What the Eagles need to do to win …
Cut off Travis Kelce. Easy, right? The only Chiefs player with more than 1,000 yards receiving in the regular season, and the target for one-third of all passes his team has thrown in the postseason, he is the person that an injured Mahomes will want to look for when the pressure is on. NB
The key to winning Super Bowls and beating elite quarterbacks is getting pressure with four, allowing a defense to cheat an extra defender into coverage. Against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ go-go offense, it’s a must. Good news for Philly: They lead the league in sack rate and pressure rate with a four-man rush this season. OC
Focus on the ground game. While the Chiefs’ defense has improved, it’s weaker against the rush than it is the pass. This is where having a dual-threat quarterback like Hurts helps them, as he won’t necessarily have to try to beat Mahomes in a shoot-out to lead his team to victory. HF
Swarm the backfield. Philadelphia’s tricked-out pass rush has brought the quarterback down behind the line of scrimmage in nearly one of eight plays this year, the highest sack rate for any team in more than three decades. Mahomes gets rid of the ball fast and doesn’t get hauled down often, but the Eagles will start four players on Sunday who racked up double-digit sack totals on the season: something not even the 1985 Bears could boast. If they bring that menace on Sunday like they have all year, it could get late early for Kansas City. BAG
Simple as it sounds, Philadelphia must control the clock and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. Brock Purdy’s injury in the NFC championship game cleared the way for the Eagles, but so did Philly’s offensive line and running backs. The Eagles don’t want to have to rely on Jalen Hurts airing it out. MJ
What the Chiefs need to do to win …
Keep the Eagles’ formidable pass rush off Mahomes long enough for him to win the game. None of the league’s last nine Most Valuable Player winners have combined that award with a Lombardi trophy, and there is a hint there of how dangerous it can be to ask too much of one individual. But it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Kansas City win this game without the newly minted MVP in the starring role. NB
Stylistically and schematically, the Chiefs don’t have the pieces to slow down the Eagles’ overwhelming offense. What they can do is cause all kinds of chaos up front and hope that they’re able to fool Jalen Hurts into making a couple of costly mistakes. To win, the Chiefs will need to steal a possession. OC
The improved offensive line can’t let Mahomes suffer any further injury. There’s no question Mahomes is the biggest difference-maker here, but it’s also uncertain how healthy his ankle is, despite how well he played against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC title game. Any substantial injury to Mahomes will tilt the game in favor of Philadelphia. HF
It hasn’t reared itself often during the Eagles’ charmed season, but we’ve seen what the soft underbelly of Jonathan Gannon’s defense can look like at its worst. If ever a guy was built to exploit that weakness, it’s Kansas City’s supremely gifted quarterback. Mahomes and Kelce must probe the short and intermediate areas over the middle early and often, putting the question linebackers TJ Edwards and Kyzir White along with safeties Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Reed Blankenship and Marcus Epps. BAG
The Chiefs’ defensive front must penetrate that elite Eagles line and force Hurts to throw the ball. While Hurts is a proven quarterback, the lingering impact of his shoulder injury was evident against the 49ers. Oh, also that Mahomes dude needs to work his usual magic while a wideout such as Kadarius Toney wreaks havoc on Philly’s secondary. MJ
Key player for the Eagles …
Haason Reddick, edge rusher. The Chiefs will not repeat the mistake that San Francisco made, assigning tight ends and receivers to block Philadelphia’s best edge rusher. But he had 16 sacks in the regular season, too, his third straight year hitting double figures. You don’t need to be naïve for him to hurt you. NB
Jason Kelce, center. The offensive line fuels the Eagles’ run game, and has consistently pitched shutouts in pass protection (Lane Johnson hasn’t conceded a pressure in six weeks). If the run game is rolling early, the Chiefs will be in trouble – and the Eagles’ ground attack is built around Kelce’s unique skillset, which allows them to run things other teams can only imagine. OC
Miles Sanders, running back. While Kenneth Gainwell has been the most productive running back for Philadelphia in the postseason, Sanders remains their premier rushing threat (at least among non-quarterbacks). He ended the regular season with the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the league, plus the fifth-most rushing yards. Expect some game-changing carries from him. HF
Jalen Hurts, quarterback. The Eagles have won 19 of their past 21 games when Hurts is under center, but the Super Bowl is a different animal – especially for a young signal-caller. Of the seven quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl before their 25th birthday, only two have finished with a passer rating above 66: Tom Brady at the end of the 2001 season (86.2) and Mahomes at the end of 2019 (78.1). The 24-year-old Hurts’ even-keeled temperament seems tailor-made to meet the moment, but we won’t know for sure until the rubber hits the road. BAG
Nick Sirianni. OK, he’s not a player, but this will be the biggest test yet for Philadelphia’s 41-year-old head coach. So far, he has shown poise, discipline and a healthy amount of guts. (The Eagles have gone for it on fourth down a whopping 35 times this season.) But the Super Bowl is a unique beast and many more experienced coaches have crumbled under the spotlight. MJ
Key player for the Chiefs …
Chris Jones, defensive tackle. Mahomes, of course, but to be a little less obvious I think Jones could have a huge role on the other side of the ball. The Eagles’ offensive line are bullies, but a player who piled up 15.5 sacks and 46 quarterback pressures, best in the league at his position, might just have the moxie to give them a bloody nose. NB
