With the Cheltenham Festival just four days off and seeming likely to go ahead despite the spreading coronavirus, the thoughts of racing insiders are turning towards the Grand National, which appears to be in a more precarious position. The Aintree race on 4 April, four weeks on Saturday, is odds-on to be disrupted according to a betting market opened this week and the owner of Tiger Roll is prepared to at least contemplate the possibility of its being run without spectators present.
“I know it would be terrible for the British Horseracing Authority and for Aintree, their flagship event,” reflected Eddie O’Leary, who runs the Gigginstown racing operation for his brother Michael. But running the National behind closed doors would, he said, be preferable to postponing the race until such time as the virus allows crowds to gather, or even losing the 2020 running of the race altogether.
“Should we lose everything? You can’t postpone it. Where would you put it? July? You can’t. Absolutely, I’d be all on for running it behind closed doors.”
While O’Leary believes the threat posed by the virus is being exaggerated, he added: “We’re in uncharted territory. It’s endemic in Italy and they’re playing the football matches behind closed doors, so evidently that’s a way forward if they [the BHA] want it.”
Since the 19th century, the National has held its established slot in late March or early April, the thinking being that there is then enough juice in the ground to provide a cushion but not so much as to turn the race into a slog. Delaying the race into May or after would make it much harder to provide safe ground and might mean the marathon race being run in warmer temperatures than ideal.
O’Leary, and indeed the sport itself, has a particular reason for wanting this year’s National to be staged because Gigginstown’s Tiger Roll is attempting to win the race for the third consecutive year, which has never been done.
O’Leary added: “If it came to it, you could have Cheltenham without the crowd as well. You can’t delay it. Where are you gonna put it? And these horses only have a short career. It’s not what anyone would want but if the choice is an unknown delay or behind closed doors, absolutely go closed doors.”
Officials at Cheltenham could be excused for seeing that as rather a bleak prospect, given the enormous loss of income if its four-day crowd of over 200,000 cannot attend.
Aintree also stands to lose a great deal if spectators cannot attend next month, but the wider sport has a great deal to gain from running the National, whether or not spectators are allowed. Betting turnover on the race is famously huge and can provide a significant windfall for racing if an unfancied horse wins. And the TV audience is also enviable, peaking at 9.6m last year, with many times that number watching around the world.
Betfair opened a market this week, asking whether racing will go ahead at Aintree on 2 April, the first day of the three-day National meeting. “No” has traded steadily at around 4-6.
The BHA and Aintree declined to comment.
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day, by Paul Ferguson
Juveniles with a rating of 150 or higher going into the Triumph Hurdle are 4/10 during the past 11 years. During this period, only two horses were rated higher than 152, those being Peace And Co and Defi Du Seuil, who were both rated 155 prior to winning the race. Following his impressive display in the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle on his British debut, Solo has been allotted an official BHA rating of 157. Prior to last year, the previous nine winners had contested the Adonis, the Spring Juvenile, or the Finesse on their previous start, so there are a couple of notable trends pointing towards Paul Nicholls’s runner.
The Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2020, written by Paul Ferguson, is out now and available through this link for £15.95.
Friday’s best bets will appear here by 10am.
Chris Cook’s tips
Chelmsford
2.00 Sea Sister (nap) 2.35 My Girl Maggie 3.10 Tomshalfbrother 3.40 Baltic Prince 4.15 Social City 4.45 Havana Rocket
Ffos Las
2.15 Martha Brae 2.50 Massini’s Dream (nb) 3.25 Another Tuco 3.55 Nickname Exit 4.30 Never Equalled 5.00 Aqua Dude
Wolverhampton
5.30 Sonnet Rose 6.00 King Citric 6.30 Brigand 7.00 Silent Witness 7.30 Al Ozzdi 8.00 Hooflepuff 8.30 Arzaak