WASHINGTON — Both President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden’s presidential campaigns are upping the ad-spending ante in the Midwest in the home stretch before Election Day, with significant new activity in Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio.
Team Trump (his campaign and the Republican National Committee) has increased its daily TV/radio investments in each of these states over the last few weeks, but have still trailed Biden with few exceptions, according to data from the ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics as of the end of Thursday.
Trump and the RNC upped their TV/Radio spending in Ohio to nearly $200,000 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Prior to then, neither GOP group had spent any significant amount in Ohio since Sept. 14. Now, the daily Republican effort is on par with the Biden campaign, which has been spending about $200,000 a day every weekday in Ohio since early October.
But the late move by the GOP is just a drop in the bucket of the overall spending there since the start of the month — Democrats have outspent Republicans $6.3 million to $610,000 from Oct. 1 through Oct. 29.
In Iowa, Biden has outspent Trump and the RNC by a factor of four since the start of October, with Trump/RNC’s spending only really coming on the board in the last two weeks. In recent days, Biden’s team has doubled its daily spend, going from about $200,000 a day last week to almost $400,000 on Wednesday and Thursday. Meanwhile, while Trump had been getting a big lift from outside groups, it’s dwindled significantly in recent days, leaving Republicans being outspent there on the airwaves about 4-1 since Tuesday.
Team Trump (Trump+the RNC) have been closing the gap in Michigan too, even as Biden and the DNC still hold a slight spending edge. Just last week, Biden and the DNC were doubling the RNC/Trump spend (about a $600,000 disparity). But as of Thursday, the Biden/DNC advantage dropped to about $100,000.
There’s also been some noteworthy activity outside of the Midwest, particularly in Georgia, where Biden keeps increasing his spending. His campaign started spending about $300,000 per day on TV/radio ad buys on Oct. 16, and has kept that pace on the weekdays until Thursday, when that daily spend jumped to more than $400,000. Trump and the RNC have increased its spending over the last two weeks up to about $200,000 a day over the last four weekdays.
Meanwhile, traditional battleground states aren’t seeing the same tight spending race. Biden continues to hold a significant daily lead in states like Arizona, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with the Trump/RNC effort not making any meaningful pushes to close those gaps in recent days.
Mike Bloomberg makes final push in FL as he hits $100M pledged investment for Biden
WASHINGTON — With five days to go until Election Day, Michael Bloomberg is making a final push to mobilize Black voters in Florida as part of the culmination of his $100 million spending pledge to help former vice president Joe Biden in the battleground state.
Bloomberg will donate an additional $600,000 to BlackPAC, helping expand the organization’s canvassing efforts in Duval and Leon counties, a Bloomberg aide exclusively told NBC News. The aide added that Bloomberg’s own PAC, Independence USA, is expanding its radio buy by up to $500,000 in the final days with two new mobilization ads featuring former President Barack Obama’s recent remarks Miami and Orlando, targeting Black voters in those cities.
Bloomberg’s total Florida investment helped fund voter persuasion and mobilization efforts through canvassing programs, bilingual paid media, and direct mail campaigns targeting underrepresented voters, according to media reports, press releases and interviews with NBC.
“There is virtually no path to victory for Donald Trump without Florida, which is why Mike invested heavily in the state,” Bloomberg senior adviser Kevin Sheekey told NBC.
“In these final days, we’re doing everything we can to reach as many Florida voters as possible across to get them to vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.”
Though the Biden campaign has also been spending millions in Florida ads, Bloomberg’s contributions fueled direct voter contact too, while the candidate took a cautious approach to in-person campaigning during the pandemic.
Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of BlackPAC, said the face-to-face conversations with canvassing efforts funded by Bloomberg, especially in South Florida, “create a sense of urgency” to vote — she noted more than 80,000 Black voters who did not participate in 2016 have already voted.
“Those face to face conversations are really critical and important, and it’s also important that Black communities see people out mobilizing the vote, this is certainly a part of our cultural history,” she said on a press call.
And while Bloomberg’s last push is for Black voters, his investment has had a significant impact on the effort to mobilize Latino voters, in particular with his $14 million investment in Priorities USA and the Latino Victory Fund.
