Stimulus package vote this week? ‘The clock is ticking’

Americans could finally see some movement on a second economic relief bill this week, but whether or not it will come with a second stimulus check or if we’d have to wait until early 2021 remains to be seen. A bipartisan group of senators are expected to present their final $908 billion proposal early this week. Congress is also expected to vote to stop a Friday government shutdown and continuing negotiating through Dec. 18 on next year’s budget. 

The latest proposal is seen as a last-ditch effort to bring sorely needed economic aid like extra unemployment benefits and money for small businesses before protections lapse on Dec. 31, otherwise leaving tens of millions of Americans without any federal support for weeks, while hunger and evictions mount and COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths soar.

“With so many of these initiatives from the first CARES package running out as soon as the day after Christmas, it would be what I call stupidity on steroids if Congress doesn’t act,” Sen. Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia and member of the bipartisan group that wrote the proposal, said Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union.

Ultimately, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi both need to sign off on a bill. Pelosi endorsed the deal last week, though it is significantly smaller than the $2.2 trillion Heroes Act the House passed in October, and does not include a second stimulus check for up to $1,200. McConnell at first dismissed the $908 billion plan, but Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Republican from Louisiana, told Fox News Sunday this week that he is confident McConnell and President Donald Trump will agree to pass the proposal, though it allocates more money than McConnell’s $500 billion “skinny” bill. 

“This is not a stimulus bill. It is a relief bill. And it is something for the next three or four months to help those in greatest need,” Cassidy said. “There may be a stimulus check, but that would be part of a different piece of legislation.”

However, other members of Congress who support a second stimulus check for eligible Americans are not pleased that the bill does not include funding for those direct payments. Some, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Democrat from Vermont, have said they will not support the bill without the addition of stimulus checks. Some also object to language that would protect businesses and certain institutions from coronavirus-related lawsuits, a priority backed by Republicans.

“COVID relief needs to directly help everyday people. People need stimulus checks & UI,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat from New York, tweeted Dec. 3, referring to larger weekly unemployment insurance checks during the pandemic.

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican from Missouri, also said he’d oppose a package that doesn’t contain a stimulus check. 

“I’d want to see that included,” Hawley told NBC News last week. “I don’t know why we wouldn’t give assistance directly to families and individuals who need it. It’s fast — it’s as fast as anything else. I’m not sure why it’s controversial,” he added. “I’m a little baffled by it.” Hawley tweeted Nov. 4 that he’d “gladly work w/@AOC” to help working families.

President-elect Joe Biden has already called the $908 billion proposal a “down payment” on a larger, future stimulus package, stressing that the “immediately needed” relief for unemployed Americans, people facing eviction and people struggling to pay a mortgage has already been addressed in the Democrats’ $3 trillion Heroes Act passed May 15, which the House of Representatives revised down to $2.2 trillion on Oct. 1.

For now, Biden, Pelosi and other top Democrats support the end-of-year deal, albeit with some “improvements.” It’s unlikely that Pelosi and Biden will force the issue of a stimulus check, which could add over $270 billion to the final package — an increase of roughly 30% of the $908 billion bipartisan proposal.

“Those who want the direct stimulus checks, that will be something a President-elect Biden will grapple with,” Warner said. 

We also still don’t know if McConnell and other top Republicans will support the final version of the bill. 

“Everyone feels a sense of urgency. There is not a person on the Hill, I think, who doesn’t feel the urgency,” Rep. Josh Gottheimer, a Democrat from New Jersey who has been involved in the bipartisan group’s work, told the Washington Post Monday. “I think everybody recognizes the clock is ticking and it’s getting louder. I think that’s forcing resolution, and the good news is we’ve made a lot of progress.”

Here’s what we know about where negotiations stand right now and what could happen before the end of the year.

Read more: What Biden could do for stimulus if another bill doesn’t pass

When could a new stimulus bill come to a vote?

Here are some possible scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks and months, depending on which way the wind blows in Washington.

When could a stimulus bill or package pass?

House votes	Senate votes	President signs
Dec. 16	Dec. 17	Dec. 18
Feb. 1, 2021 (after inauguration)	Feb. 2	Feb. 3
Feb. 16 (Feb. 15 is President’s Day)	Feb. 16	Feb. 16
March 15	March 16	March 17

What could happen next with the stimulus bill?

A stimulus bill is completed before Jan. 20: An agreement is made, and the current House and Senate vote before the new Congress is seated in January. If Trump signs the rescue bill into law, aid would likely begin to go out within weeks, with certain groups receiving financial help before the end of 2020.

Negotiators agree on a stimulus deal, but it fails in either the House or Senate: In this situation, Democrats and Republicans could advance their own proposals that might pass in their majority chambers but fail (or fail to be considered) by the other. In this case, Congress might try again after Biden is sworn in as president.

A smaller bill could pass now, and a larger one could happen later: It’s possible that a subset of programs would get funded before Biden becomes president, for example unemployment aid or an extension of the eviction ban, with the new Congress revisiting other programs, like a second stimulus check, after his inauguration. As sitting president, Trump would need to sign any bill passed before Jan. 20 into law for it to take effect.

Talks once again fall apart until after Jan. 20: If partisan differences keep a bill from passing, it’s likely they’ll restart in some capacity after the inauguration in January. Here are some executive actions Biden could take immediately if a stimulus bill doesn’t pass by the time he’s sworn in as president.

If a bill does pass that includes a direct payment, here’s how quickly we think the IRS could send a second stimulus check.

Yes, the Democrats’ stimulus proposal is still key

On Oct. 1, the House of Representatives passed a revised Heroes Act that included a second stimulus check and additional benefits such as enhanced unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans. The House bill, endorsed primarily by Democrats, was not expected to advance through the Republican-controlled Senate, and indeed did not.

Although it is not law, this bill provides the foundation from which Pelosi is working now and might work from in the future, if another stimulus bill picks up steam after Biden’s inauguration in 2021. This revised Heroes Act has Biden’s support and could figure into future negotiations, depending on whether Georgia’s state runoff on Jan. 5 gives Democrats control of the Senate (Republicans currently maintain a two-seat lead).

Which elements do Republicans and Democrats agree on?

Proposals from both sides have included the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses, enhanced unemployment insurance, and another stimulus payment of up to $1,200 for individuals who meet the requirements. Although not every commonality would make it into a smaller bill, if that were to pass first, these measures are most likely to gain bipartisan support. The two sides also agree on more financial assistance for coronavirus testing and vaccine deployment.

Here are more details on the biggest points of contention between the White House, Republicans and Democrats.

For more information about stimulus checks, here’s how soon you might get your second stimulus check now, what you should do to speed up the delivery of a potential second check, and what to know about the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.