When will the coronavirus vaccine be ready? Everything we know right now

Doctors and scientists are scrambling to develop a vaccine to stop the coronavirus, which is now responsible for over 250,000 deaths worldwide. It’s estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to ravage society until between 60% and 70% of the world’s population is immune.

There are currently more than 95 coronavirus vaccines being tested, with seven reportedly already in clinical trials, which means there are more scientists working harder and faster on finding a vaccine than ever before in the history of pandemics. But even if one of the vaccines now under development turns out to be effective, the FDA approval process typically takes a year or longer.

It’s still too early to make predictions, but here’s what we know so far about the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine that may help usher in an end to the current pandemic.

One more note before we get underway. This article is intended to be a resource to help you understand current coronavirus vaccine research. It isn’t intended to serve as medical advice. If you’re seeking more information about coronavirus testing, here’s how to find a testing site near you (and here’s another way for Apple Maps users). Here’s how to know if you qualify for a test and why there aren’t any coronavirus at-home test kits yet. This story is updated frequently as new information comes to light.

Read more: What it will take for life to return to normal after lockdown ends

Vaccines 101: What it is, how it works and how long to make one?

A vaccine is a medical treatment that protects you against a disease like the coronavirus. For a deeper dive into how vaccines work, check out this in-depth coronavirus treatment explainer by CNET’s Science Editor Jackson Ryan. But the short and sweet of it is that a vaccine tricks your body into thinking it’s already had the disease, so your body’s natural defense — the immune system — builds antibodies against it. Then, if you were to become infected, your body would call upon the antibodies to fight the virus before you feel sick.

Vaccines typically take about 10 to 15 years to develop. That’s in part because any new medical treatment needs to be thoroughly tested for safety before it can be distributed to millions or billions of people. The mumps vaccine took four years, which is widely considered the fastest vaccine approval in the history of infectious disease.

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The current coronavirus vaccine landscape

Last week, the White House announced “Operation Warp Speed,” a sort of coronavirus vaccine task force that has identified 14 vaccine projects it says it will focus on fast-tracking. The project’s stated goal is to have 300 million doses of vaccine available by January 2021. That’s a bit faster than the 12- to 18-month estimated timeline proposed by the US’ top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci.

As of this writing there are 97 vaccine projects underway in countries around the world, including the US, UK, Germany, Japan and China. Twelve are either already in clinical trials or starting in the next few months. Out of those 12, Oxford University seems to be leading the pack with a vaccine that researchers say could be ready by the fall of 2020.

How good are the odds for finding a vaccine?

Not great. Only about 6% of vaccine candidates ever make it through to market, and not just because they don’t work. There’s a whole litany of problems that could cancel even a promising candidate. Take, for example, what happened when scientists tried to develop a vaccine for SARS — it backfired and actually made people more susceptible to the disease. Same thing happened with a vaccine for Dengue fever. To make matters worse, coronaviruses are a large class of viruses and so far there are no vaccines for any of them.

However, this particular coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has some unique traits that may help researchers working on a vaccine. For example, some viruses, like the flu, mutate quickly and often, which is why there’s a new flu vaccine every year. This coronavirus doesn’t seem to do that. Although it’s still too early to be completely certain what will happen by the time a vaccine is ready, it’s thought that the virus has not yet mutated significantly enough to disrupt vaccine development, nor is it expected to.

What steps does a vaccine have to go through to get approved?

Rules and regulations vary by country, but, generally speaking, most industrialized nations have similar protocols for approving a vaccine. The following path is how vaccines are approved in the US under the Food and Drug Administration:

• Before clinical trials can begin: Once a laboratory has researched and developed a potential vaccine, which includes testing it in animal models and working out manufacturing and quality control processes, it can apply to the FDA to start clinical trials.
• Phase 1 clinical trials: The vaccine is tested for safety and effectiveness in a small number (dozens) of closely monitored subjects. 
• Phase 2 clinical trials: Various dosages of the vaccine are tested on hundreds of human subjects. 
• Phase 3 clinical trials: Thousands of subjects are enrolled to measure the overall effectiveness of the vaccine. 
• If a vaccine passes all three phases: The lab must then apply to the FDA for a license to produce and distribute the vaccine. That application is reviewed by both FDA and non-FDA scientists.
• If approved: The lab begins producing the vaccine while the FDA closely monitors production. 
• Phase 4: Although at this point the vaccine may be released to the market, many vaccines continue with what’s called Phase 4 studies, during which the FDA continues to review the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.

What happens if we never find a coronavirus vaccine?

The longer we go without a vaccine, the more likely focus will shift toward treatments, such as the experimental antiviral drug remdesivir, which has been showing promising results. Many viruses that used to be fatal are no longer death sentences. Patients with HIV, for example, now can expect to enjoy the same life expectancy as non-HIV-positive individuals, thanks to tremendous advances in treatment.

Without a coronavirus vaccine, the road back to normal may be harder and longer, but not necessarily impossible. Coronavirus testing, including antibody testing, and contact tracing efforts would probably need to intensify. Lockdown measures would probably lift slowly, although depending on how people handle it cities and states may bring them back, including requiring face masks and social distancing. Eventually, the global population may reach the 60% to 70% rate required for herd immunity to protect those who aren’t immune.