“We’re already seeing, especially in Florida, that we’re turning out more Latinos than ever,” said Latino Victory Fund National Finance Director Daniela Fernandez.
“I think Bloomberg’s investment is key, without these funds we wouldn’t have been able to run these culturally competent ads to engage our community in an effective way,” she added of the ability to effectively use his funds as “validators” of their community — specifically, in multiple dialectics of Spanish — and collect voter data to use for years to come.
By Election Day, Bloomberg expects to spend nearly $50 million on mixed media advertising in Florida through his own Independence USA PAC, in addition to his investments in partner organizations targeting Black voters, Latino/Hispanic voters (Caribbean, Puerto Rican, Cuban, and Venezuelan communities), Jewish voters, seniors and veterans.
Per NBC’s tracking, Bloomberg has spread his donations across at least 17 organizations and PACs.
Both presidential candidates will be in the Sunshine State Thursday, with Biden’s fifth trip since the Democratic National Convention and Trump’s sixth visit since the Republican National Convention.
The final NBC News/Marist poll of Florida shows Biden leading Trump 51 percent to 47 percent, within the margin of error.
Bloomberg’s assist to Biden comes after his Democratic presidential primary bid, where he spent about $1 billion of his own money.
N.H. voters are used to being courted on their doorstep. Covid-19 has challenged that tradition.
WASHINGTON — Months ago, New Hampshire was the center of the political universe: its first in the nation primary on Feb. 11 drew candidates, crowds and lots of door-to-door campaigning — the kind of personal attention Granite State voters have long demanded.
But that was before the coronavirus pandemic upended life across the country and transformed the way political campaigns are conducted. It’s been a particular challenge in New Hampshire — a state whose four electoral votes could make a difference in a close general election contest. Biden has not visited the state since his fifth place finish in the primary as his campaign has largely stepped away from in-person voter contact because of Covid-19, while the president’s campaign has stuck with it.
“The political science research is really pretty clear, the most effective way you can influence people is direct personal contact,” said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire survey center.
“You have to have to play the hand you’re dealt, and I think both campaigns have been dealt the same hand, I think the difference is that on the Democratic side, they’ve hamstrung themselves a little bit more than Trump has because the concern about COVID has been amplified,” Smith said.
The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee began building what they call the largest-ever GOP ground operation in the state in 2019. After a pause early in the pandemic, the campaign resumed door knocking in mid-June.
Trump narrowly lost the state to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and continues to trail in polls to Biden, but made his third trip to the state this year on Sunday.
“This is not the crowd that comes in second, okay?” President Trump told thousands of packed supporters in Londonderry, N.H.
Trump’s New Hampshire strategists insist that New Hampshire voters’ desire to personally vet candidates and their surrogates gives them a clear advantage. The campaign claims to have made more than 1.8 million direct voter contacts in New Hampshire already so far.
Corey Lewandowski, a New Hampshire resident who served as Trump’s campaign manager in 2016 said the Trump campaign’s efforts go well beyond Biden’s.
“You juxtapose [our efforts] with the Biden campaign, and they think that you can Zoom into an election and win. It doesn’t work. New Hampshire wants to vet people face to face and Joe Biden doesn’t respect that or the people in New Hampshire,” Lewandowski said.
Though the Biden campaign recently gave the green light for in-person door knocking — which began in limited form in New Hampshire during a canvass kickoff on Saturday — most volunteers in the state are still opting for safer contactless literature drops. And Democrats in New Hampshire are focused on building voter protection programs to ensure ballots are counted.
In March the Democratic state party hired a voter protection director, and in June began investing in a voter assistance hotline, resource website and voter education outreach.
The state is allowing voters to cast absentee ballots amid the pandemic, and more than 200,000 residents have requested absentee ballots, up from 75,000 in 2016.
“With this year Covid being an excuse for someone to cast an absentee ballot, it really just changed the whole landscape and how Granite Staters are voting and making sure that people have that information, and also making sure that the elections are going as smoothly as they possibly can on the ground,” said Liz Wester, director of the Democrats’ coordinated campaign group.
