What does the election have to do with stimulus checks? Everything.
Angela Lang/CNET
It’s estimated that 160 million people voted in Tuesday’s election and mail-in ballots across the country are still being tabulated. The final results could have a big impact on issues like the Supreme Court, the shape of economic recovery and when negotiations to pass a new coronavirus rescue package are able to continue in earnest.
On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell threw another curveball by reversing a former statement and throwing his support behind a stimulus deal of some sort or another by the end of 2020 instead of the beginning of 2021.
“We need to sit down and talk to each other like we did back in March and April and address the problem,” McConnell said Nov. 4, according to The Washington Post. “I’m confident we will no matter who ends up running the government, no matter who’s in the White House, no matter who’s — I think we know the Democrats are going to run the House — no matter who runs the Senate, it’s time to overcome all that and get results.”
And yet, which party controls the House of Representatives and Senate, plus the office of the presidency itself, could heavily influence whether that coronavirus rescue package includes a new stimulus check, which McConnell has previously supported, but hasn’t recently mentioned. The White House’s paused $1.9 trillion proposal puts that payment at up to $1,200 for adults who qualify and additional assistance for child dependents, plus a wide range of other funding, including more weekly unemployment benefits. (Here’s every benefit that dries up Dec. 31 if there’s no more aid.)
Below, we detail the six major ways that the results of the election could affect the approval of a second stimulus payment. We update this story regularly with new information.
Read more: Joe Biden has a stimulus plan, too
Election results could decide when a new bill comes together
The final outcomes of the election will determine how quickly negotiations toward a stimulus agreement resume. Who becomes president and which party takes control of the House of Representatives and the Senate could motivate legislators to either strike a deal soon or wait until 2021.
“The motivation level on both sides will depend on how the election comes out,” said Senate Republican Whip John Thune, The Hill reported Oct. 30.
Read more: Nobody can take your stimulus check away, right? Not so fast
The majority party could keep or axe the stimulus check
If Congress ends up split between the two parties, a much narrower bill to bring targeted aid to programs considered critical could make it through before the inauguration. In this scenario, a separate stimulus package could potentially come in early 2021. Right now we have to continue to wait and see.
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Next stimulus checks: What to expect
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Election results may decide when a bill with a stimulus payment is voted on
Senators, representatives and President Donald Trump have all said they want to pass another stimulus bill after the election. But exactly when after the election is the question. There are two time periods of note. The first is the lame duck session from Nov. 4 to Jan. 3, when the new Congress starts. The other is after the presidential inauguration on Jan. 20.
McConnell hinted Oct. 30 that he wouldn’t bring the Senate to vote on more relief after Jan. 20, but changed his tune the morning after the election.
“As I’ve said repeatedly in the last few months, we need another rescue package,” McConnell said, according to CNBC. “Hopefully, the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election. And I think we need to do it and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.”
As Senate leader, McConnell decides when to bring legislation to a vote. His new statement may signal one less hurdle to pass a bill, but another stimulus check still isn’t guaranteed to be part of it.
Read more: Would you use your second check like these people?
The winner might influence the timeline for sending a check
Once again, there are two issues to consider when we think of how soon the IRS could send out a second stimulus check. The first is that the makeup of the incoming Congress and presidency could either buoy current leaders or potentially cause them to dig in their heels until the official swearing-in of the new term. That might mean a check would be approved closer to December, or later, in January or February, depending on how negotiations continue post-election.
Then there’s the question of how long it will take for the IRS to mobilize the first wave of stimulus checks, as well as payments for other groups, once a bill allocating more direct payments is approved. Learn more about the five priority groups we identified that helped determine when you got your first payment.
A new stimulus bill could change check qualifications several ways
Democratic and Republican negotiators both want to make changes to the eligibility requirements from the first stimulus check, but have different ideas about what should change.
For example, the Democratic proposals support sending certain undocumented immigrants to the US who pay taxes the same $1,200 stimulus check afforded to US citizens at home and abroad, as well as some people living in US territories. They’d also either broaden the definition of a dependent to include college students and older adults, or else approve of $1,000 per child dependent instead of $500 apiece. There may also be changes to some child support situations.
Republican proposals originated the $1,000 allocation per child dependent.
It’s also possible a new bill could clarify if people who are imprisoned are eligible to receive a stimulus check. The issue is under current legal review.
New eligibility rules may get you a bigger or smaller, payment
New qualifications might dictate a new total amount of stimulus payment for you. We’ve made some calculations to show you how you might be affected. In addition to changes in a bill that would show up in your next direct payment, there may be changes to your life circumstances since last April that could alter the size of a second check, in either direction. For more details, this is how the IRS determines how much money your particular check would be.
For more information about stimulus checks, here’s what to do if you haven’t received your first payment and how to calculate how much money a second check could bring you.