Following a batch of nuisance rain and wet snow prior to midweek, two significant rounds of rain are forecast to soak areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Northeast spanning Wednesday to Friday and could raise water levels on some area streams and rivers.
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The volume of people driving or taking mass transit to work has dropped significantly due to the increased volume of telecommuters related to the COVID-19 pandemic, but essential employees that must travel may encounter delays due to locally heavy rain. And, attempts to escape to the outdoors may be hampered for people staying home.
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The bulk of the rain will come in two rounds with the first arriving from Wednesday into Thursday. That round is most likely to bring a soaking rain all the way from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic coast. Along the mid-Atlantic coast from New York City to Washington, D.C., the bulk of the rain is likely to come from late Wednesday night to Thursday midday.
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It is in the wake of this first batch of drenching rain that temperatures are forecast to surge in the Eastern states.
The second batch of rain, which may involve some severe thunderstorms, is generally likely to focus from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes and northern half of the Northeast spanning Thursday and Friday.
A large portion of the Midwest will be hit with rain from both systems, which may keep more people from getting exercise and fresh air outdoors.
“Combined rainfall from the two storms is forecast to average 1-3 inches with the heaviest amounts and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 5 inches most likely in parts of the Ohio and middle Mississippi valleys,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Chicago will be hit with rain from both storms, with rainy weather expected on Wednesday followed by the second storm, which is set to bring another soaking from later Thursday to Thursday evening.
Even though the rain will not all fall at once, a significant part of the rain from both storms may fall over a span of a few hours and that could be enough to cause water to pond on some streets and highways.
“Since many streams and rivers are running higher than average for this point of the season, the new rounds of rain can cause small stream flooding and lead to new rises on some of the secondary rivers and eventually the major rivers,” Anderson said.
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The heaviest and steadiest rainfall with the pattern is likely to avoid many areas that have had the most extreme rainfall, relative to average this winter.
Jackson, Mississippi, has received nearly 32 inches of rain since Dec. 1, compared to an average of about 17.50 inches. The heaviest rain is likely to fall north of Jackson this week. Some rain will pivot across the lower Mississippi Valley, but rainfall in the Jackson area may stop short of 2 inches.
Rainfall, which will arrive in the form of some showers and perhaps some gusty thunderstorms, is not expected to be as heavy along the East coast as it will be back in the Midwest.
There are some parts of the mid-Atlantic where rainfall has been below average this winter, and wet weather could be welcomed.
For example, Salisbury, Maryland, has picked up only 6.20 inches of rain since Dec. 1, 2019, which is about 50% of average. The area is not officially in a drought; however, the drier-than-average conditions can pose a problem in terms of the spring brush fire season. Moderate amounts of rain could prove beneficial in wetting grass and brush in the short term.
Regardless, the showers and storms behind the second storm will mark the arrival of much colder air that will sweep from the northern Plains to much of the coastal Northeast and southern Appalachians by this weekend.
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