This gamble in both resources and messaging is where Democrats say they have an edge against Republicans in the state.
“That’s been a huge part of the campaign more than it has been in past years, really making sure that people’s relationships and communities and networks are hearing the information directly from someone that they trust because we’re not having in-person events in the same way Republicans are.” said Wester.
Smith, for his part, raised questions about the Democrats’ approach.
“I think the evidence supporting voter education, that just doesn’t motivate people emotionally to get them out to polls,” he said.
Democratic Senate candidates have ad spending advantage in nearly every competitive race
WASHINGTON — Democratic Senate candidates have outspent Republicans in TV and radio ad spending in nearly every competitive Senate race, according to data from Advertising Analytics.
In Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, one Georgia seat, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas the Democratic challenger or incumbent has outspent the Republican on TV and radio ads. The only race where Republicans have outspent Democrats is the special election in Georgia which features two Republican candidates, Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins, and just one chief Democratic candidate, Rev. Raphael Warnock.
Democrats are outspending Republicans by nearly 2-to-1. The deficit in spending is tighter, though, when outside groups like the National Senate Republican Senatorial Committee, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and PACs are factored in. Republican groups have boosted funding in Colorado, Georgia, Kansas and Kentucky so much that the combined Republican effort in those races is greater than the Democratic effort.
But in key races that could turn Senate control over to the Democrats, the Democratic candidates are dominating the airwaves.
Mark Kelly, the Democratic challenger in Arizona, has spent over $37 million on TV and radio ads in the general election — incumbent Sen. Martha McSally has spent just about $17.8 million in that same time frame. When the total Democratic and Republican efforts are added in, the Democratic effort has still spent $19.6 million more on the airwaves.
It’s a similar story in Iowa. Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield has spent $29.2 million on ads while Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has spent $10.6 million. Even with outside money, the Democratic spending has over $18 million on Republican spending.
Republicans’ best case to keep Senate control would be to win races currently rated as a toss-up, while flipping Alabama Sen. Doug Jones’ seat.
The Cook Political Report has rated both Georgia seats, Iowa, Maine, Montana, North Carolina and South Carolina as toss-ups.
The Senate races in South Carolina and North Carolina have brought out the biggest spending. The total Democratic effort in South Carolina is over $66 million — the total effort to re-elect Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has been about $44.8 million. In North Carolina, the Democratic effort has topped $112 million, while incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis’ total effort is about $95.7 million.
Democrats’ ability to win outright control of the Senate would be netting four seats. They would also maintain control if they had a net gain of three seats and Joe Biden won the White House with would-be Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote.
Key to that victory could be keeping Michigan’s open Senate seat in Democratic hands. Sen. Gary Peters is being challenged by Republican John James, and the race has tightened over several weeks. Plus the two campaigns have spent close to the same amount on radio and TV ad buys. The total effort to re-elect Peters in the general election is about $50.3 million. The total Republican effort to elect James is $46.2 million.
Democratic presidential effort poised to outspend Republicans $93 million to $41 million in race’s final days
WASHINGTON — President Trump’s campaign is poised to be heavily outspent on TV and radio ads in the final six days ahead of Election Day.
Trump’s campaign has $10.1 million booked on television and radio between Wednesday and Election Day, compared to Biden’s $46.9 million, according to Advertising Analytics, an ad-tracking firm.
The president can still count on a big assist from the Republican National Committee, which is spending another $12.6 million in key swing states, and from outside groups set to spend tens of millions more.
But when all aligned outside groups are combined with the campaign’s future spending, Democrats are set to outspend Republicans $93.4 million to $40.7 million on the presidential ad airwaves in the closing days.
In many states, the majority of Trump’s spend is coming from a joint effort by the RNC and the Trump campaign.
Trump has just $400,000 booked between Wednesday and Election Day in Arizona, where he’s counting on an assist of $2.3 million in spending from the RNC. Biden is set to spend $5.8 million on ads there in the next six days.
In Florida, Trump’s campaign has just $300,000 booked over that same period, with the RNC set to spend $2.1 million on TV and radio. Yet, Biden has more than $7 million in ad bookings there through Election Day, and Democrats as a whole are set to outspend Republicans there by a factor of four.
