Industry starting prices generated from the off-course market while racing continues behind closed doors offer poorer value about fancied horses than SPs returned from the on-course betting ring, according to the latest study by the Horseracing Bettors Forum which compared SPs in 1,000 races in Britain last month against the same period in the previous three years.
The starting price has been a cornerstone of betting on horse racing for more than two centuries, and until March this year, the SPs had always been derived from a sample of prices offered by on-course bookies at the instant the runners set off.
When racing briefly moved behind closed doors in mid-March, however, the Starting Price Regulatory Commission – which is responsible for the accuracy and integrity of SPs – switched instead to a sample of off-course bookmakers’ prices, and that Industry SP (ISP) system was maintained when racing resumed post-lockdown on 1 June.
The HBF has been monitoring SP returns since 1 June and has found that the overround-per-runner (OPR) for ISPs – that is, the overall profit margin on the book divided by the numbers of runners – has been highly competitive with its predecessor. In June, in fact, the OPR was just over 1.5%, well below the average for the month in the previous three years of just under 1.9%.
The OPR has risen steadily since, though the October figure of just under 1.7pc was still slightly below the monthly average.
It is the expected return on investment (ROI) for bets on favourites versus bets on outsiders, however, which appears to reveal a subtle shift in the value on offer to backers. The HBF analysis looked at the ROI for the first three in the betting in handicaps – which tend to have bigger fields – and the first two in the market in non-handicaps.
In handicaps, it found that the ROI on SPs returned from the on-course market was -12% from 2017-19, but -14.8% since the introduction of Industry SPs. This was accompanied by a better ROI on the remaining horses in the race, up from -22.7% to -20.3%. In non-handicaps, the trend was similar, with ROI on the front two in the betting dropping from -9.2% to -11%, while the ROI on all other runners was -38.3% under the traditional system and 34.4% for the ISP.
Quick Guide
Chris Cook’s Friday tips
Catterick
12.05 Kk Lexion (nb) 12.38 Grouseman 1.13 Armattiekan 1.48 Northofthewall 2.23 Against All Odds 2.58 Ask Paddy 3.33 It’s A Lily
Ascot
12.20 Chantry House 12.55 The Edgar Wallace 1.30 Metier 2.05 Red Risk (nap) 2.40 Buzz 3.15 Mr Muldoon 3.45 Tide Times
Chepstow
12.30 Cheng Gong 1.05 Lieutenant Rocco 1.40 Kapga De Lily 2.15 Cyclop 2.50 Enzo D’Airy 3.25 Champagne Rhythm 4.00 Tactical Manoeuvre
Newcastle
4.15 La Rav 4.45 Parralel World 5.15 Pockley 5.45 Tiny Danser 6.15 Fantasy Keeper 6.45 Show Me A Sunset 7.15 Ballyare 7.45 Herringswell 8.15 Swiss Connection
An extra 2.8% on the amount that punters can expect to lose by backing market leaders at SP might not sound like a huge jump, but as HBF’s analysis points out, it can improve a bookie’s bottom line in a number of ways. In addition to boosting the gross margin on win bets, it will also improve the margin on multiples, most of which contain one or more favourites. The frequency and size of online payouts under “Best Odds Guaranteed” rules – where punters take a price and the SP is better – will also be reduced.
“Our SP analysis shows that punters betting the first two or three in the market will now be worse off than when SPs were derived from on-course bookmakers,” Colin Hord, the chair of the HBF, said on Thursday. “However those punters that bet longer-priced horses, which win less frequently, will be finding some additional returns. We will continue to review the figures, especially now that we have additional data from National Hunt racing.”