Death rates for over-65s return to normal after successful Covid vaccine rollout

Death rates for over-65s in England and Wales have dipped below pre-pandemic levels thanks to the success of the Covid vaccine rollout, data revealed today.

Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IfoA) figures show the mortality rate in people aged 65-85 in September was 0.66 per cent lower than average. In over-85s it was even lower at 1.7 per cent below levels seen during the same month over the past 10 years.

But the data suggests a ‘two-tier’ pandemic may be starting to appear, with deaths in September — before cases began to kick off — at 7.5 per cent above normal levels in adults aged 45-64.

Experts claimed the low rates seen in the elderly are proof that vaccines have helped to stop serious disease from taking hold. 

They said the spike in deaths seen during the darkest days of the second wave in January has now been offset because those who were most vulnerable are likely to have died in the winter, with the majority of over-65s who survived the peak now protected.

Cobus Daneel, chairman of the IFoA’s continuous mortality investigation (CMI) mortality projections committee, said vaccinating ‘the more vulnerable first undoubtedly saved more lives overall and reduced strain on the NHS’.

And previous studies suggest excess deaths from diseases other than Covid have increased through the pandemic — which may in part explain the comparative rise in mortality in under-65s. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 4,635 of the 9,619 excess deaths (48 per cent) across all age groups in England and Wales since July were not related to Covid.

It comes after an Italian study found the average age of people dying with Covid after vaccination was 85 — but they usually had at least five underlying illnesses.

Analysis carried out by the Italian National Health Institute (ISS) looked at deaths from February 1 to October 5, finding the average age of death with Covid in the unvaccinated was 78. 

Pressure is building on No10 to speed up its booster programme to prevent spiking cases in younger age groups reaching the elderly, whose immunity from vaccines earlier in the year may be beginning to wain.

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair today demanded the Government sets concrete targets to speed the drive up to jab 500,000 a day. It’s currently only reaching about 200,000. Discussing the issue on Sky News, he said ministers need to urgently increase capacity and rope in more pharmacies. 

Graph shows: The mortality rates indifferent age groups in 2020 (green line) and 2021 (purple line) over the year compared to a baseline average in 2011 to 2020 before the pandemic. 2021 data goes up to October 1

Graph shows: The mortality rates indifferent age groups in 2020 (green line) and 2021 (purple line) over the year compared to a baseline average in 2011 to 2020 before the pandemic. 2021 data goes up to October 1

The current disparity in mortality rates compared to pre-pandemic levels between over-65s and under-65s comes despite the elderly feeling the brunt of the Covid crisis in terms of the number of people dying from the virus. Graph shows:

The current disparity in mortality rates compared to pre-pandemic levels between over-65s and under-65s comes despite the elderly feeling the brunt of the Covid crisis in terms of the number of people dying from the virus. Graph shows: 

Covid case growth rates are slowing down quickest in over-85s, data shows 

Britain may already be beginning to reap the benefits of its Covid booster vaccine drive, according to official data that will pile more pressure on ministers to accelerate the sluggish programme in the face of rising cases and the new Delta variant.

Over-85s — who were among the first in line for their top-ups — have seen the biggest slowdown in the growth of cases, in what scientists believe is the ‘early signs’ of the revaccination campaign kicking in. 

Experts told MailOnline that the country will really start to see the rewards of the drive over the coming weeks, as millions more get the crucial jab which tops up their immunity.  

NHS bosses are already facing calls to urgently speed up the programme, with up to 5million people eligible for a third dose yet to receive it. 

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair today demanded the Government sets concrete targets to speed the drive up to jab 500,000 a day. It’s currently only reaching about 200,000. Discussing the issue on Sky News, he said ministers need to urgently increase capacity and rope in more pharmacies.  

The slow progress has led to finger pointing among officials, with the NHS blaming a lack of urgency among the public and insisting there are more than enough doctors, nurses and jabs available. 

But sources close to the booster drive told MailOnline capacity was the main issue, with nearly a third fewer mass vaccination hubs in operation now compared to during the peak of the initial vaccine effort in spring. And top GPs yesterday complained they were too overworked to help accelerate Britain’s sluggish Covid booster drive.

Meanwhile, the chairman of the National Care Association today warned healthcare staff are giving flu jabs to care home residents, but don’t have enough booster jabs to administer.

Booster doses started being dished out last month as part of the Government’s winter plan to manage the spread of the pandemic.