Trump has no spending planned for Iowa, Nevada or Texas in the next six days, three states where the RNC isn’t currently planning to spend more than a few hundred thousand dollars. And Trump and the RNC combined have booked $900,000 in spending in Wisconsin, compared to $3 million for Biden and the DNC.
The re-election campaign, both the Trump campaign and the RNC, has its biggest comparative investments in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina and Ohio, when compared to the amount the Biden campaign has invested there.
- In Georgia, Biden and the DNC plan to spend $1.7 million, compared to Trump and the RNC’s $1.1 million.
- In Michigan, Biden and the DNC plan to spend $5 million, compared to Trump and the RNC’s $4.8 million.
- In Minnesota, Trump and the RNC are set to outspend their rivals $1.4 million to $1.1 million
- In North Carolina, Biden and the DNC plan to spend $4.9 million, compared to Trump and the RNC’s $4.1 million
- And in Ohio, Biden and the DNC plan to spend about $1.2 millon, compared to Trump and the RNC’s $1.1 million
All of those states but Minnesota were ones Trump won in 2016.
The data from Advertising Analytics shows the joint RNC/Trump campaign account paying for more spending in these closing days than the Trump campaign is alone. By comparison, the Biden campaign alone is paying for virtually all of its ads down the stretch.
These spending numbers are not completely final, as groups can still move money around, but represent the current ad reservations by Tuesday afternoon.
The differing strategies aren’t unprecedented — national party committees typically work hand-in-glove with presidential candidates in the general election.
But Trump’s campaign has been battling cash woes for a while — most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission show Trump’s campaign committee itself had $43.6 million banked away as of Oct. 14, while Biden’s campaign committee had $162 million.
And Biden has been outspending Trump in key battleground states for weeks — he spent more than Trump from Oct. 20-26 in every single state rated as a toss up or leaning on the NBC News Political Unit’s latest battleground map.
The Trump campaign partially addressed the ad disparity in a statement refuting reports that it was “pulling” ads down in Florida.
“The campaign, with the RNC coordinated buy, is up with a seven figure buy in Florida on broadcast TV alone. In addition in Florida, we are up with six figures in local cable, six figures in Spanish language, and six figures on radio,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said, touting the campaign’s investments over the race’s final two weeks.
“Including Florida, the Trump campaign is on television in 12 states and also nationally.”
—Monica Alba contributed
Pence keeps campaign schedule despite Covid-19 outbreak
WASHINGTON — Vice President Mike Pence has continued a robust campaign schedule and will travel throughout the country during the final week of the election, despite a Covid-19 outbreak among close aides and staff.
Five of Pence’s aides, including his chief of staff Marc Short, his “body man” Zach Bauer, and his senior political adviser Marty Obst, have tested positive for the coronavirus. Despite being in close contact with several of those aides, Pence is not quarantining because his active campaigning was deemed essential work.
“While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the Vice President will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel,” the vice president’s press secretary Devin O’Malley wrote in a statement.
Pence traveled on Sunday and Monday to campaign in North Carolina and Minnesota, respectively. The vice president’s aggressive travel schedules comes amid renewed scrutiny of the safety precautions being put in place after the outbreak among the vice president’s staff.
A source familiar with the procedures said contact tracing was completed, and that three Pence aides — Bauer and the two unnamed staffers — began protectively quarantining Tuesday after Obst tested positive.
Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence have reported testing negative for Covid-19 since confirmation of the positive cases close to them were disclosed.
However, Pence was notably absent at the White House’s swearing in ceremony for now-Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett on Monday. Pence was originally supposed to preside over the Senate for her confirmation vote. He announced earlier in the day on Monday that he would not be present at the vote but would be in D.C. if his vote was needed to confirm Barrett’s nomination.
Pence’s office did not respond to NBC News’ multiple requests for comment on why he would skip that event but still travel to campaign.
Pence is expected to travel to North Carolina and South Carolina on Tuesday, and visit several battleground for the rest of the week: Stopping in Wisconsin and Michigan on Wednesday, and Iowa and Nevada on Thursday.
