(Bloomberg) — Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is favored to secure an election victory Sunday, though the vocal Vladimir Putin critic may struggle to form a new government as a far-right party taps discontent.
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Kallas, who has become popular at home and abroad for her unwavering support for Ukraine, has held a steady — if at times narrowing — lead over the nationalist EKRE party led by former Finance Minister Martin Helme. But EKRE has won support from older and rural voters as it lashes out at Kallas on migration and the European Union’s green turn.
Polling stations are set to close at 8 p.m. local time, with official results from in-person and online voting announced later in the evening.
Kallas has pledged to maintain Estonia’s trans-Atlantic course as a committed member of the EU and NATO. If EKRE manages to forge a coalition, a shift in the country of 1.3 million could jeopardize unity among EU allies in support of weapons deliveries to Kyiv and sanctions against Russia.
Under Kallas’s premiership, Estonia — a Baltic nation that borders Russia to the east — has been one of the most strident critics of Moscow, supplying Kyiv with more weapons than any other country on a per-capita basis. Kallas has said that voters faces a choice between a “friendly, progressive, pro-Western” country and an “isolated, bitter” one.
EKRE has in turn accused Kallas of “warmongering” and supporting Ukraine at the expense of Estonian voters. Campaigning on the slogan “Let’s Save Estonia,” the party has demanded a halt to weapons deliveries and an influx of Ukrainian war refugees. It’s also assailed the prime minister for Estonia’s 19.4% inflation last year, among the highest in the EU.
“They say we should sit back and be really quiet,” Kallas said in an interview last month, going on the attack against EKRE. “I think neutrality can’t be our position. It is indifference toward the violence.”
Kallas’s Reform Party led with 29%, ahead of EKRE at 21%, according to a Norstat survey published Friday. The moderate Centre party under former Prime Minister Juri Ratas was third with 18%. Other polls have shown EKRE slipping behind Centre.
In the final weeks of the campaign, EKRE has fended off accusations that it’s benefited from Russian-linked election interference in the past. The nation’s top military commander lashed out at Helme, who accused him of weakening the country’s defenses with its weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
Kallas’s personal popularity puts her far ahead of other contenders. But her staying power will depend on whether she can form a majority coalition in a fragmented political landscape. Rejecting any cooperation with EKRE, she currently leads a coalition with Estonia’s Social Democrats and the conservative Fatherland party.
The challenge is illustrated by Kallas’s election victory in 2019. Despite the win, Ratas managed to stay in power with EKRE’s backing. That coalition was soon mired in scandal, helped by EKRE party members’ polarizing statements. Helme, 46, once triggered a storm of criticism when he said Black people in Estonia should be “shown the door.”
That coalition’s collapse in 2021 paved the way for Kallas’s premiership.
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