The experts aren’t giving TCU a chance, installing Georgia as a nearly two-touchdown favorite.
There is already talk that a second straight national championship is a formality for Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs, that by surviving Ohio State in the Peach Bowl, they passed what will be their stiffest test this year en route to a perfect season.
We should know better by now. The oddsmakers. The writers. The talking heads. We didn’t give the Horned Frogs a single vote in the preseason. We kept waiting for them to slip up. We didn’t think they had any shot against Michigan.
All this team has done is prove everyone foolish. It is not here by accident. It finds ways to win close games, six victories by a single score. It is better than advertised in the trenches. Its defense is tough and opportunistic, creating three turnovers in the win over Michigan. two of them pick-sixes.
Georgia, as talented and balanced as it may be, was fortunate to get by shorthanded Ohio State. It needed everything to break right in the fourth quarter. If Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn’t suffer a head injury late in the third quarter, or safety Lathan Ransom doesn’t slip, leading to a 76-yard Arian Smith touchdown catch midway through the fourth quarter, the Bulldogs’ season may be over.
Georgia’s secondary is clearly an issue, as Ohio State C.J. Stroud showed in throwing for 384 yards and four touchdowns against it. TCU quarterback Max Duggan and game-breaking wideout Quentin Johnston will be tough for the Bulldogs to handle. The Horned Frogs average 41.2 points per game, the third-highest mark in the nation.
Now I do expect Georgia to play better on Jan. 9 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. Saturday was not its best performance. Both Smart and quarterback Stetson Bennett talked about needing to clean things up. The Bulldogs, who have now won 16 straight games and 30 of their last 31, should be the favorite and it would be a surprise for them not to become the first repeat champion since Alabama in 2011-12.
Yet, counting out TCU would be a mistake. The Horned Frogs outplayed a good Michigan team. They belong. They’ve proven it time and again this season.
Before we fully move on to what should be a fascinating title game, I wanted to look back at what was by far the best day the College Football Playoff has had in its nine years.
There were two phenomenal semifinal games, both of them classics that weren’t decided until the final seconds. It was the first time that both semifinals were decided by a single score. One underdog (TCU) pulled the upset and the other (Ohio State) nearly did. The scoreboards were lit up like Christmas trees and the Peach Bowl was determined just as the year flipped from 2022 to 2023.
Far too frequently over the past decade, the favorite has coasted. You can reasonably predict the teams that will reach the playoff. Even the playoff games are lopsided. This year has been different — TCU was unranked in the preseason, as addressed above — and Saturday certainly was. I’ve noticed some making an argument that the two semifinal games shows the system works, that a 12-team playoff isn’t needed. I think it proves the opposite, that the playing field is evening out, and by adding eight teams to the bracket, it will only increase excitement and give us more games like we just witnessed.
Ohio State proved it belonged and Stroud showed he should be the first quarterback taken in the NFL draft. He absolutely torched Georgia’s defense, which features a number of future NFL players. He used his legs to extend plays and threw darts all evening from the pocket. It was impossible not to be blown away by what you saw from the junior signal-caller at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Don’t forget, he did that without Harrison, his top receiver, for the fourth quarter and he was already without two of his top playmakers, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back TreVeyon Henderson. It’s mind-boggling to me that some experts think Kentucky’s Will Levis is a better option than Stroud. This is Zach Wilson over Justin Fields all over again.