However, while Pence will continue to travel, some new policies have been put in place.
Both Pence and the second lady are tested for Covid-19 every day, and Pence and his staff that travels have been wearing masks consistently — something that was more relaxed prior to the outbreak. On Air Force Two, Pence has been seen wearing his mask, and is not getting visitors in his private cabin. The travel staff has also been cutdown for several events compared to the dozens that were present before.
Pence has also cutdown on his time interacting with supporters. After both of his events on Sunday and Monday, Pence went straight between his plane and the stage for his speeches. Typically, before the outbreak, Pence would work the rope line without wearing a mask. The vice president has also stopped doing regional interviews while campaigning. Normally, Pence would conduct two to five regional interviews during a day of events to make sure he hit local TV markets.
Barrett ascendance isn’t clear cut winner for Trump among GOP suburban women in focus group
WASHINGTON — When President Trump announced Judge Amy Coney Barrett as his Supreme Court pick last month, GOP strategist Sarah Longwell, a co-founder of Republican Voters Against Trump, threw together an impromptu Zoom meeting with her ongoing focus group of nine college-educated suburban Republican women — all of whom voted for Trump in 2016 but are now undecided — to gauge how it was playing.
Her assumption, she told NBC News, was that the nomination of a conservative woman to the high court could be a last-minute boon for Trump’s re-election bid.
Based on what she heard, that assumption was wrong.
“Not a single person brought up the courts.” Longwell, who opposes Trump, said. Instead, “they were all super upset” about Trump’s refusal to commit to a peaceful transition of power and “a number offered they were leaning more towards Biden because they couldn’t believe Trump said that.”
Barrett was officially sworn in as an Associate Justice on Tuesday.
Weeks later, and with a different group of women who voted for Trump in 2016, Longwell said she still wasn’t seeing the pick as a boon to the president politically. “They don’t want the court to go too far right, they want balance, even the ones that are pretty hard-core conservative. And half the groups are always pro-choice,” she said.
Longwell said that her observations revealed that many of these women don’t prioritize the court, especially not over concerns about Trump’s behavior and temperament. A number viewed the rush to confirm before the Nov. 3 election as “unfair.” And others expressed deep respect for former Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who helped uphold Roe v Wade, the landmark 1973 ruling guaranteeing access to legal abortion.
“I actually think it’s a minus” for Trump with suburban women, said Lesa Brackbill, a 37-year-old lifelong Republican who voted for Trump and describes herself as anti-abortion rights. “Integrity matters to me” and the fact that Republicans are “doing this” after blocking President Obama’s election-year nominee “is wrong,” said Brackbill, of Hershey, Penn.
Brackbill said she remained undecided about who to support in the presidential race.
Now the Trump re-election campaign is scrambling to hold on to these suburban women, who have grown skeptical about Trump and are shifting to supporting Joe Biden in large numbers, according to multiple public polls.
These voters include older women who have experienced decades of political fights over abortion rights as well as their daughters — most born after Roe — who consider it settled law.
Wednesday Hripak, a 45-year-old landscape company manager in North Carolina, is among them: “For me, it is a huge factor,” said Hripak, a registered Republican who is pro-abortion rights and voted for Trump but is now leaning toward Biden. Barrett will dramatically shift the court, she said.
“These older men and figures that have been in politics and running the country for so long shouldn’t be having the final say on women’s health care,” said Hripak.
According to Pew Research Center, even Republican-leaning women are roughly split on Roe v Wade, a decision Democrats say Barrett would likely vote to overturn.
Indeed, the last Supreme Court confirmation fight, over seating Justice Brett Kavanaugh, illustrates that court battles aren’t a motivating factor for many suburban women, especially for the GOP. After his confirmation, female voter enthusiasm split pretty equally by party, while it pushed independent women to the Democratic side by 12 points.
The court battles — and their focus on abortion rights — is even shifting the political advantage toward the Democrats, experts say. With Trump almost certain to seat his third justice before Election Day, the fate of Roe, once thought irreversible, suddenly appears at risk. “This is the first time we know of since we’ve had data that the Democrats are more energized than the Republicans,” said Celinda Lake, a longtime Democratic pollster.
