As a disturbance rolls across the southern Plains, locally severe thunderstorms, some capable of spawning large hail, may pummel portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas.
The storms are forecast to ramp up into the Tuesday evening hours and then remain active through much of Tuesday night. The storms will be fed by a stream of moist air from Texas and will move southeastward along a temperature contrast zone.
“The setup is most favorable to produce up to marble- and quarter-sized hail from the storms,” AccuWeather Lead Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker said.
 |
People in the primary zone for severe thunderstorms may want to park their vehicle in the garage, where possible, instead of in the driveway Tuesday night.
“While this setup is not the most ideal for tornadoes, any severe thunderstorm also has the potential to produce strong wind gusts,” Walker said.
An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, according to AccuWeather forecasters, who caution that the timing of this severe weather will add to the dangers. The storms will hit at night, so any tornadoes could be disguised by darkness.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
March is a month when there is a dramatic increase in the number of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially across portions of the Plains, Midwest and South.
This is because the strengthening sun causes warmth to build near the ground. Meanwhile, cold air lingers aloft and a strong jet stream is sometimes present.
Conditions that have somewhat kept a lid on severe weather so far this month with a few exceptions may change next week.
“We are getting concerned about a pattern more favorable for severe weather, and tornadoes may develop next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
“One of the things we look for are large undulations in the jet stream and it seems we are heading in that direction next week with a forecast big southward dip in the Western states and a northward bulge in the Eastern states,” he explained.
A strong jet stream will be present next week with a significant northwest-to-southeast temperature contrast zone over the Plains. Any storm system that moves through that zone can cause an eruption of thunderstorms and perhaps a severe weather outbreak.
AccuWeather will continue to provide updates on the potential for severe weather for the Central and Southern states in the coming days.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.