Trump's German troop reduction shows he's ready to play hardball over defence spending

Donald Trump is up for re-election as US president on November 3 - REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
Donald Trump is up for re-election as US president on November 3 – REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Donald Trump’s German troop reduction has been a long time coming and reflects three instincts at the heart of his sweep to power in 2016 and three-and-a-half years as US president. 

First, that America is being ripped off by its allies. The criticism is voiced across the board, not least on EU tariffs on US goods, but is aired most frequently in the when it comes to defence. 

Mr Trump has long hammered countries for not meeting the Nato target of 2 per cent of GDP on defence spending, often singling out Germany as one of the worst offenders. 

On Monday he accused Berlin of being “delinquent” for not paying up, directly linking his decision to reduce around 9,500 US troops from Germany to the issue. 

Germany is not alone. Mr Trump early in his presidency was itching to make South Korea pay for the American troops stationed there, despite generals insisting the US benefitted from having a military presence so close to North Korea. 

Mr Trump is transactional, seeing US deployments often in narrow cost-benefit terms. Germany is not paying enough on defence, he has concluded, so should get fewer of the ‘freebie’ of US troops. 

Second, “bring the troops home” has been a mantra Mr Trump has been repeating for half a decade now, one he has repeatedly attempted to enact while in the White House. 

His call to withdraw American troops is most often voiced in the context of the Middle East, seeing the region as a “blood-stained” quagmire not worth the US fighting over. 

He has announced twice the full withdrawal of US troops from Syria, before being quietly walked back by US generals. There are still thousands of American soldiers there. 

Yet the president’s instincts are clear. An isolationist at heart – despite his bellicose language, few new US military actions have been launched under his watch – troop returns are a win.

Dropping the number of US troops in Germany from around 34,000 to 25,000 will help Mr Trump tell his supporters he delivered on the 2016 election pitch to bring US soldiers home, even if many are still in the Middle East. 

Third, Mr Trump has long believed in creating leverage at the negotiating table. It was a theme that ran throughout his 1987 book The Art of the Deal, which helped create his deal-maker image. 

A Manhattan property mogul rather than seasoned diplomat or political insider, Mr Trump views himself as an expert at forcing concessions from the person on the other side of the table in talks. 

He advised Theresa May to sue Brussels to get the best Brexit deal. He put tariffs on hundreds of billions of Chinese goods while seeking a landmark trade deal. 

Warm words are fine, the president appears to believe, but hard action is what will force change.

By slashing troop numbers in Germany, does Mr Trump believe he can bounce the country into increasing its defence spending more rapidly? 

And then there is Angela Merkel. Mr Trump has never warmed to the German chancellor – an especially significant factor in this president given he views foreign policy in such personal terms. 

Ms Merkel’s visit to the White House back in April 2018 had made clear their lack of personal spark. 

Days earlier Mr Trump had welcomed Emmanuel Macron, the French president, with hand-holding, beaming smiles and bear hugs, leading to headlines about their “bromance”. 

At a press conference with Ms Merkel later in the same month there were pursed lips from both sides, combined with rhetorical courtesies but little apparent bon homie. 

“We need a reciprocal relationship,” Mr Trump said then, a nod to Germany’s lack of defence spending. “We want to make it more fair and the chancellor wants to make it more fair.”

Two years on, Mr Trump is still banging the same drum. In his eyes the relationship is still not “fair” – something the president hopes reducing troops can finally bring about. 

source: yahoo.com