Battleground ad spending: Biden maintains advantage in key swing states
WASHINGTON — A look at the TV and radio ad spending in the battleground states helps tell the story behind Joe Biden’s lead, showing big spending advantages over President Donald Trump in places like Michigan, Wisconsin and even Pennsylvania.
Biden outspent Trump in every single one of the states rated as toss ups or leaning on the NBC News Political Unit’s latest battleground map over the last week (Oct 20-26).
Here’s some state-by-state analysis:
Arizona: Biden and Trump both slightly boosted spending over the last week, with Biden spending more than double Trump — $5.7 million to $2 million. GOP outside groups have tried to close the gap for Trump, but Democrats retained a significant edge with help from their outside groups, too.
Florida: Biden increased spending here, while Trump decreased spending week-over-week — the Democrat spent three times as much as the Republican ($8.4 million to $2.8 million). Total spending for Republicans (campaigns + outside groups) is virtually stagnant, while total Democratic spending increased week-over-week by 23 percent.
Georgia: Directionally, both campaigns slightly increased their investment. But Biden spent almost three times Trump over that seven-day stretch, $1.7 million to less than $600,000. When you factor in outside groups, Republicans have a $500,000 edge.
Iowa: Biden has significantly upped the ante here, going from $700,000 two weeks ago to more than $1.1 million last week. Trump spent just $200,000 over the past week. But with outside spending, it’s the red team with the edge, $2.5 million to $1.7 million
Michigan: Biden has outspent Trump here every individual day since well before Labor Day, and it shows. Biden spent more than $4 million over the week, with Trump under $2 million. And when factoring in outside groups (including a big $4.7 million week for Future Forward), it’s a 3-to-1 advantage for the blue team.
Nevada: Both campaigns increased their TV/radio ad investment here, but with Biden significantly outpacing Trump. With outside groups, the Democrats are spending about 10 times that of Republicans
North Carolina: Trump is benefitting from a big GOP outside-spending push. Biden spent $3.8 million last week to Trump’s $2.6, but that amounted to a weekly increase for both campaigns. When outside groups are included, the advantage goes to Team Trump by almost $3 million (or almost 40 percent).
Ohio: Biden decreased his spend here over the past week to $1.1 million, but neither the Trump campaign nor any GOP outside groups have been on the board in weeks.
Pennsylvania: Biden keeps increasing his spending to the moon, eclipsing $8 million in just one week, a number matched by the Democratic outside group Future Forward. With Trump spending just $1.4 million last week there, the total spending gap that week (when you factor in outside groups) was about $24 million to $8 million.
Texas: Biden has decreased his spending to about $600,000 for the week (and he’s getting outside help), while Trump and GOP outside groups were dark.
Wisconsin: A bloodbath similar to Pennsylvania, both on the candidate and outside group sides. Biden outspent Trump by about 10 times ($3 million to under $300,000). And including outside groups, Democrats hold a huge edge of $9 million to less than $4 million. Note: The Trump campaign was the 10th biggest spender in Wisconsin over past week.
Majority of Americans don’t expect to know presidential winner on Election Day
WASHINGTON — A week out from Election Day, a majority of American adults don’t expect to know who will win the presidential race on Nov. 3, according to new data from the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll.
Sixty-eight percent of adults said they don’t expect to know if President Trump or Joe Biden won the election on election night, but there’s a split in how long people will think it will take to find out. Thirty-eight percent said they expect to know within a few days, 19 percent said within a few weeks and 11 percent said they expect it to take longer than a few weeks.
Thirty percent of Americans said they still expect to know who won the contest on Nov. 3.
The data comes as a record number of votes have already been cast in this election either by mail-in ballots or early voting in-person. According to NBC News Decision Desk and Target Smart data, 62 million voters have cast their ballot early. The total early vote in 2016 was 50 million.
In the NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll, 38 percent of adults said they have already voted. Another 42 percent said it is “absolutely certain” that they will vote. Just eight percent of adults said they will not vote. A majority of adults who reported that they already voted were Democrats or Democratic-leaners. Fifty-two percent of Democrats and those who lean Democratic said they already voted, while 31 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners said the same. Nineteen percent of independents said they already voted.
