Stimulus package negotiations: Senate’s Monday vote sets up a new Trump showdown

With less than three weeks until the Nov. 3 election, a conflict is brewing that could result in a standoff within a Republican party divided on the contents and price tag of a new stimulus bill. 

On Monday, Senate Majority Mitch McConnell will lead his members in a vote on a $500 billion stand-alone bill to extend the Paycheck Protection Program, a loan for businesses to help keep employees during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. McConnell has made it clear he’s not in favor of the larger $1.8 trillion offer currently being negotiated by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and supported by President Donald Trump.

“[Trump] is willing to go higher than my members are,” McConnell told reporters Thursday, according to the Washington Post, setting up a potential clash with Trump. The president is expected to pressure McConnell to bring a final stimulus bill to a vote, Bloomberg reported Friday.

“If Speaker Pelosi wanted a deal, we could round up enough Senate Republicans to get a deal,” White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Friday. 

Mnuchin and Pelosi are making progress on the stimulus bill, which would include a second stimulus check for up to $1,200 per individual and more for families. Having cleared the hurdle of funding for testing and contact tracing, the problem getting the support of Senate Republicans is mounting. 

The impending election isn’t the only source of urgency to pass more stimulus aid. On Thursday, the Department of Labor announced a total of 886,000 new jobless claims for the week — up 77,000 from the week prior. And 14 million people who were helped by the CARES Act’s $600 per week unemployment benefit fell back into poverty after benefits expired, a new study from the Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy (PDF), published Thursday, found.

“We need to get money to the American public now, the people that are most hurting,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC Thursday. 

“Our disagreements are about more than dollars and cents,” Pelosi wrote Thursday night about the terms of negotiations. “They are about values and common sense and respect for lives, livelihoods and life of our American Democracy.”

Although it’s unclear how the impending three-way war of wills between Republicans, the White House and Democrats could impact the fate of the stimulus package. So what could happen next? Read on for more details on the bumpy path of stimulus talks. We update this story often.

How likely is it that the Senate’s stand-alone bill will become law?

McConnell plans to bring his Senate proposal to fund more payroll assistance to a vote on Oct. 19. “Our first order of business will be voting again on targeted relief for American workers, including new funding for the PPP,” he said Tuesday.

Pelosi has consistently rejected a stand-alone bill that is not tied to a larger aid package. In other words, she has said she would support a tailored bill if there are also assurances that a larger deal is also being worked on.

It’s hard to say what will happen, and if increasing pressure in the run-up to the election will cause any side’s stance to soften. There are currently two ideas in play for a stand-alone bill.

The White House has also recently urged Congress to repurpose $130 billion in unused money from the payroll protection program that was part of the CARES Act. The money would fund new financial assistance for small businesses or the airline industry. (That isn’t enough to fund stimulus checks.)

Could a new relief bill still pass before the election? 

With just a few weeks before the Nov. 3 election, Congress is running out of time to pass additional aid.

If talks fizzle before Nov. 3, Pelosi has said that Congress could pick up the thread on another economic rescue package following the election. It isn’t clear how the outcome of the election would speed up or delay the passage of a bill.

In addition to the office of president — where incumbent Trump faces off against former vice president Joe Biden — Congress could see a change to its membership along party lines, which could affect the shape of a final bill.

But with talks currently ongoing, we’ve suggested five possible dates, both before and after the November election. These are speculative only. If a bill does pass, here’s how quickly we think the IRS could send a second stimulus check.

When could a stand-alone stimulus bill or package pass?

House votes	Senate votes	President signs
Oct. 26	Oct. 27	Oct. 28
Nov. 9	Nov. 10	Nov. 11
Nov. 16	Nov. 17	Nov. 18
Nov. 23	Nov. 24	Nov. 25
Feb. 1, 2021	Feb. 2, 2021	Feb. 3, 2021

Why did Trump’s position keep changing?

Trump has been increasingly vocal in his support of a large stimulus bill, at one point saying he wanted to corral more stimulus money than Republicans and Democrats. 

But while being treated for COVID-19 with a powerful steroid known to have side effects, he instructed his team on Oct. 6 to stop negotiating on a new deal, directing Congress instead to pass a stand-alone bill for another round of $1,200 checks and renew payroll assistance for the airlines and other industries. 

By Oct. 9, he was encouraging negotiators to “go big” on a new stimulus bill and on Oct. 12 he urged fellow Republicans to “pull back” on the due process for Barrett’s confirmation hearings “and go for STIMULUS for the people!!!”

According to Trump on Oct. 6, his belief that a deal on a stimulus package wouldn’t be reached in the short time left and desire to quickly confirm Supreme Court associate justice nominee Amy Coney Barrett led to the decision. Barrett’s confirmation hearing began Oct. 12. On Thursday, he tweeted yet again that he was ready to sign a bill. 

Didn’t the House recently vote on a new stimulus bill?

On Oct. 1, the House of Representatives passed a revised Heroes Act that includes a second stimulus check and additional benefits such as enhanced unemployment benefits for tens of millions of Americans. The new House bill, endorsed primarily by Democrats, has little chance of advancing through the Republican-controlled Senate, though.

According to Pelosi, the vote on the revised Heroes bill was independent of ongoing negotiations with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. If Pelosi and Mnuchin do agree on a new proposal, a new bill would need to be separately drafted and voted on in both the House and Senate before being signed into law. The total cost of the package and funding allocations like a child tax credit have remained chief sticking points.

The vote is thought to provide cover for House Democrats as they campaign without a new relief bill, much as the Senate did earlier in September for Republican members with its $650 billion skinny bill. Like the skinny Senate bill, this new House proposal has little chance of advancing in the other chamber.

The vote is thought to provide cover for House Democrats as they campaign without a new relief bill, much as the Senate did earlier in September for Republican members with its $650 billion skinny bill. Like the skinny Senate bill, this new House proposal has little chance of advancing in the other chamber.

Do Republicans and Democrats agree on anything?

Proposals from both sides include another stimulus payment of up to $1,200 for individuals who meet the requirements, among topics like aid for airlines, enhanced unemployment insurance and extending the Paycheck Protection Program for businesses. Mnuchin has also said they’ve found agreement on areas like testing, contact tracing, vaccines and distribution. 

What happens next?

The situation is still in flux. For now, we wait to see if there are any developments. Anything could still happen. 

For more information, here’s how soon you might get your second stimulus check and what to know about the HEALS, CARES and Heroes stimulus bill proposals that could help inform a final package.