France
So far, so good. We know about their strength in depth and their skill levels but we’re seeing a team who look fit, hungry and who believe they can win wherever they are playing. That is an incredible asset. Against Ireland they showed a great maturity for a young team and were able to wrestle back momentum whenever it threatened to slip away. In attack, they can be clinical – even if they left a couple of chances out there against Ireland – and they have an ability to go from first gear to fifth in the space of an offload. That’s all it takes to light the touchpaper and it is so infectious, giving everyone in the side energy. On top of that, it feels as though they have the same desire and enthusiasm for defending as they do for attacking. That is often a key barometer for how together a team is, and that will stand them in good stead while the head coach, Fabien Galthié, is in isolation with Covid-19. His temporary absence will be disruptive but more so for the coaches than the players, in my view. It would be different if it was the start of the tournament but if it was going to happen, a fallow week was the best time for it.
Wales
Wales find themselves in an incredible position, in the hunt for a grand slam, considering only a few weeks ago all the talk was of pressure on Wayne Pivac and how a clause to terminate his contract might be activated after this championship. What I’ve been impressed with most is how they’ve gone back to basics. At their best they are such a hard-working side and horrible for any opponent to come up against in an arm-wrestle. Look at the numbers: Alun Wyn Jones made 20 tackles inside an hour against Ireland and Justin Tipuric finished with 29. Gethin Jenkins has obviously added a bit of bite back into their defence and they also have a lethal weapon in Louis Rees-Zammit. He’s a deadly finisher – there are not many players who have a sixth gear but he has it. It’s almost a ‘get out of jail free’ card to give him the ball. He’s playing on instinct and not overthinking things. Like France I think Wales will have welcomed the fallow week, a chance to cool the jets and get some players back from injury before hosting England.
England
My biggest frustration with England so far is that for whatever reason the execution has not been there. They had plenty of the ball and plenty of opportunities against Italy but lacked the kind of accuracy they will need if they are going to win the next three matches. There just isn’t the crispness or the clinical edge I would expect. Look at the way Rees-Zammit is high on confidence at the moment: England are just lacking that a little and I have Wales as favourites for the match in Cardiff a week on Saturday. That means England’s mindset has to be right. Yes, they are a very good team at applying pressure through kicking and very hard to beat if they get ahead on the scoreboard, but I don’t think that can be England’s approach from the first minute. It can’t be a “we have to stop them” mindset, it has to be “they have to stop us”. It’s a minor shift in mentality but a significant one and essentially means that England need to be the aggressors from the start.
Scotland
Perhaps Scotland are the team who least wanted this fallow week, given how deflated they would have been after losing to Wales. It’s not often I can say this but I was genuinely gutted for Scotland last weekend. One huge step forward in beating England has been followed by a setback and should they lose to France and Ireland it will be a typically infuriating tournament for them. They have made memories that will last for a long time by winning at Twickenham but will be ultimately judged on their final position in the table. It means their round-four match against Ireland looks like a campaign-defining contest for them. They have so much potential for growth in the squad, to become a real northern hemisphere powerhouse, and defeating Ireland would mean it will have been a positive tournament for Scotland.
Ireland
Round four will be similarly defining for Ireland. The margins have been fine for Andy Farrell’s side but ultimately they have no wins from two matches and that is not up to the standard they expect. Without Peter O’Mahony’s red card they would probably have beaten Wales, and if Jamie Lowe’s try was awarded against France they may have won that match too, but those are the small percentages we are dealing with and what will frustrate Farrell more is how they just haven’t quite clicked in attack. There were better signs against France and I don’t foresee anything other than a comfortable win against Italy next up, which leads into that match at Murrayfield. With England hosting France that same weekend as well, it looks like the definitive round of the tournament.
Italy
If I’m being kind to Italy then there are some signs of progress visible. Clearly they have some promising youngsters, particularly in the backs, and to their credit they are trying to play some attractive rugby. If they were losing heavily every match and just box-kicking all game then the arguments against them being in the competition would be stronger. Once again though, they are not going to win a match in the championship, and while it is all well and good making statements about planning for the 2023 World Cup, they are in a pool with France and New Zealand. I don’t know if the gap in quality is getting bigger, but it certainly isn’t reducing.