Stimulus package: Can a deal pass before 2020 ends? The real timeline to know

With 36 days until the end of 2020, the pressure is mounting for top US lawmakers to restart negotiations on the next stimulus package — one that could include a second stimulus check, extra unemployment money for job-seekers and crucial funding for small businesses. In reality, Congress has much less time than a month to debate, draft and vote on a new COVID-19 relief package.

A day ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the number of Americans who can’t afford food is skyrocketing, job loss is up and new coronavirus cases and deaths are soaring. Twenty million renters in the US are at risk of losing their homes after eviction protections end Dec. 31, according to The Aspen Institute.

“If something doesn’t get done in DC, I think we’re just going to see another wave of need and increased demand for food,” said Los Angeles Regional Food Bank CEO Michael Flood, according to CNBC.

Sharpening the urgency of approving more aid, a group of 127 bipartisan economists, including former President Barack Obama’s top economic advisor, published an open letter (PDF) on Tuesday, pressing Congress to usher in stimulus aid that is “big, immediate and direct, and lasting” before the year is out.

“We urge policymakers to use all the tools at their disposal to revitalize the economy, including direct cash payments, which are one of the quickest, most equitable and most effective ways to get families and the economy back on track,” the letter said.

Both chambers are currently on recess until Nov. 30. After that, the House of Representatives is scheduled to end for the year on Dec. 10, with the Senate closing out its term on Dec. 18. That leaves just 9 and 14 in-session days, respectively, to vote on a bill. However, negotiations can happen over the weekend and behind the scenes, and session length can be extended for a special vote. Complicating the timeline, Congress also has to vote on a bill before Dec. 11 to keep funding the government.

If time is the most immediate barrier to Congress reaching a deal, the deep chasm between Republican and Democratic positions on what a stimulus package should entail is the most bruising roadblock. In the 8 months since the CARES Act passed in March, the two sides have held fast to their respective positions, Democrats favoring a large bill with a second stimulus check and Republicans embracing a smaller relief package as a stopgap until the first mass coronavirus vaccines are administered in mid-2021. (Here’s what could happen if a new bill passes with no stimulus check.)

For a new COVID-19 rescue package to be signed into law in 2020, the compromise that’s so far been elusive will be key. Without another cash infusion into economic relief programs, the final protections dry up in a little over a month, leaving tens of millions of Americans without a safety net as the pandemic continues with renewed force.

“The pandemic is raging, and it’s starting to do damage again,” Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, told The New York Times this week, predicting that the economy will contract in the first half of 2021 without more stimulus.

As a result, there is more pressure for President-elect Joe Biden, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to support a smaller stimulus package than the $2.2 trillion Heroes Act that Democrats have backed since May. This bill would include a second direct payment for qualified adults and more money for dependents, plus enhanced unemployment benefits and funding for more programs besides. The idea behind the strategy shift would be to get some aid through before Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration and try to pass a larger bill after he takes office.

On Monday, a transition insider denied the claim that Biden’s transition team reportedly urged Democratic leaders in Congress to strike a deal now, according to a tweet from Washington Post reporter Jeff Stein.

Here’s what we know about where negotiations stand right now and what could happen before the end of the year.

How quickly could a new stimulus package pass?

Here are some possible scenarios that could play out over the coming weeks and months, depending on what happens in Washington.

When could a stimulus bill or package pass?

House votes	Senate votes	President signs
Dec. 9	Dec. 10	Dec. 11
Feb. 1, 2021 (after inauguration)	Feb. 2	Feb. 3
Feb. 16 (Feb. 15 is President’s Day)	Feb. 16	Feb. 16
Mar. 15	Mar. 16	Mar. 17

A stimulus bill is completed before Jan. 20: An agreement is made, and the current House and Senate vote before the new Congress is seated in January. If Trump signs the rescue bill into law, stimulus checks and other aid would likely begin to go out within weeks, with certain groups receiving financial help before the end of 2020.

Negotiators agree on a stimulus deal but it fails in either the Senate or House: In this situation, Democrats and Republicans could advance their own proposals that might pass in their majority chambers but fail (or fail to be considered) by the other. In this case, Congress might try again after Biden is sworn in as president.

Some funding could be included in a bill that also funds the government past Dec. 11: It’s possible that one piece of funding — for example a stimulus check, unemployment aid or an extension of the eviction stay — could make it into a bill to keep the government funded past Dec. 11 and avoid a shutdown. As sitting president, Trump would need to sign the bill into law for it to take effect.

Read more: Want your second stimulus check faster? Do this now

Talks once again fall apart until after Jan. 20: If partisan differences keep a bill from passing, it’s likely they’ll restart in some capacity after the inauguration in January.

If a bill does pass that includes a direct payment, here’s how quickly we think the IRS could send a second stimulus check.

Yes, the Democrats’ $2.2 trillion stimulus package still matters

On Oct. 1, the House of Representatives passed a revised Heroes Act that included a second stimulus check and additional benefits such as enhanced unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans. The House bill, endorsed primarily by Democrats, was not expected to advance through the Republican-controlled Senate, and indeed has not.

It provides the framework Pelosi is working from, however, has the support of Biden and could figure into future negotiations, depending on election results that could potentially shift the balance one way or another.

The vote was thought to provide cover for House Democrats as they campaign without a new relief bill, much as the Senate did earlier in September for Republican members with its $650 billion skinny bill. Following the vote, McConnell and Senate Republicans have shifted their support to a smaller $500 million proposal.

Biden on Nov. 16 called on Congress to pass the revised Heroes Act now.

What do Republicans and Democrats agree on in a new bill?

Proposals from both sides have included another stimulus payment of up to $1,200 for individuals who meet the requirements (although the Senate’s $500 billion bill does not include a second check, aid for airlines, enhanced unemployment insurance and extending the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses). The two sides also agree on more financial assistance for coronavirus testing and tracing and vaccine deployment.

Although the Senate’s targeted bills, which did not advance, did not include stimulus checks, Republicans (including those in the Senate) have supported them. 

Here are more details on the biggest points of contention between the White House Republicans and the Democrats.

For more information about stimulus checks, here’s how soon you might get your second stimulus check now, what you should do to speed up the delivery of a potential second check, and what to know about the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.