KYIV, Ukraine — Washington and the West have been shouting from the rafters that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is all but certain — it’s only a question of when. Kyiv continues to be more restrained.
Washington’s alarmist announcements have attempted to undercut any element of surprise that the Kremlin might plan to utilize in an invasion. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government has been doing its best to maintain calm at home to prevent disorder and economic damage that would further weaken the country.
The big question is how long Kyiv’s cool demeanor — amid the urgent threat of war — can last.
In a Feb. 18 statement to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, U.S. Ambassador Michael Carpenter delivered the most alarming assessment of the Russian troop build-up, noting that the Kremlin now has between 169,000 and 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, up from 100,000 a month ago.
This estimate includes military troops along the border and in Belarus and Crimea, along with Russian-allied separatist forces in the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Carpenter reiterated that the situation remains on a knife’s edge. “We are aware that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion into Ukraine. We have reports from multiple sources that provide detail on Russia’s efforts to fabricate supposed ‘Ukrainian provocations’ and shape a public narrative that would justify a Russian invasion,” the statement said.
Feb. 17 saw intensified shelling in Donbas — 60 attacks were recorded, including 43 from weapons banned under the Minsk agreements, compared to the handful of attacks seen on an average day. The town of Stanytsya Luhanska in Ukrainian-controlled territory was the hardest hit, with one shell striking a kindergarten, wounding three teachers. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov called it a “war crime.”
Meanwhile, the disinformation war has shifted into high gear. Telegram channels suspected of being controlled by Russia and Russian-backed operatives said that Ukrainian forces were the ones responsible for the kindergarten attack, reports which were then picked up by Russian news sites. In the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic, Russian-allied officials there on Feb. 18 said they prevented the sabotage of two chemical plants near the city of Horlivka in a supposed attempt to release ammonia, accusing the armed forces of Ukraine.
The latest provocations, denials and accusations have raised concerns that Russia seems on the brink of making its move. However, top Ukrainian officials still think that Moscow may be escalating not necessarily as a preparation for all-out war but as a tactic to create more diplomatic pressure to force Kyiv and the West to accept its conditions.
In a meeting with parliament on Feb. 18, Reznikov said that Russia’s actions were likely intended to provide a backdrop to yesterday’s U.N. Security Council meeting on the Minsk agreements.
“This is a traditional tactic of the Russian side,” he said. “Every time before a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group, Normandy format meetings, before any important international events related to the Russian-Ukrainian war, some kind of incidents are arranged to create a background that Russia considers beneficial,” he said.
“Our task is not to do what the Russian Federation is pushing us to do. To fight back, but keep a cool head. Because the provocations will not stop. The Kremlin is still preparing justifications for recognizing the temporarily occupied territories based on a scenario worked out in Georgia,” he said.
Indeed, on Feb. 18, officials in the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) announced mass evacuations of civilians into Russia, claiming that they are expecting an attack by Ukraine. Videos of lines of buses and air raid sirens in occupied territories appeared on Ukrainian Telegram channels.
Russian-allied separatists also alleged that several explosions rang out in and around Donetsk on Friday, which had not been independently verified as of publication time.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba refuted accusations that Ukraine is planning any kind of attack.
Local officials in Russia’s region of Rostov, where the evacuees are supposedly being taken, told the media that they were unaware of any such plans. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reportedly said that he doesn’t know what’s going on with DNR leader Denis Pushilin’s evacuation announcement. However, soon after, the Russian news website Meduza reported that Putin was offering each evacuee 10,000 rubles in cash.
Western assessments of the troop buildup continue to make the case that an invasion is imminent. U.S. officials repeatedly warned on Thursday that far from pulling back, Russian troops were moving closer to the Ukrainian border and their activity has only intensified. Reznikov said Ukraine has constant eyes on the region from unmanned drones and gets direct information from other countries’ intelligence.
A Ukrainian defense attache will be present for the end of the Russian-Belarusian military exercises in Belarus on Feb. 19. Whether that’s a true confidence-building measure, or a ruse, is anyone’s guess.
Kyiv is not thrilled, however, about the ongoing cycle of threat inflation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was on the front lines yesterday as part of a scheduled visit, in an interview with RBC said that the West’s constant reporting of invasion dates causes “losses on all fronts” for Ukraine, including economically.
Zelenskyy said he believes the Russians are playing into the West’s grim predictions and are prepared to do so for a long time to keep Ukraine under pressure — and to get what they want.
“The issue is that in dialogue with other countries, Russia raises the issue of Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance,” Zelensky told RBC. “And puts it either as a condition, or as a negotiating position…. We know this, they do not hide the fact that they are frankly against Ukraine becoming a member of NATO. We, of course, do not accept this position.”
The probability of a large-scale operation to capture all or most of Ukraine or individual cities is not likely, according to a Feb. 11 assessment by the Center for Defense Strategies, a think tank that includes former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, and published in the newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.
The center maintains that the Russian forces on the borders are insufficient for a large-scale operation aimed at capturing all or most of Ukraine. Moreover, the assessment notes, there are no significant Russian measures to create strategic reserves or further mobilize reinforcements in the event of war.
However, “the Kremlin’s attempt to organize a trigger event — a planned provocation, for example, in eastern Ukraine — remains plausible” to “legitimize the entry of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine or an armed escalation on the front line. In general, the aggravation in eastern Ukraine is highly probable,” the report noted.
In spite of the looming threat, daily life in Kyiv has continued as normal, with its frequent traffic jams and welcoming nightlife. While concerned, many local residents are also jaded by the frequent alarming news and determined to do their best if the situation escalates.
If an invasion does reach the capital, authorities are making evacuation plans for the entire population, according to statements by Roman Tkachuk, head of Kyiv’s municipal security. Only critical infrastructure workers and military personnel would remain behind. Tkachuk, however, echoed that a direct attack on Kyiv is unlikely.