As the Phillies and Cardinals get set to begin a four-game series tonight in St. Louis, BJ Cunningham of The Action Network is here to deliver his best bet (video above).
Interestingly, these sides completed a separate series only five days ago with the Phillies winning two of three at home, including a 4-0 win on Sunday Night Baseball. Tonight, the Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the hill against Adam Wainwright for the Cardinals, who have dropped four of their last five games.
For Cunningham, he believes this is a good spot to back the visitors, especially considering bettors have seen this exact pitching matchup recently.
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“This isn’t that great of a matchup for the Cardinals, who struggle against sliders with a -13 run value,” Cunningham says. “Zack Wheeler has an outstanding slider that’s allowing only a .210 expected batting average.”
Plus, Wheeler has proven himself a top starting pitcher in all of Major League Baseball this season. He brings a 2.75 xERA into tonight’s contest against a 2.66 realistic ERA.
On the flip-side, Wainwright is a negative regression candidate entering tonight’s game. The right-hander brings a 3.26 ERA into Friday’s tilt, but simultaneously carries a 4.40 xERA.
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As a result, Cunningham is choosing to back the Phillies Moneyline (-130, BetMGM) a mere five days after they closed as -170 favorites against this same side. Ultimately, Cunningham believes the Cardinals home-field advantage is not worth 40 cents to the line.