WASHINGTON — The Republican civil war ended on Feb. 13, 2021. Donald Trump won.
The decision by most GOP senators to acquit Trump in the 57-43 vote on charges of incitement of insurrection on the Capitol demonstrates that there is little appetite in the party to denounce the former president or his brand of politics. That comes despite Trump’s alleged role in the deadly Jan. 6 siege that endangered their safety and that of others, in a failed attempt to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election.
While the Senate achieved a majority of votes to convict Trump, with seven Republicans joining all 50 Democrats, it fell short of the two-thirds majority of 67 votes required under the Constitution for the vote to convict to pass.
The impacts are likely to reverberate in American politics for years. Here’s how it affects the relevant parties:
Donald Trump
The most direct impact of the acquittal is that it keeps the door open for Trump to run for president again in 2024. He will turn 78 that year, raising questions about whether he will pursue another vigorous campaign. But even if he doesn’t, the vote cements his status as a kingmaker with the influence to elevate his favored politicians in GOP primaries and tarnish his adversaries.
Democratic impeachment managers forced senators to relive the horrors of the Capitol riot. Immediately after it happened, it was an open question whether Trump’s party would renounce him for it and seek to move in a different direction. That question was settled on Saturday.
“He’s a strong force in the party. There’s no doubt about that,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., told NBC News.
The consensus of Senate Republican leadership in favor of acquittal sends a signal to aspiring officeholders, donors and activists: They are unlikely to build or support political infrastructure to elevate GOP candidates who stand against the ex-president.
During Trump’s presidency, several Republicans who clashed with him left the party, including former Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, while others pulled the plug on their political careers, like Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona. The dynamics that exiled them were entrenched by Trump’s acquittal.
Republicans
The fact that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and his entire leadership team voted to reject the charges approved by the House signifies that there won’t be much of a fight in the party to renounce Trumpism.
That’s a gamble: Since Trump officially entered politics as a candidate, the GOP has seen high turnout when he’s on the ballot, in 2016 and 2020, and suffered major defeats when he is not, in 2018 and the Georgia Senate runoffs last month.
Many Republicans, including McConnell, were leery of defending Trump’s behavior and justified their vote by arguing that the trial of a former president is unconstitutional. They were also facing heavy pressure from GOP voters in their states, who largely remain in the ex-president’s corner and made clear they expect the same of their party leaders.
The Republican senators voted to convict Trump were Mitt Romney of Utah, the only Republican who voted to convict him last year in the first impeachment trial; Susan Collins of Maine; Lisa Murkowski of Alaska; Ben Sasse of Nebraska; Bill Cassidy of Louisiana; Richard Burr of North Carolina; and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.
Their backgrounds: Romney is the party’s 2012 presidential nominee; Collins and Murkowski have independent brands as the two most moderate Republicans; Sasse is a Trump critic who bit his tongue for most of his presidency until he was renominated for his seat last summer; Toomey and Burr are retiring after the 2021-2022 congressional session, while Cassidy doesn’t face voters again until 2026.
Democrats
What did Democrats achieve? They lost the final vote, and they whiffed on an 11th-hour motion for witnesses, but they secured the most bipartisan impeachment in House history. The managers compelled Trump’s defense team and many Republicans to concede they made a strong case — McConnell called his decision to acquit a “close call.”
In the Senate, the seven Republican votes to convict a president of their own party were higher than the one in Trump’s 2020 trial and the zero Democrats who voted in 1999 to convict Bill Clinton.
Surveys indicate the Democrats won the battle for public opinion, as most Americans said they wanted Trump to be barred from holding office again. For better or for worse, the trial result assures that their opposition will continue to be influenced by Trump.
Some Democrats were shocked at the GOP’s desire to stand behind Trump.
“I’m just incredulous,” Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, told reporters before the vote on Friday. “Incredulous, except I’ve watched, I’ve watched my spineless colleagues walk around with fear in their eyes for four years. And so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised.”
