New York special election victory gives Democrats hope for midterms – live

Democrats have the slimmest of majorities in Congress, and thus it’s not hard to see how they could lose the House and potentially the Senate in the November midterms.

Joe Biden’s unpopularity is one thing working against them, and then there’s the historic tendency for the party in power to lose big in their first midterm – as Donald Trump found out in 2018, and Barack Obama eight years before that.

The lesson Democrats are drawing from Pat Ryan’s victory over Republican Marc Molinaro in a closely divided upstate New York House district is that this will be no ordinary year. Ryan won by capitalizing on the supreme court’s Dobbs decision ending nearly a half-century of nationwide abortion rights, and Democrats are no doubt hoping the dynamic repeats in races across the country.

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report largely agreed that Ryan’s victory indicated Democratic voters were unusually fired up, but warned that may not translate to a continued majority in the House:

Lots of focus on Dems being more engaged/energetic post-Dobbs, which is undeniably true. But to me, the GOP/Trump base appears less engaged than it was last November, which is just as big a part of the story.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022

If not for a devastating string of legal defeats towards the end of redistricting (esp. FL, NY, OH), Dems might have a good shot to hold the House. As it stands, still believe Rs are clear favorites in a higher-turnout scenario, which November will be.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022

Key events

Democrats in a deeply conservative Florida district have chosen as their congressional candidate Rebekah Jones, a former health department employee who was a fierce critic of governor Ron DeSantis’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the New York Times reports.

Jones will go up against Republican congressman Matt Gaetz in a district viewed as a safe for the GOP, despite the lawmaker’s scandals. Jones burst into the public spotlight during the pandemic’s early months after being fired from her job and accusing DeSantis of mishandling Covid-19 cases, though she is under investigation herself. Here’s a brief recap from the Times:

That clash put a spotlight on Ms. Jones in 2020, when she claimed that she had been fired from her government job for refusing to suppress virus data from the public. In what became a monthslong saga, Ms. Jones filed a whistle-blower complaint, turned into a vocal critic of Mr. DeSantis and was eventually criminally charged with accessing a state computer and downloading a file without authorization.

The criminal case against Ms. Jones is pending. In May, an inspector general for the Department of Health found that three allegations that Ms. Jones had made against several health officials were “unsubstantiated.”

In Florida, Democrats picked Charlie Crist as their candidate to stand against governor Ron DeSantis in November, in what will be a test of whether voters are on board with the Republican’s culture war offensive:

Charlie Crist will challenge Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, in November after trouncing Nikki Fried, the state agriculture commissioner, in Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

Crist, a former Republican governor of Florida who switched parties and became a Democratic congressman, fought a campaign touting his experience in office and opposition to the 15-week abortion ban signed by DeSantis.

In his victory speech in St Petersburg, Crist promised that if elected he will on his first day in office sign an executive order overturing the abortion law.

And he pledged to end the White House hopes of “wannabe dictator” DeSantis, who is tipped as a likely contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. DeSantis has signed a raft of culture war legislation in Florida, attacking LBGTQ+ rights and “woke” corporations.

Here’s more from Reuters on the Democratic victory in upstate New York last night:

A New York Democrat who campaigned on abortion rights and the future of US democracy has won a special congressional election in a swing district, a victory that Democrats hope could signal a fundamental shift in national voter sentiment ahead of the November midterm elections.

Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51.3% to 48.7%, with 99% of the vote counted, Edison Research said, after a hard-fought contest for an open seat in New York’s 19th congressional District, which spans part of the Hudson Valley and Catskill Mountains region and is known as a bellwether.

The election took on outsized national importance and became a testing ground for both parties’ campaign strategies. Ryan made the US supreme court’s decision to overturn abortion rights a centrepiece of his campaign, mobilising Democrats outraged by the ruling. Molinaro focused on crime and soaring inflation that voters say is their most pressing concern.

Democrats have the slimmest of majorities in Congress, and thus it’s not hard to see how they could lose the House and potentially the Senate in the November midterms.

Joe Biden’s unpopularity is one thing working against them, and then there’s the historic tendency for the party in power to lose big in their first midterm – as Donald Trump found out in 2018, and Barack Obama eight years before that.

The lesson Democrats are drawing from Pat Ryan’s victory over Republican Marc Molinaro in a closely divided upstate New York House district is that this will be no ordinary year. Ryan won by capitalizing on the supreme court’s Dobbs decision ending nearly a half-century of nationwide abortion rights, and Democrats are no doubt hoping the dynamic repeats in races across the country.

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report largely agreed that Ryan’s victory indicated Democratic voters were unusually fired up, but warned that may not translate to a continued majority in the House:

Lots of focus on Dems being more engaged/energetic post-Dobbs, which is undeniably true. But to me, the GOP/Trump base appears less engaged than it was last November, which is just as big a part of the story.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022

If not for a devastating string of legal defeats towards the end of redistricting (esp. FL, NY, OH), Dems might have a good shot to hold the House. As it stands, still believe Rs are clear favorites in a higher-turnout scenario, which November will be.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 24, 2022

Surprise election win signals Democrats may be stronger than they appear

Good morning, US politics blog readers. Democrats scored a victory in upstate New York last night, when a candidate who had campaigned on protecting abortion rights triumphed over his Republican challenger for a vacant seat in the House of Representatives. The victory has given the party hope that they have a shot at keeping their majorities in Congress in November’s midterm election, despite President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings and voters’ historical tendency to punish the party holding the White House. Expect to hear plenty more about what this result portends today.

Here’s what else is on the agenda:

  • Biden is heading back to the White House from vacation in Delaware, and is expected to make public his long-anticipated decision on student debt relief.

  • Washington has announced $3bn more in military aid for Ukraine on the country’s independence day, which will go towards long-term improvements to its defenses.

  • Ballot counting continues in the special election for Alaska’s vacant House seat, with the Democratic candidate maintaining her lead.

source: theguardian.com