UFC Fight Night Long Island picks, predictions: Ortega vs. Rodriguez today

Welcome to the east coast UFC Fight Night. Live from Long Island starts very early in the day; the prelims begin at 11 a.m. Eastern.

Unfortunately, last week was our first goose egg, 0-3. Absolutely brutal night but can’t hide from the losses.

Rafael Dos Anjos lost most of the minutes against Fiziev, and Ronnie Lawrence’s wrestling did not translate.

Short memory, though, as we have banked just under 30 units of profit in just a few months. Regardless, losses like that are never ideal and is something that we hope to correct this weekend.

Tis’ the life of a gambler.

UFC Fight Night picks and predictions

Yair Rodriguez (+145) vs. Brian Ortega (-170)

Rightful favorite Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez in what is expected to be an extremely competitive fight in the featherweight division.

As a jiu-jitsu practitioner, Ortega is a personal favorite and is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster. His ability to submit his opponents in creative ways, particularly with his front headlocks, is pretty unique.

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Ortega is not a one-trick pony either. His striking has improved dramatically, and he will absolutely give Rodriguez a run for his money on the feet. If this fight hits the mat, Rodriguez is in a world of trouble.

Rodriguez’s stand-up game is very impressive at this point. It’s also worth noting that Rodriguez was a serious prospect before taking long intervals of time off at two separate junctures, essentially killing his momentum as a true prospect.

The problem with backing Rodriguez here is that he treats nearly every fight like it is a war. A war is entertaining to watch but terrible for his career. Rodriguez did have a Q&A with The Post’s Scott Fontana where he discussed following an actual strategy. For now, this is a “believe it when you see it” type of situation. Being in the cage following a strategy isn’t something we have seen from him yet.

Furthermore, any clinch situation could result in a submission attempt. Essentially a death sentence for Rodriguez. Moreover, the striking advantage that Rodriguez has is not clear enough to back him, making Ortega the play here with more ways to win.

For the more risky bettors, Ortega to win by submission in rounds two, three, or four is +650 on FanDuel. Very worthy bet this weekend.

UFC Fight Night picks

  • Brian Ortega wins by submission +280 (FanDuel)
  • Brian Ortega moneyline -170 (Caesars)
Brian Ortega faces off with challenger Yair Rodriguez
Brian Ortega faces off with challenger Yair Rodriguez
Zuffa LLC

Betting on Sports?

Shane Burgos (-170) vs. Charles Jourdain (+145)

Fight of the Night contender right her as Shane Burgos faces off against Charles Jourdain in the featherweight division.

There will be a significant size difference here as Burgos has a six-inch reach advantage and is two inches taller. Burgos loves getting into these fights where they stand and play “Rock’em Sock’em Robots”.

This is a spot where Burgos needs to use that reach and size advantage to his benefit. Thankfully for bettors, the big octagon is in effect for the card in Long Island, clearly benefiting Burgos. The ring size is 30 percent smaller at the UFC APEX center in Las Vegas compared to the one everywhere else.

Since both are very accustomed to highly violent fights, it would appear likely that neither fighter backs down early. Favoring Burgos here, and if he does finish, it’s usually in round three. Burgos to win in round three or by decision comes in at +175 on PointsBet and is the play for this one.

UFC Fight Night picks

  • Burgos wins in round 3 or by decision +175 (PointsBet)
source: nypost.com