If the major elements of the European proposal are carried out, Russia’s war in Ukraine could have a huge, albeit unwitting, consequence: It could hasten Europe’s transition away from fossil fuels.
“The developments in the energy markets over the last months have underscored the necessity to accelerate the clean energy transition and reduce permanently our dependence on imports of natural gas,” the draft document states. “Diversifying supplies, frontloading renewable energy and improving energy efficiency is the best insurance against price shocks.”
To reduce Europe’s reliance on Russia, lots of new infrastructure is being built to take in liquefied gas from the United States and elsewhere. In Europe, as my colleagues Liz Alderman and Stanley Reed told me recently, L.N.G. import terminals are already being expanded in Belgium and Poland; a new one was recently approved in Greece with European Union funding; Germany this week fast-tracked the construction of two new import terminals.
In the United States, my colleague Clifford Krauss noted, a new L.N.G. export facility is scheduled to start operating in Calcasieu Pass, La., this year; expansions are underway in two Texas export facilities; and an additional 10 export projects are under consideration. Nearly a quarter of American L.N.G. exports went to Europe in 2021. Over the last few months, Europe has been the top destination for U.S. exports.
So, could Europe survive without Russian gas next winter?
A recent analysis by Bruegel, a think tank based in Brussels, suggests it could, but not without reducing demand, changing regulations and spending a lot more money. Some Europeans seem to be taking action to protect themselves. Electric heat pumps, one of the most cost-effective ways to replace gas-fired boilers, spread swiftly in Europe for the first time in 2021, though nowhere as fast as is necessary, as Jan Rosenow, a director at the Regulatory Assistance Project, explained in a Twitter thread this week.
Britain, meanwhile, has said it intends to continue drilling in its part of the North Sea, but its secretary for business and energy, Kwasi Kwarteng, said this week that his country’s energy security would ultimately have to come from renewables, which in Britain includes nuclear power.
“It would be complete madness to turn off our domestic source of gas,” he said on Twitter. “But the long-term solution is obvious: Gas is more expensive than renewable energy, so we need to move away from gas.”