Following Uesi, which remained well east of Australia earlier in February, the next tropical cyclone to develop will most likely be closer to home.
The potential exists for at least one tropical system to develop near Australia in the coming days, threatening northern parts of the country.
Should the likely storm become a named tropical system by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, it would gain the name Esther.
“The environment on the northern end of Australia is conducive for the development of tropical systems with light wind shear and warm waters will be in place,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
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Two separate areas of open water could produce a more organized tropical system given these conditions.
One such area is along Australia’s Top End in the Arafura Sea or Gulf of Carpentaria.
Over the weekend, the tropical low in this area will be able to flourish and strengthen into a tropical cyclone as it drifts about the region.
This is when the storm will gather its heavy, tropical rainfall and gusty winds. Shipping interests in this area should use caution from late this week through the end of the month.
“By early next week, the low will be moving southwest, either approaching or making landfall in the northern part of Northern Territory,” added Nicholls.
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Heavy rainfall could extend from far northwestern Queensland through the northern half of Northern Territory through Tuesday. If the storm drifts far enough west, northern parts of Western Australia may also be affected.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) are possible in this area, with a smaller area of 100-150 mm (4-6 inches). Over a four- or five-day period, an AccuWeather Local StormMax™️ of 200 mm (8 inches) is possible.
The heaviest rain will follow the core of the storm, which may impact places like the Pellew Islands and Limmen National Park, as well as cities like Borroloola and Daly Waters.
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The above satellite image shows the clouds and thunderstorms developing along the northern coasts of Australia on Wednesday afternoon, Feb. 19 (Photo/RAMMB). |
Exactly how strong the winds will be, and thus how strong the cyclone becomes, will be determined by how much strength it can gather while stalling over the warm, open waters.
Wind gusts will be highest over the open waters in the Gulf of Carpentaria and near the center of the storm where it makes landfall. Wind gusts of 80 km/h (50 mph) are not out of the question in these areas.
The combination of wind and heavy rainfall may topple trees and quickly raise water levels of creeks and streams. Travel could turn difficult from Carpentaria to the Darwin area.
The second area for possible development is less likely to mature into a named system and will remain farther offshore from mainland Australia. Located south of the Greater Sunda Islands of Indonesia, the area of development could bring rough seas and impact offshore interests of northwestern Australia. This would particularly true if the low develops into a stronger tropical cyclone, which AccuWeather meteorologists currently think is unlikely.
As the system drifts westward away from Australia, the seas and waves should lessen through the end of the week.
The Australia cyclone season officially runs from November to April. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, over a 15-year average up to the 2003/2004 season, the average number of total cyclones in the season is 55, with about nine of those occurring in February.
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