Russia’s military leadership is ‘increasingly dysfunctional’, with the war in Ukraine being spearheaded by rookie officers as Putin’s forces are beaten back on the battlefield.
Four out of five of Russia’s top generals have been sacked since the start of the war, Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) said today, with Sergei Surovikin now in charge.
‘Their replacements have so far done little to improve Russia’s battlefield performance’, the MoD added, as Surovikin appeared to be preparing for a retreat from the southern stronghold of Kherson.
British spies did not name the four generals who had been sacked, but one of them is almost certain to be Valery Gerasimov – chief of the general staff who was last seen in a tense encounter with Putin during war games in eastern Russia.
The other three are likely to be Aleksandr Dvornikov, Surovikin’s predecessor, Gennady Zhidko, former commander of Russia’s southern armies, and Aleksandr Zhuravlev, who headed the western grouping.
British spies did not name the four generals who had been sacked, but one of them is almost certain to be Valery Gerasimov (pictured) – chief of the general staff who was last seen in a tense encounter with Putin during war games in eastern Russia
The other three are likely to be Aleksandr Dvornikov (above), Surovikin’s predecessor, Gennady Zhidko, former commander of Russia’s southern armies, and Aleksandr Zhuravlev, who headed the western grouping
The full MoD update said: ‘Eight months into the invasion, major elements of Russia’s military leadership are increasingly dysfunctional.
‘At the tactical level, there is almost certainly a worsening shortage of capable Russian junior officers to organise and lead newly mobilised reservists.
‘Eyewitness testimony suggests that the shooting of 11 Russian soldiers near Belgorod by a fellow recruit on 15 October 2022 occurred after an officer’s abusive comments towards ethnic minority recruits.
‘Poor lower-level leadership is likely worsening the low morale and poor unit cohesion in many parts of the Russian force.
‘Four of the five generals with direct operational command of elements of the invasion in February 2022 have now been dismissed. Their replacements have so far done little to improve Russia’s battlefield performance.
‘The lack of command continuity will likely be more disruptive than in a Western military because under Russian doctrine the development of plans sits largely with the commander personally, rather than as a collective effort across a broader staff.’
Putin is now eight months into what was intended to be a days-long war ending with the collapse of the Ukrainian government.
But he has instead found himself caught up in a grinding war of attrition that has minced his armed forces and may yet result in total defeat.
Putin is now eight months into what was intended to be a days-long war ending with the collapse of the Ukrainian government. Pictured: Aleksandr Zhuravlev
But he has instead found himself caught up in a grinding war of attrition that has minced his armed forces and may yet result in total defeat. Pictured: Gennady Zhidko
Russia has already been forced to retreat from the cities of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv in Ukraine’s north, which were the key objectives of the war.
Attacks in the Donbas have proved mildly more successful but have failed to result in a decisive victory. Instead, they have sapped Putin’s army of strength to hold back Ukraine’s advances elsewhere.
Kyiv’s men now appear poised to retake at least partial control of the city of Kherson, in the south, as Russian occupation officials begin evacuating civilians.
Volodymyr Saldo, the Kremlin’s man in Kherson, said 60,000 civilians will leave over the next six days – suggesting the city could fall within a week.
If Russia is forced to retreat here, then it would be the most embarrassing defeat that Putin has yet suffered – which has sparked fears about how he might respond.
Within Russia, concern is growing that he may use today’s emergency meeting of the security council to declare all-out war – granting him sweeping powers to close borders, declare martial law and force more men into the army.
Meanwhile in the West, speculation is growing that he could be ramping himself up for the first open-air detonation of a nuclear weapon since the 1960s.
Such a blast could take place at a testing ground in the Russian far east, or else over the Black Sea to demonstrate his stockpile of ageing warheads still works.