That’s according to a new analyst report that suggests Sony will be well-positioned to dominate with PS5 console sales, even without a cheaper PlayStation alternative. That doesn’t mean the Xbox Series S will not help Microsoft in terms of sales, with the cut-price announcement being seen as a positive development. But when it comes to the impact of the Series X and PS5 price, as well as the Xbox Series S release, one company is backing Sony to take the sales crown over consecutive years. Analyst firm Ampere Analysis posted a predicted sales forecast that includes the PS5 selling around five million units in 2020.
The Xbox Series consoles are estimated to sell around 3.9 million units over the same time period, with the gap between the competitors widening over the coming years.
By 2024, regardless of the price of the PS5 compared to its Microsoft rival, Ampere predicts 67.3 million PlayStation 5 consoles sold worldwide, compared to the Xbox Series hitting 44.3 million.
It’s a wide margin but not as pronounced as the one that separates the PS4 and Xbox One consoles.
Ampere is a data, research and analytics firm, specialising in media, content and communications, who shared this prediction after the Xbox Series S reveal:
“There is no doubt that Microsoft is better positioned to compete with Sony at the upcoming launch of the latest consoles compared to the Xbox One and PS4 generation.
“The company is more laser focused on the console gamer, will launch Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S at tiered price points to reach different types of console gamer, is expected to launch Xbox Series X at a similar price point to PS5, has invested a lot in its first-party studio capability and has been successful in building Xbox Game Pass into the biggest games content subscription service globally at more than 10 million users.
“Releasing two quite different products at the start of a generation is a significant change.
“It results in a more complex selling and marketing proposition, alongside all the subscription services and All Access offers, but an expected improvement in market share is a reasonable price to pay.
“The Xbox Series S at $299 sits below the pricing of the existing Xbox One X, so we expect this product to be removed from the line-up and Series S will offer more value to the consumer while also reducing Microsoft’s manufacturing cost base.
“There is still a role for a sub $199 Xbox One S product which will play most upcoming games anyway and will give Microsoft maximum flexibility when addressing a wide audience of potential console gamers.
“This does, however, leave Microsoft with less flexibility to inject sales momentum mid-cycle, but as the console market is all about initial momentum and keeping it, it is the right choice to load all its competitive capability at the front end of the cycle.”
In terms of the outlook for next-gen Xbox sales, the key assumptions made by Ampere are as follows:
Some sales of Xbox Series X will drop to the cheaper Xbox Series S.
A portion of Xbox One sales will transfer to Xbox Series S and result in a more rapid transition to next-gen (and pull forward some sales from later in the cycle).
Some more Xbox One S/X users will be convinced to upgrade at this lower price point compared to the Xbox Series X (expected at $499).