All season long, the Eagles looked like the best team in the NFC, and they showed as much in two wins over the Giants to help clinch the top seed in the conference.
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This third matchup comes with some intrigue, though, as quarterback Jalen Hurts battles a shoulder injury that threatens to derail Philly’s Super Bowl dreams as early as the divisional round. Can New York channel its momentum from last week’s win into a massive upset over its division rival?
Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX.
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Eagles vs. Giants odds (via BetMGM)
- Eagles -7.5 (-110), moneyline -350
- Giants +7.5 (-110), moneyline +275
- O/U 48 (-110)
Eagles vs. Giants prediction and analysis
As has been the case with nearly every matchup this postseason, we already saw a preview of how Saturday’s contest might look when these teams faced off in Week 14. And it wasn’t pretty for the Giants.
The Eagles ran roughshod all over New York’s hapless defense in that contest, finishing with a ridiculous 253 rushing yards en route to a 48-22 win. It was the 10th-most rushing yards allowed by any team this season, and the loss served as the Giants’ worst by scoring margin (-26) and by single-game DVOA (-42.8%).
That shouldn’t come as a surprise: New York’s run defense allowed the second-most yards per carry in the regular season (5.2) and ranked dead last in rush defense DVOA. That Week 14 showing was the second time this group had allowed 200-plus rushing yards and was one of 13 games allowing at least 100 yards across the 17-week regular season.
So what, exactly, do we expect to change this week? Philly’s best weapon this year was its multifaceted run game – which we should see a heavy dose of with Hurts’ shoulder still on the mend – and the Giants have proven powerless against it. And if they sell out to stop the run? Hurts is more than capable of making them pay through the air, as evidenced by his 22 touchdowns to just six interceptions.
There’s been a lot of excitement about Daniel Jones after last week’s stellar playoff debut (301 yards, 2 TDs), and there’s no denying that his stock is on the rise overall. Still, do you trust him to do it again? He’s thrown for 230 or more yards just three times this season, and two of them came against the beleaguered Vikings, who ranked 31st in passing yards allowed (265.6 YPG).
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Fittingly, the Eagles led the league in that metric (179.8 YPG) and owned the NFL’s best pass defense by DVOA, too. Jones threw for just 169 yards when these teams met in Week 14, when he was sacked four times and struggled to find receivers downfield. Last week wasn’t much different: Jones attempted just five passes further than 10 yards down the field, but it didn’t matter with so much room open underneath.
Jones won’t see those passing lanes on Saturday, especially against a rested Philly defense that has essentially spent three weeks game-planning for its division rival. The Eagles went 6-3 against the spread at home this year with five wins by at least eight points; expect another one this weekend.