Russia-Ukraine war live news: blasts heard in Crimea; Putin trying to ‘freeze Ukraine into submission’, US envoy says

The top US general has said Ukraine’s chances of any near-term, outright military victory are not high, cautioning that Russia still has significant combat power inside Ukraine despite suffering battlefield setbacks.

US army general Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told a news conference at the Pentagon on Wednesday:

The probability of a Ukrainian military victory – defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they claim as Crimea – the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily.”

“Politically, there may be a political solution where, politically, the Russians withdraw. That’s possible,” he added, saying Russia “right now is on its back.”

Milley added: “The Ukrainians have achieved success after success after success. And the Russians have failed every single time. They’ve lost strategically, they’ve lost operationally, and I repeat, they lost tactically.”

The strategic reframing of their objectives, of the illegal invasion, have all failed – every single one of them,” he said.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said Ukraine knows that it would be a mistake to allow Russia to refit and rearm its troops.

They have to continue to keep the pressure on the Russians going forward and I think (a) winter fight favours the Ukrainians,” Austin said.

Ukraine’s southern port city of Odesa was struck by a Russian missile on Thursday morning, according to Ukraine’s military ‘south’ command.

Ukrinform also reported explosions were heard in Dnipro, a city on the Dnieper River in central Ukraine.

Power outages have been reported across the city.

The barrage of missiles that struck Ukraine on Tuesday is likely the largest number of strikes that Russia has conducted in a single day since the first week of its invasion, the UK Ministry of Defence has said.

The report, released on Thursday morning, read:

Munitions were launched from air, sea and land-based platforms. Although a large proportion of missiles were successfully intercepted Ukraine is facing a significant decrease in the power available from its national grid. This will impact upon civilian access to communications, heating and water supplies.

Continued strikes at this scale are drawing deeply upon Russia’s reserves of conventional cruise missiles, as degrading Ukrainian’s national infrastructure has become a key element of Russia’s strategic approach to the campaign.”

US president Joe Biden has disputed Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s comment that the missiles that landed in Poland on Tuesday were not of Ukrainian origin.

“That’s not the evidence,” Biden told reporters at the White House upon returning from a trip to Asia on Thursday, according to a Reuters report.

Polish president, Andrzej Duda, met with US central intelligence agency director William Burns in Warsaw on Wednesday evening, the head of Poland’s national security bureau said.

Jacek Siewiera said the conversation “concerned the general security situation” and “the context of recent events came up.”

In the evening, president Andrzej Duda talked with the head of the CIA, William Burns, who is in Warsaw after his visits to Ankara and Kiev. The conversation concerned the general security situation, the context of recent events appeared. Lots of work on the PL-US line today.”

The barrage of more than 90 missiles that rained down on Ukraine was “a deliberate tactic” and attempt by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin to freeze Kyiv into submission, the US ambassador to the UN has said.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the council in remarks published on Thursday:

This tragedy would never have happened but for Russia’s needless invasion of Ukraine and its recent missile assaults against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.”

He seems to have decided that if he can’t seize Ukraine by force, he will try to freeze the country into submission,” she said.

UN undersecretary-general for political affairs Rosemary DiCarlo reiterated that attacks targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure are prohibited under international law, noting that “heavy battles” are continuing in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk.

She told council members:

There is no end in sight to the war … as long as it continues, the risks of potentially catastrophic spillover remain all too real.”

Poland’s UN ambassador Krzysztof Szczerski told the council “those innocent people would not have been killed if there had been no Russian war against Ukraine.” And Britain’s UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward said: “We should be clear that this is a tragedy that indisputably stems from Russia’s illegal and unjustified invasion. And it’s inhumane assault on civilians across Ukraine.”

“It is and remains a war of choice, a pure act of unprovoked aggression and the attempt to grab territory. This war must end not expand, and Russia started it, Russia must put an end to it.”

Explosions are being reported in the occupied town of Dzhankoi in Crimea.

According to Ukrainian media reports, a Russian airfield was hit.

Ukrinform said the explosions were heard late on Wednesday evening, citing local Telegram channels.

Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments as they unfold over the next few hours.

The barrage of more than 90 missiles that rained down on Ukraine was “a deliberate tactic” and attempt by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin to freeze Kyiv into submission, the US ambassador to the UN has said.

Polish president, Andrzej Duda, met with US central intelligence agency director William Burns in Warsaw on Wednesday evening, to discuss the general security situation in the aftermath of an explosion at the Polish border.

For any updates or feedback you wish to share, please feel free to get in touch via email or Twitter.

If you have just joined us, here are all the latest developments:

• A missile that crashed inside south-eastern Poland, killing two, was probably a stray fired by Ukraine’s air defences and not a Russian strike, Poland and Nato have said. Polish president, Andrzej Duda, said there is no evidence to suggest the missile was an intentional attack or was launched by Russia but was probably fired as part of Ukraine’s air defences and “unfortunately fell on Polish territory”.

• Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, confirmed that initial analysis suggested the incident was “likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory” against Russian cruise missile attacks. “Let me be clear: this is not Ukraine’s fault,” he added. “Russia bears the ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.” Meanwhile Nato allies met in Brussels to discuss their reactions to the incident.

• Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said he is convinced that the missile was not Ukrainian. Speaking to reporters, Zelenskiy said he had received reports from the command of Ukraine’s armed forces and air force and “cannot but trust them”.

• US president Joe Biden disputed Zelenskiy’s comment that missiles that landed in Poland were not of Ukrainian origin. “That’s not the evidence,” Biden told reporters at the White House upon returning from a trip to Asia on Thursday.

• Ukraine is requesting “immediate access” to the site of the explosion in eastern Poland, a senior Ukrainian defence official said. Oleksiy Danilov said Ukraine wanted a “joint study” of Tuesday’s incident with its partners. Duda said both Poland and the US would have to agree before Ukraine could take part in the investigation.

• The Russian defence ministry said that on Tuesday, it had not targeted anywhere within 35km (22 miles) of the Ukraine-Poland border. The ministry said statements about “Russian missiles” falling in Przewodów were “a deliberate provocation with the aim of escalating the situation”.

• Duda met US central intelligence agency director William Burns in Warsaw on Wednesday evening, the head of Poland’s national security bureau said. Jacek Siewiera said the conversation “concerned the general security situation” and “the context of recent events came up.”

• The UK’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has blamed Russian president Vladimir Putin’s “cruel and unrelenting” war for destabilising the world economy, while calling for Nato allies to wait for the results of “a full investigation into the circumstances behind missiles falling in Poland yesterday”. The British PM and his Canadian counterpart, Justin Trudeau, spoke with Zelenskiy and said in a readout afterwards that “whatever the outcome of that investigation [into the explosion in Poland], Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is squarely to blame for the ongoing violence”.

• A vital deal allowing Russian and Ukrainian wheat and fertilisers to be exported through the Black Sea is expected to continue, according to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The deal was scheduled to expire on Saturday but Erdoğan said he was confident the deal was going to be renewed for a year, bringing relief to some of the poorest countries in the world.

• A draft declaration from G20 leaders said “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine”, and demanded Russia’s “complete and unconditional withdrawal” from its neighbour’s territory. The reference to war is a rejection of Russia’s claim that it is involved in a “special military operation”. But it also said “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions”, reflecting the divisions among G20 states over Russia.

• Ukrainian investigators have uncovered a claimed “torture room” in Kherson city where dozens of men were allegedly detained, electrocuted, beaten and some of them killed. Police said Russian soldiers took over the juvenile detention centre in around mid-March and turned it into a prison for men who refused to collaborate with them or who were accused of partisan activity.