Patrick Mahomes, quarterback. You could point to rookie corner Trent McDuffie, whose entry into the lineup has transformed the Chiefs’ defense. But KC’s hopes for a championship ride on Mahomes’ right shoulder. Across the board, the Eagles have a better roster. It will take an all-time performance to push the Chiefs over the top. And who would be willing to bet against Mahomes to deliver? OC
JuJu Smith-Schuster, wide receiver. With Mecole Hardman injured, Smith-Schuster – who had 78 catches for 933 yards in the regular season – is going to be even more important for the Chiefs, particularly if the Eagles’ defense successfully covers Mahomes’s top target, Kelce. HF
Andrew Wylie, right tackle. The undrafted free agent from Eastern Michigan, whose nine sacks allowed in the regular season were joint-third most in the NFL, will need to step up his game after drawing the unenviable assignment of containing Haason Reddick, the edge rusher extraordinaire who is earning straight-faced comparisons to Reggie White. BAG
Trent McDuffie, cornerback (and the Chiefs’ other rookie DBs). The Chiefs hit the jackpot with this group of rookies and particularly with McDuffie, who can play on the outside and in the slot. The Eagles will sling it to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith when there’s a juicy one-on-matchup. How McDuffie and Co hold up in those moments will go a long way in determining the outcome. MJ
One bold prediction …
Hurts sets a new record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in a Super Bowl. The target is lower than you might think: just 64 yards by Steve McNair in a losing effort for Tennessee against St Louis at the end of the 1999 season. NB
Rihanna delays the second half. The league has form for delaying the second half of the Super Bowl. I’m not sure if you’ve seen the prop bets, but Vegas seems to know stuff. Rihanna to Confirm That Her Lyrics Were Censored by the NFL is a -105 favorite to occur during the half-time performance. What if that censorship causes the league to panic and delay? Or, I don’t know, someone slips on RiRi’s faux rain during Umbrella. OC
The game will turn on a safety. In a contest between the two best teams in the league, you expect something close to a perfectly executed game. Perfection, however, rarely happens in professional sports. HF
The Chiefs will try an onside kick on their first kickoff. The fearless Andy Reid once opened a season with an onside kick (and watched the same gambit backfire spectacularly a few years later) during his time with the Eagles, so there’s a track record here that Philadelphia should be aware of. Don’t be surprised if he tries to catch his keyed-up opponents off guard before they have gotten their legs under them, whether it’s to start the game or after Kansas City’s first score. (Also, Rihanna busts out Pon de Replay for the first time in 12 years.) BAG
Disclaimer: I 100% hope this does not happen. Hurts re-injures his shoulder in the first quarter. Gardner Minshew enters the game, revs up the aerial attack and is crowned Super Bowl MVP. A variety of hair product companies fight for his marketing services, all contingent on Minshew growing back his mullet. MJ
The final score will be …
Chiefs 23-20 Eagles. On paper, Philly are the better team. That offensive line is just so strong, and they will have success establishing the run to control the clock early on. But close games are decided by the moments when everything goes off script, and who manages those better than Mahomes? It’s not just about him, either. Are we yet ready to put Sirianni above Reid, who has given Kansas City one of the best decades of any team in NFL history? NB
Eagles 34-28 Chiefs. Philadelphia top Kansas City in almost every department. They have the best offensive line in the NFL by some distance. They have the best, most effective defensive front. Front to back, they have the best defense in the league. Mahomes is still battling a high ankle sprain. The Chiefs receiving corps is depleted. And they’re playing a historic number of rookies on defense. All signs point to the Eagles running over an undermanned KC side. But the Chiefs have the best quarterback in the game, playing at the apex of his powers. The Eagles should win, but Mahomes, Kelce and Jones will keep it close. OC
Eagles 29-24 Chiefs. The Chiefs are going to score touchdowns in this game, that’s the only prediction here that this writer is 100% confident about. The Eagles, however, have been the most complete team all regular season and have plowed their way through the competition in the postseason. If this game hinges on a handful of mistakes, it feels like the Eagles are the team best qualified to turn those into points. That may well be the difference in a Super Bowl that should go down to the wire. HF
Eagles 33-16 Chiefs. Philadelphia have the NFL’s best offensive line and the best defensive line. They have been the deepest and most complete team across the board all season and they’re the healthier side entering Sunday’s game. And yet somehow the experts are still underestimating them: the Chiefs were installed as two-and-a-half-point favorites before the public spoke with their wallets, swinging the line in the Eagles’ direction within 15 minutes. As long as the ankle holds up, Mahomes’ routine incandescence paired with one of the sport’s best ever game-planners in Reid will keep the outcome in doubt until the championship rounds, where the body blows will mount and the Eagles’ class will tell. BAG
Eagles 31-22 Chiefs. The Eagles are better and deeper across almost every unit. Offensive line? Check. Receiving corps? Running game? Secondary? Check. Check. Check. The Chiefs, of course, boast the best quarterback in the game, not to mention the best tight end. But with Mahomes three weeks removed from a high ankle sprain, his receivers banged up and an inexperienced corner group, the Eagles have more viable lanes where they can prevail. MJ