England v South Africa: T20 World Cup – live!

5th over: South Africa 26-1 (de Kock 13, van der Dussen 9) Moeen’s wicket earns him a third over on the trot. It goes for five singles, as if this contest has reached the quiet middle overs already.

4th over: South Africa 21-1 (de Kock 11, van der Dussen 6) Rassie van der Dussen has come in early, threatening to wreak havoc with The Guardian’s auto-correct: he’s only been there two minutes and already he’s appeared on my screen as Dissen and Russen. Apologies in advance for whatever he turns into next. Anyway he starts well, strolling across his stumps to ramp Woakes for four.

“To answer Justin Horton’s question,” says Tom Hopkins, “if my arithmetic serves then if (say) South Africa make 200 England would need 95 to finish ahead of Australia. I think that would qualify as losing ‘quite badly’?” Ha, it would. And thanks for the single quotes, most thoughtful.

3rd over: South Africa 16-1 (de Kock 11, van der Dussen 1) Like Woakes, Mo has a commanding air about him at the moment. de Kock did manage one more wallop over mid-off, but that was a small price to pay for an early wicket.

Oh dear. Reeza Hendricks, stuck on 2 after eight balls, goes for a big sweep and misses a straight one.

2nd over: South Africa 9-0 (Hendricks 2, de Kock 7) At the other end it’s Chris Woakes, who’s been bowling with such authority in this World Cup. He produces three dots and three singles, and his length is as immaculate as his hair.

1st over: South Africa 6-0 (Hendricks 1, de Kock 5) It’s Moeen Ali to get the game under way. Morgan fancies him to get Quinton de Kock, but it’s de Kock – fortified by taking the knee – who strikes the first blow, going inside-out to loft a one-bounce four over extra-cover.

“Never mind South Africa’s chances,” says Justin Horton, “how badly – no matter how unlikely – would England have to lose in order not to qualify?” Put it this way: they’d have to send Nasser Hussain out there. Even if SA make it up the mountain, England will almost certainly still be top of the group.

“The Wood decision does seem odd at first glance,” says Stephen Holliday, “but then again, maybe Morgan wants to test his ankle in a dead rubber rather than in a semi-final. And it’s probably better for him to have a few overs under his belt going into a semi.” True. And Wood’s skiddy trajectory should be just the job on this low slow surface.

South Africa’s net run rate, from their four games so far, is 0.74. Australia’s has ended up at 1.12, thanks to David Warner’s domineering performance today. Our learned friends at Cricinfo reckon SA need to make 160 and then bowl England out for 100 to squeeze into the semis. Well, it’s possible.

Wood for Mills is the only change for either side.

South Africa 1 de Kock (wkt), 2 Hendricks, 3 Markram, 4 Bavuma (capt), 5 van Dissen, 6 Miller, 7 Pretorius, 8 Maharaj, 9 Rabada, 10 Nortje, 11 Shamsi.

England 1 Roy, 2 Buttler (wkt), 3 Malan, 4 Bairstow, 5 Morgan (capt), 6 Livingstone, 7 Moeen, 8 Woakes, 9 Jordan, 10 Rashid, 11 Wood.

Eoin Morgan resists the temptation to give South Africa a chance.

“To judge from the team huddle,” Simon adds, “Mark Wood is back in the side tonight, replacing the injured Tymal Mills. I didn’t think they’d risk his ankle in a game that isn’t a must-win, but he was definitely getting congratulatory back-slaps for something.” Maybe he’s a Man City fan.

The first email comes in and it’s from our man on the spot, Simon Burnton. “Apparently they’re using the same track that New Zealand and Namibia played on yesterday,” he reports. “I didn’t see that game but I’m told it wasn’t the best, with occasional inexplicably low bounce. More happily, the last time England played here, against Sri Lanka on Monday, it was an absolute raging furnace of an evening in Sharjah, but tonight is positively balmy, with a very pleasant gentle breeze. I expect this means less dew, and certainly less sweat, than there was that night.”

Afternoon everyone and welcome to a World Cup match that matters far more to one side than the other. England, with their immaculate record so far, can afford a bad day; South Africa can barely afford a bad over. They need not just a win but a rout, to make sure they squeeze ahead of Australia, who seem to be cruising to victory over West Indies. When that game ends, South Africa will know just how much of a mountain they have to climb.

Well, anything can happen in Twenty20 … or so we thought until this tournament. There have been two broad surprises – West Indies flopping and India wobbling – but precious few matches have been upsets. Bangladesh and Scotland haven’t mustered a point between them, while England and Pakistan haven’t dropped one. This match is at Sharjah, where England toiled for the first ten overs against Sri Lanka’s spinners. But they still won.