The Democrat candidate leads in the polls in key swing states as election day looms. According to Guardian and Opinium polling, Mr Biden leads in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona among others. While 2016 polling undercounted now-US President Donald Trump in swing states, Mr Biden has built up a bigger lead than Hillary Clinton did before her defeat. The former Vice President has hovered around 50 percent in the polls and held a lead of at least 10 points over Mr Trump.
Despite this, analysis by Ben Walker for the New Statesman highlights how it could still turn sour for the Democrats.
Their model showed that though Mr Biden has enjoyed a big lead, his chances stood at less than one in five in September – a probability that has grown since July.
Mr Walker highlighted reasons why Mr Biden’s popularity appeared to slump.
Firstly, the question of the economy has proved a difficult one for the Democrats.
A recent YouGov survey found 67 percent of Americans ranked jobs and the economy as a “very important” issue to them, and 53 percent of those polled said they approved of the President’s handling of the issue.
Just 39 percent approved of Mr Trump’s response to COVID-19 however – but it is clear that many in the US still back the President on the economy.
The second threat to Mr Biden is the broad coalition of voters he is aiming to attract.
He is looking to convince both liberal, younger voters as well as older, more centre ground voters.
READ MORE: Joe Biden’s election hopes dashed in dire warning: ‘He can’t win!’
Polls also show that despite Mr Biden’s lead, he isn’t necessarily a popular candidate.
Some 58 percent of Mr Biden supporters say their vote is more against President Trump than for the Democrat.
This is in stark contrast to Mr Trump’s supporters, 80 percent of whom say their vote is more for Mr Trump than against Mr Biden, a YouGov poll suggested.
Mr Walker added: “Biden is still the clear favourite to win this election, and remains in what is a historically strong position.
“But he’d be foolish to ignore those flashing dashboard lights. There is still a way to go before November, and it might well be that the Democrats have to end up actively winning the election after all, rather than just waiting for their opponent to lose.”
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A recent study also makes for grim reading for Mr Biden and the Democrats.
Published in August, it found that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for President in the 2020 election.
This could suggest President Trump will do better than some polling estimates.
Some 11.7 percent of Republicans and 10.5 percent of independents said they would not give their true opinion.