Russia-Ukraine war: bloodiest battle ends as Ukrainian fighters evacuated from Mariupol steel plant – live

Russia is conducting its main combat efforts in the Donetsk region, Ukraine’s general staff has said in its 6am update, claiming that Ukrainian forces had repulsed 11 attacks in Donetsk and Luhansk over the past 24 hours, destroying equipment including five tanks, one Tor anti-aircraft missile system, six artillery systems, and 12 armoured combat vehicles.

It also said Russian aircraft had “destroyed civilian and military infrastructure in the Eastern Operational Zone and industrial facilities deep in Ukraine” without giving any more details.

In Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces have reportedly driven back Russian forces to the Russian border, the “enemy’s main efforts are focused on maintaining their positions and preventing the advance of our troops.”

The general staff also said it was compiling a separate report on the “total losses of the enemy” which would be published soon.

It has been very difficult to verify the scale of Russian losses in the war.

Moscow last released casualty data in late March, admitting that 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed and 3,825 wounded in the first month of the war. The government has not released any more information on casualties in the last month and a half, except to say that they were “significant”.

Western estimates have been 10 or even 20 times as high, with some suggesting that Russia has lost more than 30,000 soldiers since the beginning of the war.

A surprisingly candid assessment from a Russian analyst on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with subtitles provided by the BBC’s Francis Scarr – fascinating viewing if you have five minutes to watch it.

Mikhail Khodaryonok argues that Russian reports of demoralisation among Ukrainian troops are just individual cases and not indicative of a general mood. In fact, he says, Ukrainians are highly motivated and ready to die for their country, which he says is a “component of an army’s high combat readiness, one of the most important components.”

He also warns against “sabre-rattling with missiles in Finland’s direction … after all the main deficiency of our military-political position is that, in a way, we are in full geopolitical isolation and that, however much we would hate to admit this, virtually the entire world is against us.”

A bit more from the ISW assessment, which says there is growing friction between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators in occupied areas of Ukraine, while inside Russia military bloggers are increasingly in-line with western assessments of Russian military failures.

Russian forces in Zaporizhia, are having “serious conflicts” with collaborators due to “interpersonal power conflicts,” in the Zaporizhia region, the US-based think tank cites the region’s military administrations as saying.

A well-known collaborator in Zaporizhia accused the Russian-installed governor of the area of stealing his 10,000 ruble compensation. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryshchenko additionally claimed that relatives of those mobilized into the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are holding a mass protest against mobilization in Donetsk City.

While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, such discontent amongst occupation elements suggests a general lack of planning by Russian authorities in occupied areas, now compounded by increasingly evident Russian losses.

The ISW meanwhile predicted that the “continued disenchantment of pro-Russian milbloggers with the Russian war effort may fuel dissatisfaction in Russia itself, especially if Moscow continues to press recruitment and conscription efforts that send poorly-trained cannon-fodder to the front lines.”

One such blogger, Igor Strelkov, claimed that the Russian offensive to take Donbas has ultimately failed and that “not a single large settlement “has been liberated.

Strelkov even noted that the capture of Rubizhne [a city in Luhansk] is relatively insignificant because it happened before the new offensive in Donbas had begun.

Strelkov stated that Russian forces are unlikely to liberate Donbas by the summer and that Ukrainian troops will hold their positions around Donetsk City.

Strelkov notably claimed that Russian failures thus far have not surprised him because the intent of Russian command has been so evident throughout the operation that Ukrainian troops are aware of exactly how to best respond and warns that Russian troops are fighting to the point of exhaustion under “rules proposed by the enemy.”

The Russian withdrawal from around Kharkiv is different from previous Russian withdrawals from around Kyiv and other cities, when they pulled back to Russian territory, in that they are trying to retain a position in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War think tank writes in its latest assessment of the conflict.

The Russian grouping around Kharkiv City is notably trying to hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further north.

Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod, a major city in Russia and a key hub of the Russian military effort.

The Russians might alternatively hope to conduct a counter-counter-offensive to push back south toward Kharkiv, although such an effort is highly unlikely to succeed.

Ukrainian soldiers evacuated from Mariupol steel works

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