Has the Republican midterm ‘red wave’ crested? | Lloyd Green

Donald Trump’s week from hell has turned red hot. On Friday, reports emerged that he was under suspicion of having violated the Espionage Act, removing or destroying records and obstructing an investigation. Separate inventory receipts reflect that FBI agents hauled-off a trove of classified documents from Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Palm Beach domicile and club.

Specifically, agents found four sets of “top secret documents”, three sets of “secret documents” and three sets of “confidential documents”. Whether any of this pertains to US nuclear capabilities remains a mystery.

On Thursday night, the Washington Post had reported that the FBI searched for “nuclear documents and other items, sources say even worse.” For his part, Trump denied the search related to nuclear weapons, and branded those allegations a “hoax”.

Earlier on Thursday, Merrick Garland, the attorney general, told reporters that the buck stopped with him. At the same time, the Department of Justice also moved to unseal the search warrant and inventory list.

“Absent objection” by Trump, the justice department asked the court to make public both the search warrant and the inventory. Late Thursday, the former president acceded to the department’s gambit. “Release the documents now!”, Trump announced on Truth Social.

Nukes and the pungent whiff of espionage possibly committed by the ex-president now waft through the air. Jay Bratt signed the Department of Justice filing. He heads the department’s counterintelligence and export control office.

Once upon a time, Trump contemplated pardoning Julian Assange and Edward Snowden. Both men were charged under the Espionage Act.

In his book on the Trump presidency, Rage, Bob Woodward quoted Trump as saying: “We have stuff that you haven’t even seen or heard about. We have stuff that Putin and Xi have never heard about before. There’s nobody – what we have is incredible.”

As an act of deflection, Trump also attacked the 44th president: “I continue to ask, what happened to the 33mn pages of documents taken to Chicago by President Obama.”

Earlier in the week, Trump declared that the FBI had defiled his safe-space. On cue, members of his family, the Republican party and right-wing media trashed the feds and the Biden administration. On Thursday night, they went momentarily silent.

Until then, they did their best to paint the former guy as a victim. Senator Rand Paul raised the specter of planted evidence. Rudy Giuliani vowed that if Trump were re-elected, the feds would swoop down on the Bidens. One Trump-fundraising blast read: “Remember, they were never after President Trump. They have always been after YOU.”

This is the same crowd that continued to demand – six years after the 2016 election –that Hillary Clinton be locked-up. Said differently, “law and order” means whatever they choose it to mean, like Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland. “Neither more nor less”.

On that score, the FBI field office in Cincinnati came under attack by Ricky Walter Shiffer just before Garland’s announcement. Law enforcement later confirmed that they had killed him. Shiffer was at the Capitol on January 6. In death, he had finally caught up with Ashli Babbitt. For the record, Shiffer and Babbitt were veterans.

The blow-up over Mar-a-Lago has helped Trump regain his sway over the Republican party. With the notable exception of Sen Tim Scott of South Carolina, senior Republicans have again prostrated themselves: Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Mitch McConnell, Ron DeSantis, Kevin McCarthy, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio. The band is back.

Yet all this comes at a steep-cost to their ambitions. The anticipated red-wave in the upcoming midterms may have crested. The Republican party underperformed in Minnesota’s recent special congressional election. Now, the party stands to lose its natural advantage on national security issues.

Beyond that, the latest Fox News poll reports that the Democrats have tied the Republican party on the generic House ballot, at 41% all. Just months ago, the Republicans held a seven-point lead. Meanwhile, the public disapproves of the supreme court overturning Roe v Wade by a greater than a three-two margin.

White women without four-year degrees disapprove even more strongly (60-35) than those who are college graduates (54-44). Suburban women give the end of Roe a deep thumbs-down, 65-33. The raging culture war and Trump’s antics may even enable Nancy Pelosi to continue wielding the speaker’s gavel in January 2023.

This fall Trump will be on the ballot even if his name does not appear. Whether he will be under indictment is the open question.

source: theguardian.com