Russia-Ukraine crisis: where are Putin’s troops and what are his options?

Why are there tensions?

Russia has forward-deployed hundreds of tanks, self-propelled artillery and even short-range ballistic missiles from as far away as Siberia to within striking range of Ukraine’s borders. US intelligence has said Russia could launch an offensive by the end of January with as many as 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs), comprising an estimated 175,000 troops. Current estimates say Russia has about 50 BTGs in the border region, already a significant force that could overrun Ukrainian defensive positions.

Russia’s rhetoric has grown more belligerent. Vladimir Putin has demanded legal guarantees that Ukraine will never join Nato or host its missile strike systems, concessions he is not likely to receive. He is also short on time. His troops cannot remain out of garrison indefinitely. By late winter he will probably have to launch an attack or draw down his forces in what would look like a retreat.

How did we get here?

In 2014 Putin sent troops to annex Crimea, a mainly Russian-speaking region of Ukraine. Russia also incited a separatist uprising in Ukraine’s south-east, clandestinely sending soldiers and weapons to provoke a conflict that grew into a full-blown war.

A 2015 peace deal established a line of demarcation and called on both sides to make concessions. Since then low-level fighting has continued along the front, and both sides have accused the other of violating the agreement, which observers say is close to collapse.

Map showing disputed regions in Ukraine

Russia no longer wants to maintain the status quo and is looking for another way to assert control over Ukraine.

What do we know about the deployments?

Many of the heavy weapons stationed near Ukraine arrived in the spring, when Russia put an estimated 110,000 troops with tanks and other heavy weaponry near the border. Russia returned some, but not all, of its troops to base in May after Putin secured a summit with Joe Biden.

Map of Russian military deployments

One of the largest forces to remain comes from the 41st Combined Arms Army, which is headquartered in Novosibirsk almost 2,000 miles away. Stationed at the Pogonovo training area south of Voronezh since spring, some of the 41st CAA forces have moved to Yelnya, a town in the Smolensk region closer to Belarus.

Equipment reportedly belonging to the 41st CAA near Yelnya on 9 November
Equipment reportedly belonging to the 41st CAA near Yelnya on 9 November. Photograph: Maxar/AFP/Getty Images

The equipment includes motorised infantry, main battle tanks, rocket artillery and Iskander short-range ballistic missiles comprising an estimated six or seven BTGs, according to an estimate by the independent defence analyst Konrad Muzyka.

Tanks, motorised infantry and rocket artillery from the 1st Guards Tank Army headquartered in the Moscow region have been moved to the Pogonovo training area, according to Muzyka’s estimates.

A satellite image taken on 26 November shows Russian troop locations at the Pogonovo training ground in the Voronezh region
A satellite image taken on 26 November shows Russian troop locations at the Pogonovo training ground in the Voronezh region.
Two satellite photos of the Pogonovo training area on 26 November
Two satellite photos of the Pogonovo training area on 26 November. Photograph: Maxar Technologies, AP

Other recent movements show motor rifle brigades from the 49th Combined Arms Army moving towards Crimea. Artillery and air-defence assets from the 58th Combined Arms Army have also been spotted in satellite photographs taken from above Novoozerne in western Crimea.

Equipment from the 58th CAA in Novoozerne on 18 October.
Equipment thought to be from the 58th CAA in Novoozerne on 18 October. Photograph: Maxar Technologies, AP

There are also units permanently deployed near Ukraine from the 8th and 20th Combined Arms Armies. And Ukraine estimates tens of thousands of troops are stationed in the Russian-backed separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.

What form could a Russian attack take?

A map released by Ukrainian military intelligence in November showed a worst-case scenario: Russian forces crossing the Ukrainian border from the east and attacking from annexed Crimea, as well as launching an amphibious assault on Odessa with support from Russian soldiers in Transnistria and troops sent in from Belarus. Some aspects of the plan, such as offensives from the east and via Crimea, already appear possible. Others, such as an attack from Belarus, appear to factor in troops that have not yet arrived in the region.

Russia could assert dominance with a less extensive operation. The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service told the New York Times that his nightmare scenario involved airstrikes and rocket attacks on ammunition depots and trenches that could leave the military incapacitated, leaving frontline commanders to fight on alone. They would fall, he said, if Russia launched a full-strength invasion. At that point Russia could seek to strong-arm Kyiv into a disadvantageous peace deal.

Map showing invasion scenarios.

Other options include sending a “peacekeeping force” or clandestinely deploying troops under the guise of separatist forces to Donetsk and Luhansk. From there they could reinvigorate the fighting along the frontline or seek to capture new territory.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, one option would be to break out from Donetsk to try to establish a land bridge connecting Crimea to territory near Rostov, as well as seizing the Kherson region north of Crimea and securing the North-Crimean Canal. Russia would need to capture Mariupol, a large city that is very well defended, to make this plan work.

The potential economic blowback of any new fighting would be enormous as the US and its allies are promising “significant and severe” sanctions in the event of an attack.

The last option may be the most likely: Russia seeks concessions from the west in negotiations while maintaining its troops along the border for a credible threat of escalation. Putin has said he believes high tensions are useful for Russia and he has already pulled back his troops from Ukraine once this year.

Nevertheless, analysts say that without a clear diplomatic victory, any drawdown could look like a defeat.

What is the role of Nord Stream 2?

The completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea gives both sides an economic weapon. The pipeline would allow Russia to send gas to Europe without going through Ukraine, meaning Moscow could pile pressure on Kyiv without the risk that Kyiv would cut the gas supply route in retaliation. Ukraine has lobbied furiously against the project, saying it undermines its national security.

Map showing where the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is

However, the pipeline, which has become a pet project of Putin’s, has not yet come online, and western governments have signalled that in the case of invasion, that may never happen.

source: theguardian.com