Talking Horses: Tiger Roll guessing game continues for Grand National

“We’ve had our say, the handicapper has had his say and we’ll make our decision in due course,” was the nearest thing to a reaction from Tiger Roll’s owner, Michael O’Leary, on Tuesday after the dual Grand National winner was set to carry 11st 9lb, 1lb below top weight, if he attempts a record-equalling third success at Aintree on 10 April. This year’s race revolves around him, but uncertainty about whether Tiger Roll will even be there is likely to continue for several weeks yet.

The comment, from Eddie O’Leary, racing manager for his brother’s Gigginstown Stud, came after Tiger Roll was rated on 166 for this year’s National, 7lb higher than for his second win in 2019 and well above the mark “in the 150s” that Michael O’Leary has recently suggested might be required to see him line up. At the same time, though, it is 5lb below Tiger Roll’s rating when he last ran in a British handicap, in a cross-country race at Cheltenham in November, and as low as Martin Greenwood, the handicapper, could realistically go given the 11-year-old’s previous form around Aintree.

Racing fans eager to see Tiger Roll head to Liverpool in April may take it as a positive that Eddie O’Leary did not add to the criticism of Tiger Roll’s current rating in recent weeks.

To run in another National, though, Tiger Roll will need to come through one, and possibly two, races beforehand. “We’ll let him go to Cheltenham [for the Cross Country Chase in March] and we’ll see what happens there,” Eddie O’Leary said. “He’s [also] in the Boyne Hurdle [at Navan on Sunday] although I’d say the ground could be too heavy for him.”

O’Leary also put the preoccupation with Tiger Roll’s run into context, in the midst of the ongoing pandemic which forced the cancellation of last year’s Grand National. “We’ve 10 horses in there and we’ll set ourselves as they go on,” he said. “Go back to the loss of Rose Paterson [Aintree’s former chair, who died in August] this year, Rose is a bigger loss to Aintree than Tiger Roll or any other horse could be. She’s a desperate loss to Aintree. Tiger Roll, it doesn’t matter [and] we’ll make our own decision in time.”

If Tiger Roll does show enough at Cheltenham to persuade O’Leary to send him to Aintree for a tilt at history, he will almost certainly set off as the clear favourite. Amid the uncertainty over whether he will line up, though, Jonjo O’Neill’s Cloth Cap, an impressive front-running winner of the Ladbrokes Trophy in November, is the early favourite at 16-1, with Tiger Roll, Kimberlite Candy and Burrows Saint next in the list on 20-1.

Quick Guide

Greg Wood’s Wednesday tips

Show

Wetherby 12.30 Ballybeg 1.05 Coconut Splash 1.35 Sawpit Sienna 2.05 Maypole Class (nb) 2.40 Nightboattoclyro (nap) 3.12 Destinee Royale 3.42 Pressure Sensitive

Wolverhampton 1.15 Heptathlete 1.45 Noble Queen 2.15 Rain Gauge 2.50 Tacora 3.20 Album 3.50 The Rutland Rebel 4.20 Dylan’s Lad 4.50 Rockesbury

Hereford 1.55 Herbiers 2.30 Equus Dreamer 3.05 Favori De Sivola 3.35 Pottlereaghexpress 4.05 Aurelia Or 4.35 Frisco Bay 5.05 Hartnoll Hero

Kempton 4.15 Regent 4.45 Raging Rascal 5.15 Brian The Snail 5.45 Inclyne 6.20 Lequinto 6.50 Luna Wish 7.20 Run After Genesis 7.50 Owhatanight 8.20 Vitesse Du Son

“I’m training him for the race and I will be keen to run him,” Gordon Elliott, Tiger Roll’s trainer, said on Tuesday. “It will be disappointing for everyone if he doesn’t turn up but as you know, he [O’Leary] makes the decisions.”

Grand National tipping, by Greg Wood

The daunting annual task of sifting through weights and prices after the publication of the Grand National handicap is further complicated this year by the uncertainty over whether Tiger Roll will be in the field on 10 April.

If he runs, he is an obvious favourite, and Tuesday’s price of 20-1 will seem ridiculously generous. For the moment, though, Tiger Roll is not the Grand National favourite for the first time since his win in the race in 2018. Instead, Cloth Cap, the Ladbrokes Trophy winner, heads the list at a top-price of 16-1, and it is not difficult to see why.

Cloth Cap’s bold jumping under an attacking ride at Newbury had Aintree stamped all over it, and he also proved his stamina when third in the Scottish National in 2019. He has been raised 12lb for a 10-length win in November, however, and at nine years of age, may not have the scope for improvement of some younger opponents.

There are also bigger prices on offer about runners with form at extended trips, including Secret Reprieve and Potters Corner, the last two winners of the Welsh National, and Burrows Saint, who took the Irish Grand National in April 2019.

The last seven-year-old Grand National winner was Bogskar in 1940, so this could be a year too early for Secret Reprieve. Both Potters Corner (25-1) and Burrows Saint (20-1) look backable at current odds, though, with marginal preference for the latter.

His Irish National win was a remarkable performance for a six-year-old and Burrows Saint still holds an entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, though he is more likely to have a National prep at Fairyhouse later this month.

He has an excellent racing weight of 10st 13lb, comes to himself in the spring and has been aimed at Aintree “for 24 months” according to Willie Mullins, his trainer.

Cheltenham Festival stat of the day, by Paul Ferguson

Willie Mullins has an enviable record in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, in particular with French-bred mares. Nine of the 13 runnings have been won by French-breds, from just 21% representation, so they are clearly over-performing, as they also do in the Dawn Run Mares’ Novice Hurdle. This statistic affirms the chance of the favourite, the French-bred, Mullins-trained Concertista, winner of last year’s Dawn Run. Honeysuckle, winner of last year’s Mares’ Hurdle, is expected to contest the Champion Hurdle this time.

The Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2021, written by Paul Ferguson, is published on 26 February, priced £15.95. Talking Horses readers can obtain a £4 discount by using the promotion code ‘GDN21’ when placing an order.

source: theguardian.com