Covid England and Wales: ONS data shows where second wave hit hardest

More than half of local authorities in England and Wales were hit harder by the pandemic in January than during the peak of the first wave, MailOnline can reveal. 

Analysis of Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows 54 per cent — 182 out of 336 — registered more Covid deaths in the first four weeks of this year than between March 28 and April 24 last year. 

East Sussex suffered the biggest hit, with three of its five local councils among the top ten worst affected. These included Hastings, where Covid fatalities surged 19-fold, and Eastbourne, where they leapt four-fold.

Norfolk faced the second-biggest toll after two of its seven councils were also on the list, with Norwich seeing Covid deaths spiral eight-fold, and Broadland recording a three-fold spike. 

Experts said the figures painted a picture the ‘huge difference’ in how the virus struck across England and Wales, adding it appeared some places had ‘got off lightly’ in the first wave only to be ravaged by the second.  

It comes as Tories savaged Matt Hancock over a ‘forever lockdown’ after the Health Secretary warned that border restrictions may need to stay until autumn — despite figures showing the UK’s epidemic is firmly in retreat. 

Lockdown-sceptic backbenchers took aim at Mr Hancock when he unveiled the latest brutal squeeze aimed at preventing mutant coronavirus strains getting into the country. As of Monday travellers from high-risk ‘red list’ countries will be forced to spend 10 days in ‘quarantine hotels’, and all arrivals must test negative three times.

Meanwhile, the Department of Health announced 12,364 more coronavirus cases and 1,052 deaths in the past 24 hours as the winter wave continues to shrink because of lockdown.

Both figures have dropped by more than a quarter compared to last week, with today’s infections down 26.6 per cent on last Tuesday’s figure and deaths by 27.4 per cent.

WHICH AREAS WERE WORST HIT DURING THE SECOND WAVE? 

Hastings

Norwich

Rother

Ceredigion

Arun

Wrexham

Eastbourne

Ribble Valley

Broadland

West Lindsey 

116

93

147

29

159

115

157

48

135

49 

The first wave was dated for four weeks from March 28 to April 24, after England’s first lockdown was declared. The second wave was dated for four weeks from January 2 to 29, after England’s third lockdown was declared.

Hastings and Norwich suffered the biggest hits from the second wave, after Covid deaths in these areas jumped from six to 116 fatalities and 10 to 93, respectively.

Rother, in East Sussex, faced the third worst impact after Covid deaths rose from 19 to 147.

It was followed by Ceredigion, in Wales, where they jumped from four to 29; Arun, in West Sussex, where they increased from 31 to 159; and Wrexham, also in Wales, where they rose from 23 to 115. 

Of the 56 local authorities where Covid deaths in the second wave were at least double that in the first, 15 were in the South East and 16 were in the East.

Scientists say this regional disparity is likely to be down to the rapid spread of the highly-infectious Kent variant, which caused havoc in the run-up to Christmas.

It carries a key mutation — N501Y — which is thought to allow the mutant virus to jump between humans easier, sparking more infections. 

These will inevitably lead to more Covid deaths because more people will catch the virus and — with a death rate of one per cent in all those infected — a higher number will sadly die from the disease.

Top Government scientists have also warned the strain — dubbed B.1.1.7. — is slightly more deadly.

Despite the mutant variant causing cases to drastically shoot up in London in December, only one borough in the capital — Kingston-upon-Thames — saw twice as many deaths in January than during the darkest days of last spring. 

It can take several weeks for infected patients to fall severely ill, meaning an increase in cases is not seen in death figures until several weeks later.

Academics said the smaller impact on the capital could be linked to higher levels of immunity, with studies showing more residents there caught the virus in the first wave and hence have some protection from it. 

But they added it may also be connected to the impact of the first wave on the city, which was hit hard in April.

The ten areas that suffered the biggest the most fatalities in the first wave were in the North of England, ONS data showed. 

Salford, in Greater Manchester, suffered the largest hit with fatalities four-fold higher at 207 in April compared to 45 in January. 

It was followed by Harrogate, where deaths were three-fold higher at 84 compared to 25. And Cheltenham, in the South West, where they were at 93 compared to 34.

WHICH AREAS WERE WORST HIT DURING THE FIRST WAVE?

Salford

Harrogate

Cheltenham

Craven

Trafford

West Lancashire

Gateshead

Leeds City

Sunderland

Stockport 

207

84

93

38

116

72

137

368

227

201 

The first wave was dated for four weeks from March 28 to April 24, after England’s first lockdown was declared. The second wave was dated for four weeks from January 2 to 29, after England’s third lockdown was declared. 

In Craven, North Yorkshire, deaths were also three-fold higher in the first wave at 38, compared to 14 in the first four weeks of January. 

As many as five of the top ten worst affected places in the first wave were in the North East and Yorkshire, with four in the North West and one in the South West.

It wasn’t clear why this was the case, although experts said the more infectious variant was not widespread in the North before the third lockdown was imposed.

Professor Kevin McConway, a statistician at the Open University, told MailOnline the figures revealed ‘huge differences’ in the peaks of the first and second waves across England and Wales.

‘The fact that there are quite a few local authorities that had far more deaths in January than last April, and none that had that pattern the other way round with far more deaths in April than January, relates to the spread of the disease across the country in the two peaks,’ he said. 

‘Last April, quite a few areas of England and Wales got off relatively lightly in terms of deaths. 

‘That particularly applied to Hastings and Norwich and Rother, but also to quite a lot of other places, particularly in the more rural parts of the country. 

‘Overall in the South and East of England, in places there that are far enough away from London, deaths tended to be low in the first wave. 

‘But in the current wave, the horrible disease has spread itself more widely and, to some extent, more evenly. 

‘The more infectious new variant made sure that numbers of deaths over large parts of southern and eastern England were considerably higher than last April, but deaths also remained high in several areas in other parts of the country where they had already been quite high last spring.’ 

The four weeks after January 2 were chosen for the second wave because these were just after England’s third national lockdown was declared on January 4.

And the four weeks from March 28 were chosen for the first wave because these were just after the first national lockdown was declared on March 23.

It comes after furious Tories savaged Matt Hancock over a ‘forever lockdown’ today after the Health Secretary warned border restrictions may need to stay until autumn — despite figures showing the UK’s epidemic is shrinking.

Lockdown-sceptic backbenchers took aim at Mr Hancock when he unveiled the latest brutal squeeze aimed at preventing mutant coronavirus strains getting into the country.

The Department of Health announced 12,364 more coronavirus cases and 1,052 deaths in the past 24 hours as the winter wave continues to shrink because of lockdown.

Both figures have dropped by more than a quarter compared to last week, with today’s infections down 26.6 per cent on last week’s figure and deaths by 27.4 per cent. The number of Covid patients in hospital has also fallen by a fifth in a week, with nearly 27,000 beds now taken up by Covid sufferers.

The DoH also revealed another 356,291 coronavirus jabs were administered yesterday, with 12.6million Brits having now received their first dose. With six days still to go, No10 is within touching distance of delivering on its target of injecting the 15million most vulnerable by February 15.

But hopes the world-beating vaccine roll-out will mean lockdown curbs can be significantly eased any time soon were shot down today by Mr Hancock, who unveiled the latest suite of border curbs, which he warned could last until the Autumn when booster vaccines will be available. 

source: dailymail.co.uk