According to professor Tim Spector, lead scientist on the ZOE COVID Study, vaccine effectiveness for the elderly and healthcare workers – those within the first wave of vaccinations – could drop to below 50 percent by Christmas. Although his forecast is a worst-case scenario, he warned the Government must make plans for vaccine boosters. Without vaccine boosters, high levels of infection combined with a highly transmissible variant could lead to a sharp rise in deaths and hospital admissions.
Professor Spector added: “While vaccines are working well against the Delta variant for the first few months and reducing severe disease, looking at over one million vaccinated ZOE loggers, effectiveness appears to be waning, which could explain recent breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people.
“In my opinion, a reasonable worst-case scenario could see protection below 50 percent for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter.
“If high levels of infection in the UK, driven by loosened social restrictions and a highly transmissible variant, this scenario could mean increased hospitalisations and deaths.
“We urgently need to make plans for vaccine boosters, and based on vaccine resources, decide if a strategy to vaccinate children is sensible if our aim is to reduce deaths and hospital admissions.
“Waning protection is to be expected and is not a reason to not get vaccinated.
“Vaccines still provide high levels of protection for the majority of the population, especially against the Delta variant, so we still need as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated.”
Professor Spector’s forecast was based on finding from the study’s analysis of vaccine effectiveness in the first wave of those who received a jab.
According to the analysis, the Pfizer vaccine’s protection against infection a month after the second dose was 88 percent.
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Vaccine were rolled out to those most vulnerable and the elderly at the beginning of the year.
By rapidly rolling out the vaccine on an initial one-shot policy, the UK managed to reduce infections which surged over January due to the Alpha variant.
However, with the effectiveness of the drug now waning, it is unsure if the Government will proceed with a plan to roll out booster jabs across the country in the autumn and winter.
Speaking today, professor Adam Finn of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) claimed booster jabs could be vital in the following months.
He told the Today Programme: “I think the Zoe study, and a couple of other studies we recently had, do show the beginnings of a drop off of protection against asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic disease.
“But other studies are showing maintenance of good protection against serious illness and hospitalisation.
“So that’s encouraging actually that people who’ve had two doses are still very much well protected against serious illness, which is our main objective.
“But we do need to watch out very carefully to see if this waning begins to translate into the occurrence of more severe cases because then boosters will be needed.”
The JCVI is expected to make an announcement on booster jabs this month.