Romanian macroeconomic indicators and interest rate forecasts

BUCHAREST (Reuters) – The median forecast of a Reuters poll of analysts puts Romanian inflation at 2.5% year-on-year at the end of June, up from May’s 2.3%.

Analysts expect inflation at 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2021, within the central bank’s 1.5%-3.5% target range. The central bank’s forecasts for this year and next stand at 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively.

Four of six analysts expect the central bank to hold its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% at a meeting in July. Three see rates on hold at end-2020, while three see the benchmark rate 25-75 basis points lower from its current level.

Analysts expect the economy to fall 5.3% this year but rebound to 4.6% in 2021.