Football's coming home? England's Euro 2020 hopes rated as Germany tie set up – Big Debate

England will face Germany in the last 16 of Euro 2020 next week – and the Three Lions now know their path to glory if they are to win a first trophy since 1966. In our latest Big Debate, the Express Sport team assess the Three Lions’ prospects of international glory this summer as Gareth Southgate and co. look to get long-awaited revenge for Euro 1996.

Simon Head

If we’re judging England’s chances solely on their performances so far at Euro 2020, it’s hard to say that it will be ‘Coming Home’ for the Three Lions this summer. But, as we all know, tournament football isn’t about how you start, it’s about how you finish. 

England started slowly in Italia 90 – indeed, there were calls to ‘bring them home’ after the Republic of Ireland game – and Euro 96 started with an off-key 1-1 draw with Switzerland. Even our victorious 1966 World Cup side started slowly.

But we’re at the business end of the tournament now, where it’s time for the continent’s big guns to lay their cards on the table and see who has the best hand. And, on paper, England have plenty to be confident about.

Gareth Southgate’s squad is packed with young, vibrant attacking talent, and possesses one of Europe’s top finishers. But he’s not let his players off the leash yet. Now we’re in the knockout stages, it’s time he should.

In all of our group performances there’s been an element of a safety-first mentality. Full-backs known for bombing on have been turning back and playing square, while our overall build-up play has been pretty slow. That can’t continue against Germany on Tuesday night. 

With the games being played in the late afternoon and evening from now on, the temperatures should be more favourable to playing at a higher tempo, and when England play at pace, they can be contenders. 

It’s “win or go home” time, and Southgate needs to unleash his stars against Germany on Tuesday. After the group stages, few will be hugely enthused about our chances. But, if we wake up on Wednesday morning with England still in the tournament, the country will start to believe.

Sam Smith

Gareth Southgate knows that positive pragmatism is key to a successful tournament campaign. England will not be the most exciting team at Euro 2020 but that will be a necessary sacrifice if they advance to the latter stages.

The Three Lions head coach was part of four tournament squads as a player. As a manager, he guided the U21s to Toulon success in 2017 and is now into his second tournament with the senior side. How he navigated England to a World Cup semi-final in 2018, despite a generous draw, was evidence of his knockout competition experience.

When judging England’s campaign so far, it should be considered that no team has been entirely convincing. Southgate’s side have largely played well – Scotland aside – and much of the criticism has been unfair. Matches are tense and often low-scoring.  

Nations take a while to get up to speed, particularly after such a gruelling club season, and the group stages should effectively be considered as glorified warm-up friendlies for the real thing.

The players ignoring exterior excitement over the history between England and Germany will be important. They seemed distracted and even hindered by the furore of the Scotland fixture.

A famous win over the Germans, which is a possibility given that they don’t look as strong as previous tournaments, sets up a clear path to the final. Southgate’s knowhow will be crucial. 

Ryan Taylor

It’s not been pretty but you can’t hide away from the fact England are yet to concede at Euro 2020.

Goals win you games but clean sheets win your tournaments.

Germany are not to be feared but Gareth Southgate’s team selection will prove key. Does he match their 3-4-2-1 or stick with the 4-2-3-1?

Alex Turk

England’s Euro 2020 so far has been received far less positively than it should have done. Yes, more goals would’ve added entertainment, but going into the knockout stages unbeaten with no goals conceded is a great start to the campaign.

Germany in the last-16, then. Probably the first real test Gareth Southgate’s side will have faced in both Euro 2020 qualifying and the group stage. A win against Joachim Low’s men would boost confidence and belief that football could actually ‘come home’ this summer.

This isn’t the German side of old, but there are still threats present throughout the team, threats made very clear in their recent rout over Portugal. The main battle will go down on the flanks, with Joshua Kimmich and Robin Gosens Germany’s main creators.

I think England will have enough to get past their old foes this year, though. Should they do that, it will most likely be Sweden and the Netherlands en route to the final. Sweden have been tough customers so far and were worthy of their place as Group E winners, but they must be considered favourable opposition.

The Netherlands are no joke, either, which England learned in the 2019 Nations League semi-finals. However, having 60,000 fans present at Wembley would help roar the Three Lions to victory and go one step away from European Championship glory.

The final would, naturally, provide England’s toughest test. In my likely popular opinion, it will be Italy or France awaiting at that stage. England would go in as the underdogs, but anything can happen in a cup final and the outcome is just too tough to call right now.

Simply put, Harry Kane and co. defeat the Germans on Tuesday and I think we’ll be seeing them make up the final on July 11. If they can eventually bring football home remains to be seen… for now.

Charlie Malam

Germany. Then Sweden or Ukraine. Then Netherlands, Czech Republic, Wales or Denmark. That’s about as favourable a run to the Euro 2020 final as England might have hoped for, given it means they cannot face France, Italy, Portugal or Belgium until the July 11 showpiece.

Don’t be fooled, though, it will still take an enormous amount of effort to make that final.

Gareth Southgate and co. must continue to do what they did well defensively in the group stages in the knockout rounds but they need to be sharper in the final third, too, if they are to advance to the last match. Against the top nations is when England’s cutting edge will be called into question and they must be more clinical. 

It’s a finely balanced game against Germany, although Joachim Low’s side have arguably shown greater weaknesses this summer. They look susceptible defensively having leaked two to both Portugal and Hungary and if England can start strong and with a high tempo, backed by a vociferous 40,000-strong Wembley crowd, it’s no question they have the talent to put Die Mannschaft to the sword.

Yet it’s also so easy to see it being a tight and tense affair which goes all the way to extra time or even penalties, and there’s another narrative lying in wait which sees Kai Havertz or Timo Werner – ribbed throughout the recent Premier League season when they had some struggles at Chelsea – step up to kill England’s dreams.

Still, if they can get beyond the reigning world champions, England are big favourites in the quarter-finals, and again probably the favourites in the semis even if they face Netherlands. Get to that final four and regardless of the manner of the performances, the country can dare to dream.

It might be a profitable few weeks for David Baddiel, Frank Skinner and The Lightning Seeds.

Matthew Dunn

In the mayhem of Wednesday night’s Group F action, it was hard to tell if France, Germany, Portugal and Hungary were trying to avoid England or play us.

As it is Germany inevitably filled the berth – the match-up that Gareth Southgate’s managerial career has been building up to ever since he swapped fluffing penalties for managing the national team.

Felix Keith

It’s been an odd group stage for England, who have managed to both underwhelm and make confident, steady progress simultaneously. 

Despite possessing an array of attacking talents, there hasn’t been much to get excited about – and yet Gareth Southgate’s side have topped the group without conceding.

I was one of those up in arms after the Scotland stalemate, but now – with the benefit of the last-16 draw in front of me – I am feeling much more positive.

England have kept five straight clean sheets over the last three weeks. They have conceded just once in their last 11 games. The style of play may not be exciting, but it is undeniably efficient and effective.

Germany are no longer a ruthless mechanical winning machine. There is little fluency in their possession or clarity in game plan. Their progression against Hungary stemmed from a late goal crafted through pure desperation. 

Mats Hummels is a rusting oil tanker waiting to be sunk by England’s third-man runs from midfield, pace and direct passing. Once Germany are out of the way the friendlier side of the draw is there to be enjoyed.