Democrats were bracing for the prospect Tuesday night that the party’s poor performance in Virginia compared to just a year ago could bode ill for the party’s keeping control of the House and Senate.
Even before networks called the race for the Republican, Glenn Youngkin found ways be over-performing in rural areas carried by former President Donald Trump – while mitigating losses in suburban areas to assemble a lead over Democrat Terry McCauliffe.
It all happened in a ‘purple’ state where Democrat Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump just a year ago. Republicans haven’t won a statewide race there since 2009.
Now, with networks calling the race for Youngkin, Democrats must assess whether Republicans have tapped into a new way to motivate voters by revving up cultural issues and opposing Democrats’ unified control of government.
‘Needless to say, tonight’s results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022,’ wrote Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report Tuesday night.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is trying to advance Biden’s multi-billion spending packages. She holds just a three-seat majority in the House
The party has just a year to develop messaging and an agenda to help the party hang onto the Democrats’ three-seat majority in the House and preserve control in the 50-50 Senate, in an off-year cycle where the president’s party usually loses power.
Already anxious Democrats can look to 2009, when Republican victories in the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia presaged the Tea Party wave of 2010.
On Tuesday night, Republican Jack Jack Ciattarelli was narrowly leading Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy in a state Biden won by 16 percentage points last year.
Members of the party’s progressive wing, which has been battling a pair of Senate centrists over President Joe Biden’s Built Back Better plan, were already trying to put the blame on establishment Democrats.
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) retweeted a comment by Twitter user Secular Talk that said ‘Can’t wait for the left to be blamed for a not at all left democrat losing a D+10 state.’ She added a face-smacking emoji.
Former Housing Secretary and defeated 2020 presidential candidate Julian Castro told MSNBC, ‘There has been a lot of oxygen spent blaming the progressives, suggesting that perhaps our best bet is always a centrist candidate. I think that we need to rethink that.’
President Joe Biden had predicted a win for Terry McAuliffe in Virginia
‘What happens in Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on,’ she said,’ said Vice President Kamala Harris
Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who recently announced he was forming a new party called Forward, wrote that the Democratic candidate was not the problem.
‘Democrats will try to pin this on McAuliffe but the dynamics in VA will play out all over the country unless something very dramatic changes in the next number of months,’ he tweeted.
Former President Biden himself had predicted ‘We’re going to win’ just hours before the results came in. He spoke about the terrain McAuliffe had to overcome – although his statement could also apply to the next congressional elections in 2022.
‘We all knew from the beginning it’s gonna be a tight race. The off year is always unpredictable,’ he said. Biden’s own approval ratings have taken a dip in recent weeks and months, placing a burden on McAuliffe.
The Republican National Committee was already making hay Tuesday night of video of Vice President Kamala Harris from her October rally for McAuliffe: ‘What happens in Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on,’ she said.
Republicans played up VP Kamala Harris’ prior comments on the importance of the state
Former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang and failed mayoral candidate called for ‘dramatic changes’
Republican Glenn Youngkin (left) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe (right) continued to campaign on Tuesday after a full day of cross-state rallies on Monday
McAuliffe had urged Congress to act on stalled budget legislation – something lawmakers weren’t able to do amid factional splits and a refusal by centrist Sens. Joe Manchin and Kystren Sinema to get behind a $1.75 trillion deal.
Even if it wasn’t a major factor in the Virginia race, it wasn’t immediately clear if the Virginia results would encourage holdouts to double down on their reservations – or see the risks of not giving lawmakers a clear platform to run on.
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said Tuesday there was no ‘hurry’ to act on the president’s top priority.
The prospect of potential future losses, even if only on the surface, can have an impact on candidate recruitment, retirements, and fundraising in ways that can become self-fulfilling.