A stark 69 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners said they voted by mail and 30 percent said they voted early in-person. Comparatively, 52 percent of Republican and Republican-leaners said they voted by mail and 47 percent said they voted early in person. Sixty-eight percent of independents said they mailed in their ballot while 31 percent said they went to the polls in person.
The amount of mail-in ballots could be the reason a winner is not declared on election night. In several key states to both Biden and Trump’s win, like Pennsylvania, early ballots cannot be counted until Election Day. Other swing states though, like Florida, expect to have results on Nov. 3 because they begin counting ballots early.
Both sides ramp up ground games in suddenly battleground state of Texas
HOUSTON — With just a week to go until Election Day both Democrat and Republican groups are on the ground in Texas working to turn-out last-minute voters.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican Super PAC has invested $1 million in the state, in an effort to turn out voters in areas where there hasn’t been a robust GOP voter outreach effort.
“We are trying to reach low propensity voters, Republicans who haven’t always gone out to vote,” Gabriela Hernandez, a project manager for the group told NBC News. The organization’s strategy is to talk to voters about local issues and congressional races in hopes that they will turn out to help Republican candidates win up and down the ballot. “Everyone knows how close it can be,” Hernandez said. “So these efforts right now hitting just these 1,000 doors can really make a difference.”
Meanwhile Democratic groups like the Texas Organizing Project are also barnstorming the state alongside Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke. They’re focused on galvanizing Black and Latino voters who are registered to vote, but haven’t done so historically. The goal: to turn Texas, a historically red state, blue.
“It’s going to pay off on November third because guess what, we’re going to flip Texas,” Texas Organizing Project Deputy Director Brianna Brown, told NBC News.
And O’Rourke says a win for Democrats in Texas could have implications far beyond just the presidential race.
“[Texas] is the state that could put Joe Biden over the top on election night, help us win a Democratic majority in the statehouse and help control — help flip control of the us senate.”
More than 7.1 million Texas voters have already cast ballots, more than any other state in the country. The latest polls show Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump in a dead heat in the Lone Star State.
Democrats hold big edge in Spanish-language TV and radio spending up and down ballot
WASHINGTON — Much has been made about the significant ad spending advantage enjoyed by Democrats this cycle, but the trend extends to Spanish-language ads too, up and down the ballot.
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign has spent $17.3 million on Spanish-language television and radio ads, compared to the Trump campaign’s $8.3 million through Sunday, according to Advertising Analytics.
And that margin is even bigger when outside groups are taken into consideration — overall, Democratic groups have spent $51.6 million on Spanish-language presidential TV and radio ads to the GOP’s $9.8 million, per Advertising Analytics.
Both presidential campaigns are embarking on similar Spanish-language strategies on the TV airwaves, at least at the broad level — a mix of ads that evoke their central campaign themes, along with specific messages targeting the Hispanic community.
For example, many of Trump’s Spanish ads evoke his rhetoric on the economy (he regularly boasts about how minority unemployment dropped during his campaign, before the coronavirus pandemic), with people praising the Trump economy. But he also is making explicit arguments to Spanish-speakers by trying to argue that the nation under Biden would resemble the socialist/communist regimes in Latin and South American countries.
Biden’s embarking on a similar combination of translating his general campaign message into Spanish, but also running spots targeted specifically on issues the campaign thinks will resonate with Spanish-speakers. Their spots include the sweeping calls for a new direction in America that’s become a central message of his campaign, as well as testimonial ads from Spanish speakers criticizing Trump’s economic record and coronavirus response.
But he’s also running those more targeted messages, pushing back on the socialist attacks and criticizing Trump’s response to Hurricane Maria hitting Puerto Rico.
The Spanish-language ad advantage can be seen down-ballot too. In Senate races, Democrats have spent $16.1 million on Spanish-language TV and radio ads to the GOP’s $1.7 million.
And in House races, Democrats have spent $11.6 million on Spanish-language ads to the GOP’s $3.8 million, per Advertising Analytics.