years (apart from when Kwasi Kwarteng scrapped the increase during his short-lived time as chancellor) Treasury spending plans have been based on the assumption of extra revenue coming from 25%, and so junking it would have been hard.

In their Telegraph story Ben Riley-Smith and Daniel Martin report:

Mr Hunt will also try to take the sting out of the rise [to 25%] by unveiling a multi-billion pound scheme allowing businesses to reduce their tax bills by investing in the UK.

But there is already a growing backlash, as Conservative MPs warned that the tax increase would have a “chilling effect on the whole economy” if not abandoned …

Simon Clarke, the Tory MP and former Truss cabinet minister who helped set up the pro-tax cuts Conservative Growth Group, issued a warning shot on Tuesday night.

Mr Clarke told The Telegraph: “There are some very welcome policies in this Budget, but it is also the case that there is real concern about the corporation tax rise in particular.

“This is a tax on jobs and growth. It is very hard to see how it doesn’t have a chilling effect on the whole economy in a way which will cost every family in the country.”

Riley-Smith and Martin also says Boris Johnson is among the Tories who have called for the 25% increase to be abandoned “even though it was initially announced when he was prime minister”.

In its budget polling (see 9.55am), YouGov found that voters are more likely to think the increase will be good for the economy than bad for the economy.

Jeremy Hunt has now left Downing Street for the House of Commons. On his way, he posed for the traditional photographs with his budget red box, and his ministerial team.

Although policy specialists have welcomed the news that the budget will include a £4bn expansion of free childcare for one- and two-year-olds in England (see 9.08am), some experts are sceptical.

The Labour MP Stella Creasy says £4bn will not be enough to fund the scheme.

And the Sutton Trust, the social mobility charity, has sent out a briefing note pointing out that poorer families have less access to the current 30 hours of free childcare available for three- and four-year-olds (which is conditional on both parents working at least 16 hours a week) than wealthier ones. It wants to know if the same problem will apply to the new provision for one- and two-year-olds.

The Sutton Trust also says Hunt will have to assure the industry that that this pledge is properly funded. It says:

If not, the expansion will likely exacerbate provider financial problems and risk the sustainability of many. Many providers currently cross-subsidise underfunded “free” hours with hours charged at higher prices to parents elsewhere. With an expansion of free hours to one- and two year-olds, there will be fewer places where providers can make up these costs.

Some budgets measures show Labour ‘setting the agenda’, says Pat McFadden

Only one voter in 10 is confident that the budget will provide them with enough help with the cost of living, according to new polling from YouGov.

But almost four out of five people said extending the energy support guarantee, which is happening, would be helpful.

Earlier I said in a post that the Treasury did not release the normal pre-budget photograph last night of the chancellor working on his speech with aides. I’ve taken it down, because it turned out they did; it was just hard to find them, because they weren’t in the usual place. Here’s one. The caption does not say what Jeremy Hunt and his aides were looking at on the phone, but perhaps it was the news that the Guardian was splashing their big announcement.

Overnight the Treasury released an extract from Jeremy Hunt’s budget speech. He will say:

In the autumn we took difficult decisions to deliver stability and sound money.

Today, we deliver the next part of our plan: a budget for growth.

Not just growth from emerging out of a downturn.

But long term, sustainable, healthy growth that pays for our NHS and schools, finds good jobs for young people, provides a safety net for older people.

…all whilst making our country one of the most prosperous in the world.

Today I deliver that by…

… removing the obstacles that stop businesses investing;

… tackling the labour shortages that stop them recruiting;

… breaking down the barriers that stop people working;

…and harnessing British ingenuity to make us a science and tech superpower.

Hundreds of thousands of workers are on strike today in what threatens to be the biggest strike since the current wave of industrial action started last year, PA Media reports. PA says:

Members of several trade unions will take action, mounting hundreds of picket lines across the country amid continuing anger over issues including pay, jobs, pensions and conditions.

Those striking include teachers, university lecturers, civil servants, junior doctors, London Underground drivers and BBC journalists.

Despite talks being held between unions and the Westminster government, the public sector strikes remain deadlocked.

Some of the strikes, such as those by teachers, will only be held in England as progress has been made in Wales and Scotland.

Treasury extends energy price guarantee for three months, but opposition parties say bills should be cut instead

Jeremy Hunt prepares to unveil budget as experts welcome plan for £4bn expansion of free childcare