The default expectation for the Minnesota Vikings is that, somehow and to varying degrees, the season will end in disappointment.
That fatalism has been nurtured over several decades of playoff pratfalls. The Vikings appeared in four Super Bowls during the 1970s, lost each one and haven’t been back since. In the last 25 years, they have made it to four NFC championship games, two of which ended in humiliating blowouts and two that rank among the most heartbreaking postseason losses ever. It is a franchise congenitally disposed to choking, with a litany of agonizing miscues recognized by their shorthand: Roger Staubach’s Hail Mary; Darrin Nelson’s drop; Gary Anderson’s miss; Brett Favre’s pick; Blair Walsh’s shank.
The Vikings, precedent dictates, will find a novel way to blow it; to believe otherwise is to deny history and possibly cosmic influence.
All of which makes the 2022 Minnesota Vikings so decidedly un-Vikings, a mold-breaking band of misfits who can’t stop finding new – and increasingly bizarre – ways to win. This year’s Vikes stand at 12-3 after their last-second Christmas Eve win over the New York Giants, yet another thriller in a season filled with high-wire acts. Eight of those wins have come via fourth–quarter comebacks, including four that required erasing double-digit deficits in the final period. They have won two of the most madcap regular season games ever: an upset over the Super Bowl-favorite Buffalo Bills in November that was gifted by a Josh Allen fumble in the end zone, and a record-setting 33-point comeback win earlier this month against the Indianapolis Colts. All but one of their wins have come by a single score. The stars appear to have aligned for this star-crossed franchise.
The default expectation, however, remains the same. Minnesota may boast a record befitting a Super Bowl contender, but few actually regard them as one. Other teams strain to find bulletin board material – newspaper clippings and talk radio sound bites to fuel the notion that nobody believes in them – but this year’s Vikings team never has to look far for such slights. Sources of skepticism are plentiful, and they usually take the form of cold data rather than hot takes. The defense ranks second-to-last in the league, while their offense has been outgained by opponents to the tune of 620 yards. Their paltry plus-five point differential says that they are the worst 12-3 team ever.
Oddsmakers have made it clear all season that they aren’t convinced, consistently treating the Vikes like a middling team rather than a potential No 2 seed. Earlier this month, they became the first team in more than 50 years to be at least eight games over .500 and still be an underdog against an opponent with a losing record. The sharps were vindicated after the favored Detroit Lions, at the time 5-7, handed the Vikings their third loss of the season. Minnesota’s other two losses – a Week 2 humbling against the Philadelphia Eagles and a 40-3 embarrassment last month at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys – have only cemented the belief that they are firmly below the league’s upper crust.
If they aren’t legitimate contenders, this year’s Vikings are at least a historic anomaly, one that has confounded fans and football wonks alike.
“There’s never been anything like this,” said Aaron Schatz, the editor-in-chief of the analytics website Football Outsiders. “There’s never been a team that has won 11 one-possession games in a season, let alone gone 11-0 in those games. It’s never happened before.”
Football Outsiders rates all 32 teams in the NFL using a formula known as Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) that compares their performance on every play to the league average, while also taking into account situation and opponents. The Vikings currently rank 25th in DVOA, putting them in the company of dismal teams like the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders.
After 10 games, the Vikings stood as the worst 8-2 team ever, according to DVOA, and as the wins have piled up, so too have the dubious superlatives. Schatz said that they became the worst 11-3 team of all time “by a lot” following their epic comeback over the Colts and now they have the distinction of being the least impressive team to notch a 12-3 mark.
Schatz said the advanced stats suggest the Vikings have been far more lucky than they have been good. According to Pythagorean wins, which approximates how many games a team should win based on points scored and allowed, the Vikings have four more victories than expected.
“By Pythagorean wins, the Vikings are the luckiest team of all time,” Schatz said. “There’s never been a team that was below average at 12-3 before.
When I asked if there was anything beyond the win and loss record that might give hope to Vikings fans like me, Schatz noted that they are among the least penalized teams in the league. And he pointed to the performance of all-universe wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is the favorite to win offensive player of the year.
Anything else?
“No,” he said.
Well, if no one else is going to make a case, allow me to give it a go.
In lieu of empirical data, the case for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings rests on vibes and momentum – immeasurable attributes that are typically dismissed by the analytics community. But when a team doesn’t make sense, when the results consistently defy expectations and when there is no adequate metric to explain its success, the only recourse is to wade into the realm of gut-feelings and superstition.
This year’s Vikings team has run on adrenaline and camaraderie, with first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell cultivating a feel-good culture that has provided a balm to fans’ snakebites. The players have embraced the oft-maligned Kirk Cousins, draping him in chains after wins and turning the maladroit quarterback into a lovable dork. The nature of their results invite otherworldly explanations. If an ill-fated franchise best known for nauseating losses were to suddenly flip the script and make a clean break from its cursed history, wouldn’t it look a bit like this?
No, there is nothing logical about this case, but then, there has been nothing logical about this year’s Vikings. Previous iterations have looked like a much stronger threat to go all the way. In 1998, Minnesota went 15-1 and set a new scoring record thanks to an electrifying rookie campaign from Randy Moss, only to fall a game short of the Super Bowl after Anderson’s infamous miss. The 2017 Vikings boasted a dominant defense and appeared to have the kiss of destiny following the Minneapolis Miracle, but their run ended when they were stomped by Nick Foles and the Eagles.
Both of those Vikings teams were favored in the NFC championship game, which likely won’t be the case should they make it that far this time around. But maybe the Vikes were never meant to be frontrunners. Maybe the truly elite Vikings squads of previous seasons were out of character, while this year’s scrappy bunch is more in keeping with a franchise typified by weirdness and flukes.
Maybe the Vikings were always meant to win it all with the worst Super Bowl team ever.