The IfoA data shows the mortality rate in over-85s soared to nearly nine per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels at the height of the Covid crisis last December.

It was similarly high in people aged 75 to 84 and those aged 65 to 74, which peaked at 6.69 per cent and 4.77 per cent above average respectively.

But comparative mortality rates have plummeted this year since the introduction of Covid vaccines, with the rate in over-85s dipping more than two per cent below average in August.

The same trend cannot be said for the middle aged, however, who last month had comparable mortality rates for the time of year to those seen at the height of the pandemic.

Rates in people aged 45 to 64 rose to eight per cent above average on the final day of September (8.04 per cent), the latest date data is available for.

This was only slightly less than the rate in December last year, which peaked at 8.78 per cent above average on December 31.

More surprisingly still, the comparative rate in those aged 15 to 44 — normally considered least vulnerable to the virus — has been steadily climbing since the start of the year.

The rate was 8.01 per cent the average for 2011 to 2020, compared to a peak of just 3.54 per cent above average in December last year. 

Mr Daneel told The Daily Telegraph vaccines have helped keep over-65s’ mortality rate ‘well below’ the average for this time of year.

He said: ‘We’ve seen a two-tiered effect. In the oldest population, mortality rates from other causes are well below what we would normally expect at that time of year

‘This could be some mortality displacement, where deaths we would have expected to see in this period have been accelerated to the first wave. 

‘Remarkably, that is not the case for the under-65s, who have seen mortality increase still further this year.

‘The main source of that increase was the second wave that we experienced at the start of 2021, and we think that may be due to the timing of the vaccination programme, the older people first, followed by the younger people after that.’

The current disparity in mortality rates compared to pre-pandemic levels between over-65s and under-65s comes despite the elderly feeling the brunt of the Covid crisis in terms of the number of people dying from the virus.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows in total 65,813 people aged 85 and over have died from Covid since the start of 2020.

This was higher than those aged 75 to 84 (50,650), 65 to 74 (25,678) and more than three times the level seen in those aged 45 to 64 (17,420). Just over 2,000 people have died aged 15 to 44.

Separate data from the ISS shows a similar story in terms of who is most likely to die with the virus among fully vaccinated people.

The graph shows the week-on-week percentage change in the seven-day rolling rate among different age groups. Among the over-90s (dark blue line), week-on-week growth peaked at 35.2 per cent on October 11, before falling by 24.4 per cent to just 10 per cent by October 14. Weekly growth also fell quickly last week among those aged 85 to 90 (green line) — by 11.5 per cent in the last three days —and among 80 to 84-year-olds — by 10.3 per cent

The graph shows the week-on-week percentage change in the seven-day rolling rate among different age groups. Among the over-90s (dark blue line), week-on-week growth peaked at 35.2 per cent on October 11, before falling by 24.4 per cent to just 10 per cent by October 14. Weekly growth also fell quickly last week among those aged 85 to 90 (green line) — by 11.5 per cent in the last three days —and among 80 to 84-year-olds — by 10.3 per cent

Graph shows the number of booster jabs that have been administered each day (orange bars) the cumulative booster doses given in October (red line) and the cumulative, compared to the rollout of second doses that were dished out in April (blue line)

Graph shows the number of booster jabs that have been administered each day (orange bars) the cumulative booster doses given in October (red line) and the cumulative, compared to the rollout of second doses that were dished out in April (blue line)

The study showed that of the 38,096 Covid deaths in Italy between February 1 and October 5, 33,620 were in unvaccinated people, 2,130 were in those freshly jabbed and therefore without antibodies, and 1,440 were fully vaccinated.

It found the average age of death among vaccinated people (85) was higher than in unvaccinated (78) but elderly in both cases. 

Those dying despite vaccination tended to have more underlying illnesses — five — than the average of four in those without a jab.

The most common underlying illnesses in vaccinated deaths were heart problems, dementia and cancer.

The authors said: ‘The results presented here clearly indicate that people who died after completing the vaccination course have a high level of clinical complexity, significantly higher than people who could not benefit because they haven’t started the vaccination course.

‘It is possible to hypothesise that very elderly patients with numerous diseases may have a reduced immune response and therefore be susceptible  to SARS-CoV-2 infection and its complications despite having been vaccinated.

‘These very fragile persons with reduced immune response are those who benefit most from a broad vaccination coverage of the entire population as this would further reduce the risk of infection.’ 

source: dailymail.co.uk